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Robbie Garrett

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Posts posted by Robbie Garrett

  1. 2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Can anyone post a TAF for Luton Airport please.


    METAR EGKK 311850Z 08011KT 9999 BKN011 M00/M02 Q0985=

    TAF EGKK 311702Z 3118/0124 09012KT 9999 SCT020 PROB30 TEMPO 3118/3120 4000 -RASN BKN009 TEMPO 3120/0107 3000 -SN BKN007 PROB40 TEMPO 3120/0104 1200 SN BKN003 PROB30 TEMPO 0104/0110 BKN004 PROB40 TEMPO 0107/0119 4000 -SN BKN009 BECMG 0118/0121 35010KT PROB30 TEMPO 0119/0124 BKN010=



    METAR COR EGLL 311850Z AUTO 09011KT 9999 FEW018 01/M01 Q0986 TEMPO 4000 -SN=

    TAF EGLL 311658Z 3118/0124 08012KT 9999 SCT020 TEMPO 3118/3121 4000 -SN BKN010 BECMG 3121/3124 3000 -SN BKN005 PROB40 TEMPO 3121/0109 1200 SN BKN003 BECMG 0109/0112 02010KT 9999 NSW SCT020 PROB40 TEMPO 0112/0120 4000 -RASN BKN014 TEMPO 0120/0124 8000 BKN012=



    METAR EGLC 311850Z AUTO 09016KT 9999 BKN010 01/M01 Q0988=

    TAF AMD EGLC 311826Z 3118/3121 08013KT 9999 FEW030 BECMG 3118/3121 BKN007 PROB30 TEMPO 3118/3120 4000 -RASN TEMPO 3120/3121 3000 -SN=



    METAR EGGW 311850Z AUTO 10013KT 9999 BKN007 M00/M01 Q0987=

    TAF EGGW 311702Z 3118/0118 11012KT 9999 SCT010 PROB40 TEMPO 3118/3119 BKN006 TEMPO 3119/0110 3000 -SN BR BKN004 PROB40 TEMPO 3121/0110 1000 SN BKN001 BECMG 0102/0105 05012KT PROB40 TEMPO 0110/0118 1500 SHSN BKN004=

    • Thanks 1

  2. 49573181_2004262392944297_56752851053591

    In 2018 I flew 23 hours across 1900 miles.  It's been a hugely tough year personally, but it's not enough to shadow the love for flight despite a 6 month sabbatical due to financial reasons.

    Visiting Southend

    ILS approaches and good experience...


    Flying above the clouds more regularly

    Lots of weather avoidance and good IMC practice...


    Views of the biggest car park in the world


    Longest flight I've completed so far


    Yummy food in France


    Diverting to Southampton due to Weather at Destination


    Frontal flying


    After 6 months way it was time to see more sunsets


    In 2019, the plans afoot are even bigger...


  3. On 28/07/2018 at 16:18, Blessed Weather said:

    Excellent tweet from Ben Noll:

    "The late-July SST anomaly pattern in the tropical Atlantic during 2018 is the complete opposite of 2005, which was the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. The difference is striking."

    July 2005 878426228_SSTAnom26July2005.thumb.jpg.bba28b7f324a555139b2cfc360a23849.jpg July 2018 63935751_SSTAnom26July2018.thumb.jpg.519a08acb45189c330bb63b5fc8f4cbe.jpg



    Interesting that where the SST's are quite high there's a marked increase in activity off the coast of West Africa on the ITCZ.


    • Like 1

  4. 2 minutes ago, danm said:

    Quite conceivable that the July record of 36.7c set at Heathrow in 2015 could be beaten today. 


    2 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

    Just looking at Heathrow today, it's been going up by about 1.8*C an hour since sunrise.  It's currently 31.8*C so I am predicting about 36.5*C at max diurnal.  Is that highly reasonable that 36.5-37.5*C is the maxima today?

    Yeah I'd say so.

  5. 6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    06 was about on par with 16/17. Near the start of a minima. 

    95 was about on par with 16/17 since the 96 minima was not all that deep (there's a not unreasonable chance that 2018 beats 1996).

    83 was not close to a minimum and the minimum of solar cycle 21 (1986) was so poor that it is not in the top 25 years for spotless days.


    I see what you are getting at but 2018 has more in common with 07/08 in terms of solar activity (we are running between the two to date) than any of the other years albeit 06 and 95 were similar (mainly because the minimum of 96 was pretty weak).   



    Brilliant response.  Maybe there's some form of lag between solar cycles and climatology?  11-12 years is very consistent.  Was 1973 a +19*C CET?

  6. 11 minutes ago, Dean E said:

    Just regarding the Met Office Amber warning area, which took me by surprise given that Central Southern England seemed more at threat with Severe storms than The South West according to model outputs earlier. (Would love to see their models right now)

    But this area has caught my eye. Rapid clearance of any clouds during recent frames indicates the main area for potential IMO. With steering flows being NNW, this puts everyone in the Amber Warning area at risk. Possible good call by the Met? We shall see.


    Yes - I am seeing this also. But I think the amber warning might need to be extended eastward.  Winds are pretty much from 150* heading NNW. I am more on the thinking that the Level 1 by Estofex is best bet for an extensive coverage of TSRA.


    • Like 1

  7. On 07/05/2018 at 21:23, Sunny76 said:

    Yes, it was pitch black for an hour or so. It must have been something unusual. Haven’t seen anything in London as dark as that since.


    On 08/05/2018 at 00:54, stainesbloke said:

    I read somewhere that cloud tops were approaching 60,000 feet that day, as reported by various pilots. 


    On 08/05/2018 at 12:07, Sunny76 said:

    11 miles high? I can’t imagine how scary that must have looked over London.

    I work near St Paul’s in central london, and sometimes think about that picture in the newspaper, where the skies are pitch black and St. Paul’s is covered in darkness.

    Also reminds me of the Pink Floyd video and A Guide to Armageddon(nuclear war doc on bbc early 80s)

    That's pretty rare to get 60,000ft.  The stuff we've had the last few days has been circa 35-37000ft - must have been a pretty good vertical development to go into the stratosphere.  Although I suspect if we keep having pre-longed weather like this we will get a a heavy heat spell and huge storms afterwards.