Summer Sun

Yep it didn't last long at all at 07:10 I couldn't see the car for snow at 09:17 its all gone just goes to show how quickly it melts at this time of year down at low levels Outlook for Monday to Wednesday: Staying cold with overnight frosts. Variable cloud, with perhaps a few isolated light wintry showers, and also some bright or sunny intervals. Mainly light winds.

Yeah trouble was it was too cold last week

The ECM De Bilt ensemble has the Operational and Control around or above the zero line for the bulk of its run

A look a GFS, ECM and BOM Access at t240 GFS has the cold hitting the east of the UK before getting pushed into eastern Europe The GFS ensemble average has the uppers at 0c to -4 The ensemble average for the latter part of its run is to lower heights over Greenland and build pressure over the UK BOM keeps the uppers at around -4 to -6 with the high staying over the UK ECM is the coldest of the 3 with the low sinking south pushing the Azores high back bringing a renewed cold blast Until the ECM ensemble run is out in an hour or so we don't know what support this will have

The low to the east continues to sink south with the Azores to the SW As it continues to sink into eastern Europe we get another cold blast

Slightly less cold uppers over the UK at t168 But that doesn't last long as t192 brings this

Something wintry for the south?

No I have a large Garden

ECM is setting up another easterly at t120 GFS full London ensemble

12z London ensemble to the 6th shows a slight rise in uppers upto next Saturday with virtually no rainfall at all which continues to be the big positive giving places chance to dry out after last years exceptional rainfall

They getting that desperate now there looking at the permutations lol Its fine for coldies to post snowmageddon type charts (and sometimes thats it no comment) in the winter but when those of us looking to get some overdue milder weather we get shot down! Anyway my search for something more seasonal will continue next up GFS ensembles then ECM

I think it was the MOGREPS model Alex Deakin used in his April predictions forecast on the BBC world channel on the 27th - http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/21961844 - 1:40 its viewable from

Yep a few light flakes in the air hopefully there should be a big improvement this weekend I and hoping to get my potatoes out and cover them with plastic to keep the worst of the overnight cold off

John Hammond from BBC weather has given an outlook for April also on there is a glimpse of the MOGREPS 2m temperature probability model which covers the period from March 29th to April 8th http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/21977085

Welcome aboard lol anyone is welcome to join Looks like tomorrow and Sunday could be better with lots of sunshine and light winds

A good outlook from GFS tonight with the northern blocking easing GFS is now also hinting at pressure becoming lower over Greenland Temperatures recover to normal or above normal for many Slowly but surely things are turning better during April and its going along with the met offices thought's earlier That's upto April 12th

UKMO is slowly loosing the coldest uppers by Monday GFS for the same time

Met Office defends forecasting http://uk.news.yahoo...12.html#oUHTccm Britain's colder than the Arctic: -10c freeze over Easter http://www.express.c...eze-over-Easter ARCTIC EASTER http://www.dailystar.../Arctic-Easter/ Forecasters predict respite from Spring Freeze on Easter Sunday as biting easterly winds fall away but temperatures won't get higher than 5C http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz2OwXr1nKj Bleat the cold Lambs get woolly jumpers to survive -10°C Easter http://www.thesun.co...l#ixzz2OwZHfB76

I hope all has gone well for you

The end appears to be in sight again with today's met office updates UK Outlook for Wednesday 3 Apr 2013 to Friday 12 Apr 2013: Towards the end of this period, there are signs that this prolonged cold period may start to wane, as winds become more westerly in nature. UK Outlook for Saturday 13 Apr 2013 to Saturday 27 Apr 2013: There remain signs of a transition from the current colder than average conditions to more typical conditions for the time of year taking place during mid-April. This would leave the rest of the month with nearer average temperatures, albeit still with a risk of overnight frost. Meanwhile, in the absence of any strong signals for trends in precipitation later this month, the most probable scenario is for rainfall to be nearer average. Given that the first half of April is expected to be drier than average, this does imply that at least some parts of the UK are likely to be more unsettled during the second half of April. Its going to be interesting to see if the models start to pick up on this trend during the next week ECM picked up on a trend to something less cold last night but dropped it this morning If ECM is to be right then it will be hats off to it by picking up this trend so far out

Sunshine in Darlo now you can certainly feel the warmth in the sunshine now

A rise from the ensembles now to the end of the run

Weather: Economy Hit By Spring Snowstorm Britain's fragile economy has been hit hard as a result of the spring snowstorm with some businesses reporting a slump in trade. Some high street retailers say the cold snap kept customers away during what should have been the run-up to a busy Easter weekend. Kingfisher, the owner of B&Q, reported a 13% drop in trade, while Next said it had seen a fall in sales during the bad weather. Experts say the costs to the economy of the unseasonable weather could run into billions of pounds and threaten to impact on economic growth figures. Some towns were cut off by the snow for up to a week making trading difficult on the high street. In the Derbyshire town of Bakewell, which was badly affected by the snow, businesses were hoping the cleared roads would encourage locals and tourists back into the town. Zoe McBurnie, owner of the Bakewell Tart and Coffee Shop, told Sky News that takings had dropped by £10,000 in just one week. "The recession hasn't been too bad to us but the snow has been completely devastating. "One minute you're busy and the next there's no-one coming in because the town is cut off by snow." Some of the biggest losses were on farms where hundreds of livestock, including sheep, lambs and cattle, were claimed by the snow drifts. On Nigel Birch's farm near Monyash in the Peak District, three calves lay dead on the yard, victims of the worse snowstorms there for 50 years. Hundreds of sheep had to be taken inside and fed on expensive corn feed whilst stocks of silage were running low. As lambing season enters full swing, newborns were left shivering in freezing conditions and had to be kept under heat lamps. "This has been a very difficult week - one I want to forget," Mr Birch said. "We've lost cattle, we're paying for new hay, feed and silage and in the end I think this spell will cost us between £5,000 and £10,000." Tourism was also badly affected as roads became impassable and families chose to cancel holidays. Nikki Dick, a B&B owner, said her diary was empty as guests were reluctant to book or could not get to her because of blocked roads. "If I look at last year's diary for the same time it is full. This year we have a few bookings, but after that there's nothing. "People have panicked and thought they're best to stay away. "But the snow has been cleared, and we're all here open for business," she said. http://news.sky.com/story/1071362/weather-economy-hit-by-spring-snowstorm

Met Office three-month forecast was 'not helpful' The Met Office has admitted issuing advice to government that was "not helpful" during last year's remarkable switch in weather patterns. Between March and April 2012, the UK experienced an extraordinary shift from high pressure and drought to low pressure and downpours. But the Met Office said the forecast for average rainfall "slightly" favoured drier than average conditions. The three-month forecast is said to be experimental. It is sent to contingency planners but has been withheld from the public since the Met Office was pilloried for its "barbecue summer" forecast in 2009. Last spring's forecast has been obtained by BBC News under Freedom of Information. The Met Office three-monthly outlook at the end of March stated: "The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April-May-June, and slightly favours April being the driest of the three months." A soul-searching Met Office analysis later confessed: "Given that April was the wettest since detailed records began in 1910 and the April-May-June quarter was also the wettest, this advice was not helpful." In a note to the government chief scientist, the Met Office chief scientist Prof Julia Slingo explains the difficulty of constructing long-distance forecasts, given the UK's position at the far edge of dominant world weather systems. She says last year's calculations were not actually wrong because they were probabilistic. The Met Office forecast that the probability that April-May-June would fall into the driest of five categories was 20-25%, whilst the probability it would fall into the wettest was 10-15% (The average probability would be 20%). The Met Office explained it this way: "The probabilistic forecast can be considered as somewhat like a form guide for a horse race. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21967190

Down to 3.0c to the 28th