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Posts posted by Robbie Garrett
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1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:
According to his profile he hasn't logged on Netweather for over 3 years since October 2020 so I guess not.
Just checked. That's a shame
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Does @Glacier Point still frequent these forums? His views on the models were awesome
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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Exeter having nothing to do with EC or GFS ,if anything their updates suggests Euro High or HO to the south .
Part of the long-range forecast not updated yet; Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Sun 12 Nov 2023
Normally done by 1500.
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I saw this posted on Twitter earlier; a tripole anomaly in the Atlantic clearly shows a band of cooler waters sandwiched by warmer waters to the north and south. The cold winters of 2009/10 and late 2010 were characterised by a similar tripole pattern in the North Atlantic which produced a negative NAO.
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Interesting 06z run - goes for height rises to our SW/W from the Azores. Jetstream starts to buckle
Semi reliable time-frame - wonder if further runs will start indicating this? Somewhat similar to the UKMO line of thinking.QuoteFrom mid-month, the most unsettled conditions are likely to transfer further north, with areas further south perhaps having some drier spells of weather at times. Within these drier spells, some overnight frost and fog is possible. Temperatures mostly close to normal for the time of year, perhaps becoming mild at times later in the south.
A cut off low below the high in the Med
Wonder what's causing the height rises and the evolution of a Scandi high over the UK towards Mid-End of November.
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43 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:
I do remember reading years ago that statistically, cool and wet November's gave the best chance of a cold proceeding winter. It was quite specific. Dry November's did not bode well. Wet and warm November's also didn't bode well. Specifically cool and wet were the best harbingers for a cold and blocked winter.
Considering this is how November 2nd was in 2010
It's not bad 2023
Things can change very dramatically.
End of November 2010
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GFS in FI now hinting at what the UKMO was suggesting on Long-range forecast...
360hrs NH
384hrs EUR
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10 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:
Lightning and booming thunder to my SW (London) out of nowhere.
Gunshot thunder just now.
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Lightning and booming thunder to my SW (London) out of nowhere.
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Few cells firing over London behind that main band. Presume nocturnal cooling.
Sporadic pulse cells it seems.
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Multiple thunder booms. MCS I presume?
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6 minutes ago, Harry said:
Lightning flashes becoming super frequent now!!! No definite thunder yet though!
I can get hear very distant rumbles to be fair.
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Flashes in the sky at the moment in London. Mostly distant.
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5 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:
After this the ECM builds high pressure back in again, not really supported though.
Rinse repeat maybe? But definitely a hint from the UKMO long-term of settled weather.
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So is this a "Medicane" or a "Derecho?"
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SIGMET Showing TOPS at FL400-FL430 in those two cells. Almost tropical.
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From the Royal London Hospital Helipad earlier
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Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
A lot more convective than forecast. Just has a decent thunderstorm, ball bearing size hail and lightning, two claps of thunder.
More bubbling up in the distance.