Chris K

I noticed this earlier today with the ICON and AROME models both going for 2 areas of rainfall with some interest for more western areas tomorrow morning during rush hour. However the latest AROME has since dropped the idea. ICON 12z still goes for it around 7am for the W country but whether this modelled rainfall is active in terms of lightning is up for debate.

Ye looks pretty disappointing for the SW and W country now. Although we won't really know until it all appears on radar etc, the first round of storms seem to initiate North of us and then anything that develop in the channel goes on a NE trajectory through C/E England.

Are you looking at just surface CAPE and LI, or MUCAPE as well? There are so many factors when it comes to forecasting storms. Check out this site - it has been quite useful for me! http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/

Most models and forecasts suggest the highest risk for thunderstorm activity will be reserved towards the SE corner of England. Personally I think parts of the SW and West Country will be very lucky to see anything other than rainfall, but glancing thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. It would be best to watch the radars and lightning detectors now really. The Met office warning areas often cover a broader area to encompass this overall risk (likelihood and impact), but it doesn't mean everywhere in that warning area will see severe weather.

That was a weird experience. A storm just exploded into life right above our town in a line just North of Bristol. Not seeing much lightning, but constant rumbles of thunder above and just hammering with rain.

I have my eye on that not sure if it will be heading NE though. Quite a bit of lightning.

A few strikes detected around Bridgwater now - showers seem to be developing quite rapidly.

A couple of rumbles North of Bristol coming from the thundery showers to my SE. Looks like more developing behind heading this way a bit later this afternoon

Not sure if it will amount to much, but a line of precip seems to be developing just West of Oxford, stretching down to the S coast.

Recent charts have got me back into storm hunting mode for the year Potentially some thundery showers dotted around next week, although the low pressure is tending to push in from the West rather than dive towards Iberia now. Interesting charts for Tues afternoon/evening and into Wednesday morning on the GFS, but I wonder if this is more general bands of rain/showers than storm potential?

After a few flurries it has stopped absolutely dry as a bone here yet apparently under ppn on radar.

Given up and just going to lampost check now and again. Met office rainfall forecast just shows it all fragmenting as we progress through this evening/night. But radar seems to be pepping it up in places.

Mentioned this earlier. Certainly looks like it is heading that way!

It has just started lightly snowing here North of Bristol. Not much but it has started.

Nothing unusual about large organisations doing this. They announce snow warnings at our workplace and recommend considering our travel plans. If everyone decided to leave as soon as it started snowing, it would probably create more chaos than if people filtered out over time and went to work from home etc. Hoping the front doesn't weaken too much as the Netwx-SR model is pretty underwhelming for Northern parts the W Country (in my view). A now-casting time nevertheless and radar looking good.

Lovely crack of rain breaking right up through Bristol channel the Severn estuary/valley. Bleurghhh It'll just have to be a case of now-casting and see what happens!

To be honest, the combined risk from the lasting ice on untreated surfaces could be more of an issue, hence the warnings.

No need to apologise. The very nature of meteorology is chaotic and frankly any interpretation and opinion of current model output is welcome. There will always be changes in output and being the UK where it is, tiny changes can significantly alter our near term forecast, never mind 5-10 days down the line.

Agree - The fax charts are going to become a key item to watch when it gets to this sort of timeframe. Even a transient spell of snow would do me right now

Haha. Some of us won't be seeing anything other than rain, perhaps hail/sleet. Continuing to pin my hopes on looking ahead unfortunately! For those that are seeing snow and like it, enjoy.

Indeed it looks like the high is further west because that LP system to our North is weaker. The Jet has buckled on a more SE trajectory earlier on the most recent chart.

I can understand the frustration, as i feel that many on here move on to wanting spring warmth as soon as 1st March hits. The Azores high, whilst not an unusual feature, has been influencing our weather too much so far this winter. The constant grey skies are tedious for me and frankly any change is welcome now. My interest is in weather extremes and not seasons. Last March I had some of the best snow drifts I have ever seen. It may have thawed more quickly, but it was fantastic to witness. I remember driving towards the severn crossings with snow blowing across the road. For all I know I'll never see that again, so even the smallest hint of snow keeps me positive, even if I have to wait until March! If that high gets a chance to push North (or even up from the Pacific to the Arctic) and the euro trough signal remains, it would improve our chances going forward

This is the model output discussion thread for the whole of the UK and beyond. Go to the regional threads if you do not care what happens up in Scotland.

I get the feeling that the GFS may be being a tad over progressive here. There are still some disagreements between the main models of the depth and track of the LP systems and until these are resolved, there could still be changes ahead in the short term. Whilst the fantastic coldageddon charts may have disappeared, the overall picture may still remain positive. ECM will be interesting later, to see if it sides more with UKMO or GFS. I may be interpreting the charts incorrectly, but in my eyes, the 12z GFS high that collapses towards Iberia would not need much change to head up NE across the UK and maybe somewhere favourable from there? God damn another UK high..hope not!

If a block unfavourably sets up, maybe. However it gets slightly bemusing when just because this time round it could "fail", suddenly 3 weeks worth of weather is decided...I don't think so. Overall theme is still positive of a euro trough. Everything just needs to go right for the UK to get the amazing cold spells...which is difficult!