Robbie Garrett
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Posts posted by Robbie Garrett
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2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:
Maybe. A lot of behavioural science being used, as well as 'pure' science. Could be tactically astute or a massive fail? Time will tell, probs.
The Police couldn't cope with the scale in the UK. How much more stockpiling needs to be done? Most people will now not have enough money to buy anymore.
Martial-law in this country would be very grey. Hence my feelings Army would need to be drawn in at last resort.
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Just now, D.V.R said:
sounds very similar to what is being reported.. Maybe you are netweathers patient zero
Aches and pain, cough, fever, headache mostly at front, nasal congestion, sore throat and tiredness. Can't remember if I had a shortness of breath though.
I would have interacted at work with hundreds of Chinese tourists and my local area has a few thousand residents (students etc).
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Just now, alexisj9 said:
Could be bet what about those who can't stock pile like me, haven't got the money.
The country has food-banks the size of multiple football fields. Hence the Army. I've heard things from people in places, and I think plans are under the way. Nothing of doomsday though!
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2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:
Just had a woman on BBC news that's recovered from the virus.. Again the evidence shows us that the worst period of the virus is the first three days and you gradually get better after that.
Overnight Monday 13th Jan I got ill. Worst was into 16th January when I quickly got better, bar the pain on my sides (which would have been my diaphragm from coughing?)
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Just a thought here. A lot of people are in the general consensus that we are heading for a catastrophe in the UK, but are we?
(1) Number of tourists currently in the UK had sheared off, if almost none. The last of which are going home in the next week, thus leaving the chance of rescue flights needed to nil.
(2) Number of offices working from home (reliable source most are on Level 4 (WFH), Level 5 is lockdown like Milan)
(3) easyJet plan to ground there entire fleet this week.
(4) People are panic buying weeks worth (Did the Government know that this is what would happen, thus reducing any stress of having to have the Army work on logistics?)
(5) Number of public using Public Transport is hugely down.
(6) All flights in/out of UK now are mostly rescue flights or people heading home (thus ensuring a tight seal)
(7) Eurostar are cutting services to 1 a day (in about a week) - Currently planned -
(8) Army in preparation to guard supermarkets and hospitals.
(9) Last but not least, saying almost all of us will get this (That's one way to lemon a brick?)
My point being - Is this the UK Governments tactic to scaremonger people to stay at home (with lots of food) to stop huge disorder on a terrible scale and then implement lockdown? Rather than go all out?
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46 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:
Testing has dropped because half the wibbleing population are in the supermarket
Or at home wondering where to stack 8 x 16 toilet rolls. Absolute tools.
Would love to see Army on the streets and scare the living daylights out of some of these people.*
*Disclaimer: Obviously not genuine people being scared.
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3 hours ago, emax said:
Oh dont get me wrong, you could sadly be right. I just think that we just really dont know for sure yet. Best to plan for the worst obviously, and I'm sure there are lots of people scurrying away increasing the NHS's capacity as we speak, and I guess the advantage is that we are at least (even if only a few days) behind other countries, rather than being at the front like Italy.
NHS is doing well from what my friend told me. He did say check back in two weeks. And that's from a London Trauma hospital.
Maybe our systems are used to being overworked and stressed?
Meanwhilst another day travelling in London, another day of filthy people sneezing and coughing without covering. Probably the same tools who stockpile bog role.
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Was explained why Paracetamol has run out in Boots today. Makes sense. China produces the raw ingredients > India makes them > India exports them. The first line has gone...
As Coronavirus Disrupts Factories, India Curbs Exports of Key Drugs - The New York Times
WWW.NYTIMES.COMThe outbreak has hobbled Chinese factories that supply India’s vast drug industry with ingredients for antibiotics and vitamins, raising the prospect of global shortages.-
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Just a thought.
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11 minutes ago, Snipper said:
So why was it so slow to kick in. Initial cases were all traceable to elsewhere
7 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:Lots of people I know (including myself, my wife and son) had really bad infections causing long lasting coughs etc from mid December until late January, makes me wonder what we had.
When I went to the doctors in Mid-January I had all the tell-tale signs of a Virus, hence why I was told that's all it was. Dry cough, aches, sinus, mild fever, sneezing, soar throat and then recovered in 3 days. But didn't feel 100% for 2-3 weeks after and had pain in my sides for a week or two.
Below is the chart with all the links of the UK strains for Mid-January. I'd say highly likely true as I work with tourists, many of them Chinese and I live with a huge amount of Chinese students who returned 10-15 days prior to me feeling rough.
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3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:
Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta has tweeted saying he's "Feeling better already"
Having it for 3 days and then feeling somewhat better afterwards is the general consensus isn't it?
2 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:We seem to be going into voluntary lockdown, which may be easier to enforce than mandatory lockdown?
Maybe this is coming from the Government in order to not induce panic of buying toilet roll and riots in supermarkets? Very tactical if so.
1 hour ago, kold weather said:There are three main strains of this virus, and 270 substrains which have been identified upto a week ago (there was a great 'family tree' which showed the different variations and where they were found)
So the likelyhood is the other two strains have also been doing the rounds at the same time as the Italy variation has been. The first strain was mainly found in Asia and parts of USA, the 2nd and 3rd mainly Europe with other various locations where they have been imported into.
Wish I'd saved it now, it made for some interesting reading, especially as we had the same strain Italy has now got.
This one. Almost 93% confident by Colindale that Covid-19 was in UK shores in Mid-January.
auspice
NEXTSTRAIN.ORG-
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25 minutes ago, kold weather said:
I think it's the opposite. Herd immunity for young and healthy should in theory help to protect older and weaker whilst that latter group practise social distances.
I think it's potentially important that there is some underlying science we don't know about that says this has done the rounds in the UK, and is doing the rounds in the thousands.
A lot of people are skeptical about the numbers and what China have said. Maybe there's info China has given the UK and what Colindale know about this virus.
Im also poitive the weather and low international traffic numbers to the UK has helped. Mostly due to Brexit. (?)
Bare in mind London has a direct flight to Wuhan when this was happening (Dec 2019). Then there is every chance that there's a lot of undetected mild cases in the UK since Jan 2019.
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3 minutes ago, swebby said:
Yes, hopefully so.
The 3.3% is confirmed figures however and so can be directly compared to the 5-15% that has been suggested for Wuhan and Lombardy.
3.8% of influenza per 100,000 people end up in ICU in the UK. Roughly 380 people per 100,000.
Must mean we have a less deadly strain floating in the UK? With flights going near empty and nothing to Italy/Iran now. This must be why they are going with the science. If 5000-10000 is correct that's an ICU admission far less than flu at 0.2 - 0.4% per 10,000.
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5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
CMO: Overall mortality rate is forecast to be 1% or less. Higher in vulnerable groups. Lower in less vulnerable groups.
In fact if 10,590 positive cases. 0.09% death rate.
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2 minutes ago, swebby said:
590 confirmed cases, 20 ICU = 3.3%.
That is reassuring in comparison to figures that have been seen in Italy and China.
Assumption of buttressing of case figures to be 10 to 20 fold. Really need to see Iceland's nationwide testing results to see how that stands up.
10,000 cases he said is likely. So lot less likely than 3.3%
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Just now, Snipper said:
The army have been poised for weeks.
Yes, but are all of them ready to take over the streets. The disorder will be higher than 2011 riots, and what do the Army do with them?
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Just now, CreweCold said:
That's 1% of the population.
Based on the almost 5% death rate we are seeing in other countries where the health system has been overwhelmed, that would mean only 14 million (20%) of the UK population would need to succumb to the virus in order to potentially see that 700,000 deaths figure.
We are currently running at 1.75%.
8 out of 456 cases. Not sure what the percentages are that are in ICU.
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23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Meanwhile Boris tells us to wash our hands, sing happy birthday and allows a quarter of a million people to mix openly.
Has he seen the reports from Italy?
WHAT IS GOING ON???
11 minutes ago, Ross90 said:You can only sustain what Italy are doing for a few weeks, a month max.If you go too early you might need to keep the country in lockdown for 2/3 months... if that happened here the economy would lose billions, possibly going into recession not to mention the longer it goes on the more likely there would be increasing public disorder.
5 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:BBC London news saying the capital could face restrictions within a few weeks.
Probably a bit too late by then!
How long do you think it takes to get the Army into action? That might be why.
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50 minutes ago, weirpig said:
So as a rough figure the amount of people tested to those who come positive is around 7% If we start testing 10000 people per day = scary numbers
Between 5-10% for every 30,000. Roughly 450.
UK Population 66,440,000/30,000 = 2214.66 x 5-10% (450)
If every UK person was tested. The case number is likely to be 996,600 - which is why I am 100% sure that there are many thousands, if not close to a million people in the UK with Covid-19 walking scott free with 99% of the population having mild symptoms.
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Travelled during the rush hour this morning. Victoria line Northbound at 0750. 1/3 of volume.
Might explain why the UK, along with the weather is still in "containment phase"
The UK is definitely doing as little to lessen the damage to the economy. Airports are already well deserted.
I'm sure the huge drop in % of people in the UK that are out an about and travelling through the borders has made HMG decision a little easier...
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Just travelled 1 stop on a commuter train. 10 people cough and or breathing heavily. Thst was a 10 minute journey.
It makes you wonder doesnt it. About 5 9f these didnt cover when coughing.
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2 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:
So why doesn't the UK have more cases? Logically, we should have more than we do. Something's not adding up!
Wet weather and majority of people staying in? I work in Zone 1, it's been dead since Jan 1st. Every weekend it's been windy and a nightmare to travel into London. Just a thought...
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1 hour ago, Donegal said:
Countries in Europe need to take extraordinary measures now or end up like Italy. Be proactive not reactive. Fanny about and you'll up in total lock down regardless.
It's as simple as this. If the UK does lock-down, the 2011 riots would seem small in comparison. The mass hysteria of buying bog role and 49p paracetamol and pasta can't have filled COBRA with any confidence, let alone the Met Police probably saying; don't even think about it. You would have to put the army on the streets, and in huge numbers.
9 minutes ago, Snowy L said:Just read that Cyprus had its first two cases and interestingly one of them got it in the UK. We have definitely missed a lot of cases for this to be happening.
Yes, it brings me back to my point a week ago. Mid-January, roughly 10 days when most of the Chinese Students came back to where I live, I got very poorly. Worst in 6 years by a huge margin and I definitely wasn't as proactively washing my hands and not touching my face back then. Didn't really recover till early February from that.
114,276 recorded cases. If you take the WHO R0, that's 228,552-571,380 that potentially have been infected. Looking at the Covid-19 Worldometer for the UK 4.7 cases for every 1million people.
Have a look at this though.
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3 hours ago, CreweCold said:
I am wondering whether some countries have already seen an explosion of the mild strain earlier on in the winter. Quite a few people giving accounts of a dry cough and breathing difficulties associated with it.
It could be that catching the initial strain may prove invaluable as to how your body handles the more severe strain. All conjecture but it is food for thought.
3 hours ago, Azazel said:Several people in here, myself included have reported the same.
mine was pretty brutal. Dry hacking cough, body aches, fatigue, fever and I spent a day or so struggling to breathe.
3 hours ago, booferking said:I had a really bad flu like i never had before but this was before Christmas felt hard to breath and really dry cough for over a week.
3 hours ago, CreweCold said:Completely agree, was nothing like any 'cold' I've had before. The reason it sticks in my mind is because I thought it unusual at the time and I remember being paranoid I had pneumonia!
Come to think of it, I did have something before Christmas; I spent the week in bed, and was very lazy - but it felt just like a very strong cold.
The thing Mid-January took it out of me, but I was also on Nights. Slept well though. Did you guys have pain on yours sides as well? Breathing was tense for about 2 weeks I'd say. Recovered early February, but the worse was over within 3 days of my fever peaking. Diagnosed by the doctor as a virus. I've seen it dismissed, but where I live in SE17 there's 6-7 blocks of Chinese students that attend the local Universities, along with a fair few living in my block. It's just the timing too, 10 days after I see them return in huge numbers I was sick with the above symptoms.
3 hours ago, kold weather said:Wouldn't be shocked if we follow suit in the next few days here, I think it maybe more towards the end of the week, but since there is a COBRA meeting tomorrow, they may well try and keep ahead of it.
2 hours ago, emax said:What with COBRA tomorrow, I should think tomorrow night/Tuesday, all will be revealed with regards to the UK's next step.
I still personally dont think this is going to be as bad as some are saying, and in reality most people will probably not be affected other than a cough or fever etc, however, Italy is definitely concerning now (not because of the numbers per se, as there may be lots of mitigating circumstances we dont know about) but more because of the possible strain involved. But as with anything like this, unfortunately, all you can really do is ride the rollercoaster and react as and when (ie generally reaction is after rather than before). No one knew how big Italy's numbers would become. Now we do, its already far to late to make any huge difference. But as I've said before, a week or two ago, numbers outside China weren't all that high, so you wouldn't know where the next big outbreak would come from. The only way to protect against this, is to shut down all international travel, rather than specific countries. Doing this though, for a major economy, would be suicide, especially if you're the only country doing this. Switch it around........we shut the country down internationally 2 weeks ago, the virus doesnt spread, most countries end up with very small numbers and it becomes a non affair.....there'd be far more complaints about the government I can tell you, and it would of affected way more than the virus ever could of.
I think it was the CMO who said its about waiting for cases to be high, but not too high, before we react. For the sake of the economy (which affects everyone, not just those prone to this virus), I agree with him. As I keep saying, its a fine line to walk. I understand those that think they will get this virus because of underlying issues are worried, and wanted the country shut down weeks ago, I do understand why you hold that opinion, honestly I do. BUT, for the 80-90% of the population who arent at risk of being affected severely, their jobs and livelihoods need to be considered too!
2 hours ago, CreweCold said:When you see stuff like that, how can you not feel that the government has already decided to let this spread?
I don't think it's a case of letting it spread, but a case of a few hundred deaths vs billions being wiped of the economy. Sadly waiting for the situation in Italy to happen to the UK is one scenario they've already mentioned, the problem is they feel the NHS is up to it. Or are they just setting it up to fail, just so they can sell it off in the aftermath?
I did Business Studies at A Level, and Business Management at degree level. Only 2008 and 1987 have seen greater falls than this, and that worries the Government from taking the next steps. But then the 2010 Ashcloud cost airlines then £10m a day (£14m in today's money). I am sure this already close, hence Flybe tipped over the edge. I'd say Flybe lost £100m+ leading up to recent days, and I wouldn't put it past the likes of BA, easyJet loosing similar.
I'd say crippling the NHS (Wuhan-N-Italy Style) is probably more economically damaging than closing airports, borders and "Delaying" the spread by closing all public transport networks. I know Kings College Hospital was full in January, I had a family member wait two days for a bed. If that's true across the UK, then surely the Government must think logistics and prepare for Italy shutdowns or better still, Christmas Day style closures for x number of weeks. Maybe except supermarkets and pharmacies.
The Police couldn't deal with a 2011 style riots today, as that's exactly what will happen with the generation we have today. You would have to have the Army on the streets. This in a nutshell is exactly why the shelves in supermarkets are empty and why no matter what efforts the authorities put in place, sadly the virus is well and truly out the bag and unstoppable in the UK.
23,500 cases (maybe slightly less) have called 111 or there GP with symptoms of Covid-19 and 1.16% have returned as positive. With a R0 of 2-5, there's going to be likely 546-1365 cases over the next few days.
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COVID-19 Pandemic
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
Yes transport systems, supermarkets and hospitals surgeries to be kept open. Once MOD is ready along with the majority of people in the right position will a recommendation to stay at home be issued.
One problem in the future we may face next; 4 weeks of delay due to lack of Transatlantic capacity! It coincides with a disruption in sea freight because empty shipping containers are stuck in China. However, UK Government was stockpiling for Brexit, so that may be used.