[Novel Coronavirus – China]

2 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I’ve read peoples opinions and interpretations because I’m not smart enough to make my own conclusions.

some chatter about smoking actually being beneficial in the sense it inhibits ACE2 expression making it harder for the virus to get in.

would be absolutely bizarre and so very very ironic if smoking actually had a chance at saving your life.

Now watch all the cigarettes sell out!!

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

4 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

That must be assuming that there's no attempts to stop it surely? I'd be very confident in predicting that everybody on the planet will not have had it in 6 months time.Even if it doesn't die back during the summer the numbers will be in the millions not billions.

I think this assumes my worst fear which is when attempts to curtail the spread become impossible and access to treatment is non existent.

I'm praying it never gets to that point but i think it's not out of the question.

And what happens when people are too afraid to go out or go to work?

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

This on the BBC:

Understanding how the coronavirus is mutating is vital.

A team of Chinese scientists have effectively played a complex game of “genetic spot the difference” with 103 coronavirus samples.

Their findings suggest there are two distinct “strains” of the virus, but what this means is speculation.

The researchers have found differences in the genetic code of the two strains, but they do not show this alters the behaviour of the virus.

They do not prove one is “more aggressive” than the other, as has been reported.

That will require further experiments and the researchers themselves say the amount of data they have to work with is “still very limited”.

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

Just now, Azazel said:

I believe there is an L strain and an S strain? Not sure which is the more severe but if I remember rightly, they reported that the more severe strain was less common and the milder strain was more infectious and outpacing the other.

It would suggest you can be infected twice, once by the two different strains. I believe a person was tested in China or Japan and found to have both strains.

Well I wish I hadn't asked now, could that explain the higher fatality rate currently seen in some areas and why the WHO have increased the estimated fatality rate to 3.4%?

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

I am certainly no expert so please don't shoot me down, a genuine question. 

If there are currently two different strains of this virus circulating and you contract and recover from one of them would you be immune to the other?

If not then would that suggest there lies the possibility of a second round for some?

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

Maybe we should all club together and buy an island somewhere? Entry to only those who have completed two weeks quarantine. 

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

5 minutes ago, emax said:

Recovered cases is a bit of an awkward data set, as illnesses are still ongoing. I guess ideally you would want to go back a week or so, and pick the cases that where confirmed then, and how many of those cases have recovered so far.   

It can certainly give a "rough" idea of how long it takes to recover though, on average.

Fully understand that, my response was regarding the comment of only 3000 cases compared to the population. An increase of nearly 600 in a day is significant, particularly when only 276 have recovered so far from the start of the outbreak in Italy. 

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

39 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Put it this way for Italy, they have a population of 27,million with 3 thousand infected cases. Things may change, but those are the current numbers.

I like the optimism however total recovered so far 276, new cases today alone 587.

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

20% chance of becoming seriously ill.

Thats really high.

Yes and if unable to get care then the 3.4% CFR goes out the window! This really is time to be concerned and we all need to try and do our bit to try and limit the spread, but it may not be that simple.

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

33 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

What about if someone in that Tesco Express had been sick a week ago? Or how about someone suffered a heart attack? Alternatively, why not just lock yourself away?

Oh dear. Why on earth would you go to somewhere where the virus has been confirmed and risk spreading it to others if the place has not been deep cleaned? And heart attack? what has that got to do with it?

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

5 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

So, if a person in your area was diagnosed with it and 3 days before the announcement he or she had visited their local tesco express, would you decide not to go to that shop for a week or something?

If it had not been deep cleaned then probably yes i would steer clear. Surely people should be allowed to make educated choices.

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

16 minutes ago, emax said:

You what? What use exactly would giving locations do? Unless you give out names and addresses, its a complete waste of time to update it every day. 

It either causes hypochondriac panic in the named locations, or complacency in locations that arent listed!

If the government contingency plan is to contain this as much as possible then surely it would be prudent for people to avoid areas when they become problematic?

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

1 minute ago, emax said:

Thats obvious surely? Touchscreens of any kind are riff for virus and illnesses etc etc. I've always thought touchscreens in food outlets are a completely bonkers idea. You may as well order your food and eat it in the public toilet!!

I was more refering to the length of time the virus can survive on the surface, nearly a week.

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

4 minutes ago, Paul said:

There are numerous reasons I'd imagine - maybe it's because (based on their faq's linked above) it lasts from a few hours to a few days on surfaces. Whereas flu is about 24 hours tops I believe. Maybe it's related to the viral load count in droplets for some people. Maybe it's that people can still spread it when their symptoms are very mild, which increases risk as they may not be aware they have an illness at that point (again using info from their faq's). 

Without more information from them (which I'm sure will be forthcoming at some point), it's all conjecture though. But there's nothing in what he's said or the advice given by the WHO, NHS etc that suggests it's not spread mostly by droplets at this point.

just seen this:

The public is being urged to clean their smartphone screens with alcohol wipes twice a day to help prevent the spread of the coronavirus. 

Covid-19, which has infected almost 80,000 people globally, has the ability to lurk on the flat surface for almost a week unless its disinfected, researchers have claimed. 

Oh lord!

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

1 minute ago, snowdog said:

Of course even if that was correct, it would mean double the amount of people at risk of death when it's added to the normal annual flu figures. Also double the pressure on the NHS

Is it possible I wonder to have both flu and coronavirus at the same time?

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

This currently on the Worldometer site, I had to read it several times

 239 new cases and 8 new deaths in Italy. Among the 1,049 active cases, 401 (38%) are hospitalized, and 105 (10%) are in intensive care. Among the 79 closed cases, 50 (63%) have recovered, 29 (37%) have died.

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

4 hours ago, swebby said:

Oh crap, potentially translates to 10,000 to 20,000 cases then.

I actually hope it does in one sense or there is the potential the virus could of mutated into something far more deadly and that does not bear thinking about!!

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The trouble is I'm surrounded by simpletons

Lol, yes there are plenty to go round.

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

25 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

People are too selfish for that. It'll be dog eat dog if this gets out of hand.

If it ever did get to that stage the intelligent ones would club together, safety in numbers and all that. The lesser brained are welcome to fight it out.

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

How???   -   If its game over then someone standing round my bed asking me if i am ok (risking their own life in the process) isn't going to cut it for me if i know i am going to die.

Er not everyone is going to die, the human race will survive and i'm sure most on here have every chance of surviving. There is an awful lot of people on the planet and in context the deaths so far are a tiny fraction.

It is a terrifying prospect what may be ahead but we don't know what that is yet.

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

So we are absolutely buggered then - knew it all along, this really does have the hallmarks of something very suspicious indeed - told people all along - this is armageddon

We just have to hope if this does get out of hand that humanity will come together and help one another.

Hopefully it will not reach that stage? 

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

what is the CFR?

Case Fatality Rate

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

20 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Things are getting so 'down' in here that it might be time we employed a Thread's Counselor: someone who, when one's feeling a little sad or confused (or maybe even just a little 'under the weather') just happens to exit the turbolift, at that very moment...And offer wise, patronising words and an inane grin?

I'm not sure if I should laugh, cry, go on a shopping spree or hide in the wardrobe!!!

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

One example of how easily things could change very quickly in any town.

2 new cases in France, in the village of La Balme-de-Sillingy, in Haute-Savoie: they are relatives of the first contaminated in the town: a man who had returned from a trip to Italy and whose wife, friend, and friend's wife then contracted the virus. The infected friends had then participated to a 120-guest gathering on Feb. 15. "It is quite possible that there are many more cases in our town," said the mayor, who admits "being worried".

 

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

This article on the BBC contains some disturbing claims, sounds like it will be business as normal until it's too late....
I've copied just the main interests, interpret this as you will

Article - Coronavirus: How is the UK planning for an outbreak? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801

"The hope is it can still be contained
The government has said the UK is prepared for all eventualities.
Ministers and health officials are still working on being able to contain any outbreaks in the UK.
There has been no transmission within the UK, but even if there is, that does not mean containment is defeated.
So what happens if containment fails?
Containment should not be seen as a win-or-lose game. Even if it fails, it will have bought the UK valuable time. Scientists will be closer to a vaccine being developed and if containment lasts until the spring or summer, the milder weather will help.
There had been some hope the virus would find it harder to spread in warm weather - although the experience of other countries so far shows that is not the case.
Nonetheless, delaying an epidemic until the summer would have the added benefit that the NHS would not be under so much pressure to cope. It is currently in the midst of its most difficult winter for a generation.
Currently there is no treatment or cure, so hospitals are trying to relieve the symptoms. Specialist equipment called ECMO is available at a small number of units to support the most severely ill patients if their lungs fail.
Under the Civil Contingencies Act, the government can close schools, shut down public transport and stop mass gatherings to protect the public.
But all the evidence suggests those measures are not particularly effective at stopping the spread of something like coronavirus.
What is more, there has to be a balance between public safety and economic and social impacts.
Closing schools, for example, could disrupt exams and force parents to take time off work.
New legal powers have been given to force people to stay in quarantine. But this is a measure more about containment than a practical step that will be taken in the event of the virus becoming an epidemic in the UK.
The government and NHS simply do not have the facilities to contain many more than a few hundred people.
In the event of mass transmissions, responses will be co-ordinated at a central level by the government's Cobra committee and locally by 43 "resilience forums" in England and Wales."
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I know people keep saying there are thousands of deaths every year from seasonal flu but the rate is estimated to be 0.1%, if you do the maths on the current known cases 82526 divided by 100 and then times by the deaths 2812 that currently gives 3.4%