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Robbie Garrett

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About Robbie Garrett

  • Rank
    Qualified Private Pilot

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    London, UK
  • Interests
    Flying, Aviation, Weather, Formula 1,& Football! (Oh and girls) so everything that moves basically :D

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    robbie.garrett

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  1. In terms of a debrief, I think the English Channel has something to play here and has done for the last 20 years. I wish I had of print screened it but the MetOffice app was showing the rain 30-40 miles west of where it currently is. Maybe more. I wonder if it's the warmer sea surface temperatures vs last millennia. Presumably in the 90s, the cooler channel would feed the storms whereas today the temperature gradient is different and thus the winds are slightly different as a result. I say this because when we have a strong easterly we get Snow CBs. The air aloft is cooler than the SSTs whereas in the Summer the plume is warmer. So you'll have a strong gradient between sea and air aloft. I know that the warmer SSTs in the tropics feed the cells. But they are FL500+ whereas the UK rarely sees FL340+ due to the tropopause, but they are different beasts in nature. What was the SSTs of the Channel between 1990-1999 and 2000-2010 and 2011 and 2019? Because this local variation of change means the winds are different and obviously less conductive to imports. Its obviously a fraction of degree difference or something that's stopping these imports from what the models predict to reality. Even up to 1/2 hours out. Thoughts?
  2. Can Supercells multi cluster into an MCS or is this most likely in the ITCZ?
  3. I'm on a 6pm-4am night shift tonight. Will hope the best action is at 4am, as it will be daylight and I'll walk across London Bridge with the city as a backdrop or The Shard. Will be radar watching for sure.
  4. I presume it's the intensity of said storms. It's very rare to get FL300/FL350 tops here in the UK. The tropopause sits normally at FL280-FL330 It's maybe something to do with the fact that it's either unusually high or the storms are busting through it. I've known of a cell that once blocked a BA Nairobi-London flight from coming in via Southampton, but instead had to route via Dover in via Lambourne (Epping forrest) due to the shear size. Something like FL580/FL600. 60,000ft tops.
  5. Doesn't look like anything like a multi-cell that we crave but more rather isolated imports. Issued: 11:02 (UTC+1) on Fri 21 Jun 2019 Thunderstorms are expected across parts of England and Wales at times on Tuesday. Storms are likely to spread north from France early in the day, before developing more widely later. Whilst some places may miss storms altogether, where they do develop 20-30 mm of rain could fall in one hour, with a few spots perhaps seeing as much as 40-60 mm in one hour, which is very unusual for the UK. Large hail, lightning and gusty winds are also likely.
  6. Quick one from me. MetOffice weather warning bang on. Exact details would always be hard to pin. But the latest Synoptics from 0100-1300 paint the picture and direction. Radar paints that its associated with the direction of the trough. White lines not accurate but I'd say it pinpoints an area of interest. SIGMET & AIRMET states its moving at 25KT to NE. I'm interested to see what the cold front does and how much energy is interjected into the core.
  7. Guys I am flying to France tomorrow and hopefully back to London before the big storms arrive. So if it's the biggest since the 1990s, it's because I am airborne lol.

    1. Spikecollie

      Spikecollie

      Where to in France Robbie?

      Bring your shorts and t-shirt even if it's a short stay, we've had 31c today and it's still 27c out here!

      Hmm...northern France can be a bit of a devil, storm-wise, and certainly there is a bit of activity progged for tommorow http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-france/metropole

      It's hit and miss as usual with storms but I've had a few instances where the Paris airports have shut for a while during the worst of the electrical activity. If it's flying that you're a bit worried about, don't be. They'll get you there safely, maybe a bit late so have an extra coffee or glass of wine. They won't set you off in anything unsafe and the view of receding CBs is nothing short of breathtaking from aloft. As they say - sit back, relax and enjoy your short flight - and get cloundspotting!

    2. Robbie Garrett

      Robbie Garrett

      I went to Le Touquet for the night.  I was the pilot. I flew in a small aircraft 🙂  Flew back this afternoon.

    3. Spikecollie

      Spikecollie

      Le Touquet is a nice little airport! I've never flown in or out of there but I did have occasion to camp nearby a couple of times and visit the car rental desk (we had a fuel pump failure in the car near Berck on one of our trips and it was over an Easter weekend so we were a bit buggered but happy to camp for a few days and have a rental car while things got sorted as we had all our gear with us). 'Twas amusing as we took a few walks with our dog and quickly realised that the huge garages in the pretty affluent neighbourhood were not garages at all. They were hangars for light aircraft!

      Sorry to affront your dignity as a pilot but you came across as a nervous passenger! I always try to assuage flying fears as there is an awful lot of needless suffering out there! I've done upper hundreds of thousands if not over a million miles and haven't died, so I always figure it's worth passing on the karma.

      When I get enough money together, or find a willingly suicidal donor, I really want to learn to fly. Something gravitates me toward gliding first - the silence up there I guess among the clouds or even lack of them.

      I could be horribly cheeky and suggest that if you fancied a flying trip to the Nouvelle Aquitaine region (crappy mouthful, we still call our bit Limousin!) then I'd pay for the fuel to at least fly over my village...I don't have the space to put anyone up in the house but we do have a nice little piece of land (our nature reserve) where folks are welcome to camp.

  8. Talking of wettest months and miserable Summers. Here's 2007, 2012 and 2019 (so far) for rainfall amounts for Heathrow, EGLL. I've included 2018 for comparison. It will take a lot for the 2007/2012 June's to be beaten, I'd say 2007 is easily reached, but 2012 will be harder. Source MetOffice weather historical data!
  9. Personally when I was younger, I don't really remember much in the way of individual small thunderstorms but more so intense night-time storms. There was one big one late October in the 90s, there was a few huge overnight storms with the curtains rattling in the wind before huge electrical shows across London in the Summer. Not sure if anyone remembers the Brixton Market Bomb in Iceland? I was 7 at that point, and I remember Thunder and lightning all that evening. I was so scared by the Thunder, when that bomb went off I hid under the bed. The decline I think is down to the strength of the jetstream, the way high pressure forms across the Nern Hemisphere and this means that we always fall foul to a lack of imports. Last May was probably the closest we got too what I experienced as a child. But it was not even as intense as I remember. In fact I can't remember a day where there's been extreme heat followed by evening to morning Thunderstorms since early 2000s.
  10. Belts on till leaving the South East I reckon. Like crew strapped in for the majority of the departure up and until the cruise.
  11. They say curiosity killed the cat.  But I am curious to think how polar opposite this Summer is? In fact, for me it feels very British. Rather than "Climate change".

    1. Katrine Basso

      Katrine Basso

      This is more typical of what we usually get and I remember years when it was not usually for rain stopping play at Wimbledon (which became a seasonal tradition to expect rain) but in the past summers that has become a rarity.  I'd rather see seasonal and typical weather in all the British isles seasons.

    2. Robbie Garrett

      Robbie Garrett

      That's why I think we will get heat, but nothing on the scale of last year. Probably a traditional late 90s style summer with plenty of rain.

  12. I bet, they always do really well. I just think it's the angle of the weather now; the way the natural systems flow across the earth.
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