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Chris K

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Everything posted by Chris K

  1. Not sure whether to expect much for my area of the W Country tonight. Most forecasts show things dwindling just before reaching here. Seen that a few times in recent years. Perhaps my best chance will be any showers that develop Saturday afternoon. Good luck down on the S coast. Looks like a decent chance. Always hope a heatwave ends with a bang but I usually wake up to a grey, cool mess
  2. The 18z GFS at first glance seems better for prolonging thundery outbreaks from the South though?
  3. Just had a few rumbles here North of Bristol, looks like it is from the shower over the Severn Estuary heading North/NW. First of the 2021 "season". Won't be long before I'm crying at 3am in the morning when a plume of storms die down 20-30 miles before reaching me
  4. No snow here from this easterly at all (We had a couple cm though in January for a day I guess, so more than some have had... Very cold couple of nights at the 'peak', ice was actually quite limited though as it was quite windy! Remembered more for putting up my heating bills rather than anything interesting weather wise Hoping for something in March, but if not, looking forward to some warmer weather and to resume my storm hunting
  5. Very unsettled start, gradually calming and quite cold since then. A brief couple of cm of snow that melted quickly the day after in Jan. Not expecting much from this current cold spell to be honest as any snow moving in from the SW is showing to either fizzle out and barely touch the UK or push through and sweep milder air in more quickly. Maybe a chance of battleground snow, but models seem to be reducing that risk at the moment with a more boring goodbye to the cold for this part of the country. We'll see!
  6. I really want to agree but not comfortable until there is cross model agreement at close timeframes. GFS has been on its own before and then the others have moved towards it to meet "half way", if you know what I mean. Small disturbances that crop up at high res could impact things down the line (Hopefully for the better. )
  7. Some flurries in Thornbury north of Bristol. If the stuff falling around Gloucester keeps up may seem some more shortly!
  8. Nice deep rumbles from the shower to my E. Skirting along several miles away, but nice to see!
  9. A fair bit of lightning going on up here just N of Bristol with distant rumbles Didn't expect this to be honest!
  10. Indeed..but still closest to current radar obs in my view (compared to the others). Different resolutions though.
  11. Definitely been a repetitive theme past few years now...best storm activity seems to initiate further North over, rather than South of the UK during plume type setups.
  12. Not as optimistic as earlier for here, unless the showers West of the channel islands move up towards us and develop further into storms. Anything that is approaching the W Country seems to keep fading away. A recurring theme in recent years is of activity kicking off in the morning to the N/NE, so my bet is on that happening
  13. Keeping my eye on these that have started to develop for later in the night. Met office had it crossing right over the W country in the early hours, but not sure if it'll just be standard showery rain behind the band moving in front.
  14. I wouldn't take precipitation charts too seriously and just watch the satellites and live radars instead from later today to watch developments. Countless times I have had rainfall from storm forecasts shown right above me but ends up missing me 100 miles to my West or East. How well do models pick up elevated storms? Am I right in saying rainfall is often less with these types of storms, as it evaporates before reaching the ground? Is that common here?
  15. I'm sure this has been a regular occurrence in recent years with regards to bad timing with overnight storms...may be my subjective memory though!
  16. A couple of rumbles of thunder to my North from that shower band. Another band to my South. Sunny here inbetween haha....
  17. Just saw a couple of flickers of lightning to my North looking towards Gloucester direction.
  18. I live about 6 miles north and haven't heard anything. Hopefully spot a flicker as it drifts by to my east.
  19. Few more developing off the S coast a tad west of the previous ones, so may head towards Bristol directly?
  20. True and it looks like showers developing across some C/S areas could develop as they trundle North?
  21. Noticed those showers cropping up - might get lucky as they drift by!
  22. Seems to be some showers developing in the channel that may have parts of the W country's name on it. We were just outside most warnings but unless steering winds start shifting it more east (or they fizzle out), they look to be heading this way later.
  23. Shame it's just that bit too far North and East of us today by the looks of things! Guess I can't be too greedy though after Tues night.... ?
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