Chris K

My nan always used to say a snowy period often followed a stormy one. Old folks crazy weather sayings and all that It sounds really wild out there right now and being exposed to the Severn Estuary makes it even more noticeable. I haven't heard the trees in the local woodland roar like this for ages!

I swear people put up trampolines in bad weather on purpose...

Yea looks like that will be the batch due to head in from the S/SW later this evening with some squall like features included..

Better hope Friday's storm doesn't upgrade as well - already looks bad!

With a bit of luck the timing of the rain means we get a bit of a lull during this afternoons rush hour, until the next washout moves in late evening onwards. Winds will still be strong though with lots of surface water around obviously.. No respite for the last minute Xmas shoppers and those travelling around!

But at the start of December we were staring at the prospect of a sceuro blocking high, so the charts are not exactly the same shed.....look how they changed in a matter of a few days...Quite frankly my focus is on this coming week, with potential of severe weather over the Christmas period looking likely now. My search for cold and snow can wait on the backburner.

Yes but as already stated there is some consistency between models showing a deep low pressure around the 950-960mb mark being situated near, or over the UK, on Xmas/Boxing Day. I do agree that we need to wait and see what the models show towards the weekend though before it becomes likely to verify.

This is why I still hold interest even if charts show unrelenting weather systems coming in from the Atlantic. There are always little surprises that can crop up to keep everyone on their toes! Now I don't expect any snow here where I live, but will be interesting to see if parts of higher ground in the Cotswold's end up with something from that potential shortwave, as it is not far from here! Main story though looks to be wind and rain for now!

Just like the Euro high that people said would last for weeks only several days ago? Whilst this pattern may take some shifting....I don't think I will be relying solely on March quite yet! Uncertainty remains for the week ahead regarding the systems heading in from the Atlantic - never mind 2 months in the future.

Yes that was it. Sorry John it made it look like I was misquoting you.

I could probably provide you with one factor as a basic explanation. The reason for these storms moving NW of the UK is due to the path of the Jet Stream coupled with how intense it is. Due to the injection of much colder air into the Atlantic meeting the warmer, moist air from the South, there is a higher temperature gradient which causes the Jet to intensify. These storm depressions tend to form along the Northern flank of the Jet and follow the path of the jet stream until it finds it's 'exit point' and weakens after becoming 'detached' from it. Overall though, I believe the prevailling direction of the Jet Stream as it nears the UK is from SW to NE, hence why they are following this rather 'classic storm track'. Also, if the models have exaggerated how much energy is in the Jet as well as the direction of flow, as we approach T+0, the depressions may be weaker and/or move on a different path.

True, however I still stand by the fact that posters don't say it in a way like you have just now. It is all down to interpretation and too often people write that a pattern may persist for weeks on end without stating the fact phases of different weather will occur inbetween. Exactly that was my point....but without making it sound like I'm calling people dumb...similar to my response to shed above - people can mis-interpret this fact and go by these posts that say we are on course for so called 'locked in scenarios'. All down to each person I guess.

I think it was more to do with the fact people were saying we'd be locked into a pattern of H Pressure limpeting over C europe for 2-3 weeks and some even saying 5 weeks+. It was pretty clear a mild spell of weather was incoming when the models were being consistent in showing so for this week. The fact there are differences in outputs as close as later on this weekend is proof really that no matter what solutions are being shown from the outputs (be it mild or cold)...it is simply unreliable to look that far ahead. A couple of days ago the runs were showing a limpeting high pressure right from start to finish! I'm not saying it is now suddenly showing cold weather coming to our shores, but there does seem to be even more emphasis now of a change in weather as we head into next week - perhaps to a more unsettled 'tad cooler' phase.

The fact some of the model runs over the last day or two don't show high pressure stuck in exactly the same place right from start to finish, kind of gives me hope there are signals of change being picked up. What the change to will be and when that is I have no idea... however what I will say is that I certainly don't understand the logic behind some posts today, basically saying we could be locked in this for 2 weeks, 5 weeks, 2 months, the whole winter etc... FI model output is just as unreliable whether it is showing milder or colder solutions, even if we are favored milder weather due to our location. Unless somebody has some statistics to prove otherwise??

9 May 2008. Have had a few thundery showers since then, but that night was the last proper big thunderstorm I have seen. Hours of lightning from a stalling cold front moving in from the SW against a very humid airmass being fed up from the S/SE.

So....4 days into December. Winter's over posts galore already because it looks like a mid-latitude block may persist in giving us s/SE'erlies...? I didn't think an FI chart showing blocking high pressure, giving us debatable mild weather, was any more likely than one showing a block providing with us with cold..or am I wrong? I do agree that there is currently support for this high to set up over Central Europe for some time yes....but to me when mild weather is shown it is suddenly a dead cert for 2 weeks+ going by posts from some...?? Just look at the changes we have had in the past couple of days... And whilst people may get annoyed by posters banging on about mild weather...take a moment to sit in their shoes and read pages and pages of people searching for cold (PS I love cold and snow - don't hit me) One thing I am dreading though....is if we get days and days of slate grey skies...

Can i Just say thank you for a forecast that has been written so well. I went straight into the in depth technical forecast, and I realise sometimes it can be very difficult to explain such detailed information to amateur learners such as myself, but in all honestly it was so easy to follow and an excellent read. Great stuff!

Its interesting that cold charts keep showing in FI with constant hurdles to overcome to get there. Whilst it may just be the usual FI drama, it makes me think whether the signals are there for a more 'substantial' shift to cold weather are being picked up (as some sort of consistency), but with all models being overly progressive in finally getting there. I suppose this post is a bit like saying "winter will come eventually" after reading back over it and patience is the key word yet again....

Yea I am getting sleet mixed with the rain from a shower we just had. Mostly rain though Feels mighty chilly still!

Haha thank you. 2 of my favourite things - lightning and snow all in one picture :PNow only if it came true....

Brrr morning all. Crisp morning here North of Bristol! Sun rising with that winter feel in the air. Love it

Not sure how people can say certain models are 'right' or 'wrong' when the forecasted charts haven't even occured yet? People have been saying a mid-lattitude high has been more likely than any Northern blocking and this continues to show in this mornings outputs. If the High does end up slapped over the UK, it doesn't look mild as clear skies will be more likely with it centered over us. Details of cloud cover (if any) won't be certain until nearer the time though. There are hints of the high eventually sinking, but for now, I don't see any 'zonal' weather in sight apart from the rather inconsistent FI range. Cold, settled, frosty with some late autumn sunshine looks likely for now. No snowmageddon that many desire I know, but I'm personally pleased with the outlook after the recent 'wetter' phase of weather we have had. And you never know the High might end up migrating northwards at some point instead of sinking...but that is something to look out for as we progress towards late November.

Well forgive me if so but it is hard to tell from forum text! :PPersonally if the high settles over the UK it could at least provide some crisp sunshine if set up inour favour...I just hope it doesn't end up with raw cloudy easterlies...

Hmm it COULD take a while to shift but that depends on the over NH pattern in my opinion. I certainly don't think it would last 3 months....

Few weeks....? Got any evidence to suggest it will last that long apart from assumptions?