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Robbie Garrett

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Posts posted by Robbie Garrett

  1. On 28/07/2018 at 16:18, Blessed Weather said:

    Excellent tweet from Ben Noll:

    "The late-July SST anomaly pattern in the tropical Atlantic during 2018 is the complete opposite of 2005, which was the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. The difference is striking."

    July 2005 878426228_SSTAnom26July2005.thumb.jpg.bba28b7f324a555139b2cfc360a23849.jpg July 2018 63935751_SSTAnom26July2018.thumb.jpg.519a08acb45189c330bb63b5fc8f4cbe.jpg



    Interesting that where the SST's are quite high there's a marked increase in activity off the coast of West Africa on the ITCZ.


    • Like 1

  2. 2 minutes ago, danm said:

    Quite conceivable that the July record of 36.7c set at Heathrow in 2015 could be beaten today. 


    2 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

    Just looking at Heathrow today, it's been going up by about 1.8*C an hour since sunrise.  It's currently 31.8*C so I am predicting about 36.5*C at max diurnal.  Is that highly reasonable that 36.5-37.5*C is the maxima today?

    Yeah I'd say so.

  3. 6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    06 was about on par with 16/17. Near the start of a minima. 

    95 was about on par with 16/17 since the 96 minima was not all that deep (there's a not unreasonable chance that 2018 beats 1996).

    83 was not close to a minimum and the minimum of solar cycle 21 (1986) was so poor that it is not in the top 25 years for spotless days.


    I see what you are getting at but 2018 has more in common with 07/08 in terms of solar activity (we are running between the two to date) than any of the other years albeit 06 and 95 were similar (mainly because the minimum of 96 was pretty weak).   



    Brilliant response.  Maybe there's some form of lag between solar cycles and climatology?  11-12 years is very consistent.  Was 1973 a +19*C CET?

  4. 11 minutes ago, Dean E said:

    Just regarding the Met Office Amber warning area, which took me by surprise given that Central Southern England seemed more at threat with Severe storms than The South West according to model outputs earlier. (Would love to see their models right now)

    But this area has caught my eye. Rapid clearance of any clouds during recent frames indicates the main area for potential IMO. With steering flows being NNW, this puts everyone in the Amber Warning area at risk. Possible good call by the Met? We shall see.


    Yes - I am seeing this also. But I think the amber warning might need to be extended eastward.  Winds are pretty much from 150* heading NNW. I am more on the thinking that the Level 1 by Estofex is best bet for an extensive coverage of TSRA.


    • Like 1

  5. On 07/05/2018 at 21:23, Sunny76 said:

    Yes, it was pitch black for an hour or so. It must have been something unusual. Haven’t seen anything in London as dark as that since.


    On 08/05/2018 at 00:54, stainesbloke said:

    I read somewhere that cloud tops were approaching 60,000 feet that day, as reported by various pilots. 


    On 08/05/2018 at 12:07, Sunny76 said:

    11 miles high? I can’t imagine how scary that must have looked over London.

    I work near St Paul’s in central london, and sometimes think about that picture in the newspaper, where the skies are pitch black and St. Paul’s is covered in darkness.

    Also reminds me of the Pink Floyd video and A Guide to Armageddon(nuclear war doc on bbc early 80s)

    That's pretty rare to get 60,000ft.  The stuff we've had the last few days has been circa 35-37000ft - must have been a pretty good vertical development to go into the stratosphere.  Although I suspect if we keep having pre-longed weather like this we will get a a heavy heat spell and huge storms afterwards.