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StingJet

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Posts posted by StingJet

  1. 5 minutes ago, Nath said:

    Would that cause a possible storm surge down the East coast, it looks frightening that chart!

    The Storm is forecast to bag out Friday as it moves further north and east, I would anticipate that the wraparound northerly will be markedly reduced in strength come Friday, to that effect minimising any notable storm surge down the east coast .... Nonetheless¬† the north sea not the most hospitable of places come Thursday, Sorry for the duplication .. I don't post often ūüôā¬† Spent most of my forum time over the years on the GPS SpeedSurfing Site running the UK StormTrack Topic.

    • Like 5
  2. GFS 12z still dialling in an F10 Bomb for Thursday, support from the Jet Stream is also amplified from this mornings 06z run, MetO 12z also amplifying Thursday's Storm, but the Jet taking the Storm further east towards Denmark.  I cannot recall a Storm of 950mb located over the North Sea in my 30+ years of Storm Tracking;  Oct 87 and Jan 2007 being the most notable.   

     

    image.thumb.png.fcab47e3072024fe1f52d3643f1c0682.png

    image.png

    • Like 5
  3. 50 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Sticking to the reliable, about 120hrs tops and only just.. dominant feature is low pressure system developing to our SW set to advance NE to affect whole UK by Tuesday, and becoming absorbed somewhat by the long wave trough to our NE. Consequences are a deepening and stalling hold in situ position, colder air aloft will dig into the system on its western flank as it moves east. 

    Thereafter every chance of secondary low or trough features to zip through underneath, with fine cold/mild boundaries. 

    A fluid and developing situation. I'm not looking beyond about Friday right now, situation is too chaotic.

    Definitely fluid mate¬† ūüôā¬† The secondary low modelled up at present swinging in across the UK Wednesday into Thursday is the feature to keep a close eye on. At present the GFS is on an "all guns blazing" super amplification¬†approach, as ever, with the system rapidly deepening from 980mb to 950mb in 24hrs from Wednesday evening through to Thursday evening.¬† For me there is not enough support from the Jet Stream at present to support such rapid¬†intensification.¬† MetO and ECM taking the less intense route with 975mb.

    "The dig in of cold air on the western flank" of the secondary as I see it ,  may be the trigger to dial in some significant "wintery hazards"  lol .  

    Eyes on it.

  4. 4 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    Wow, I do not think I have ever seen a cyclonic circulation as huge as this one from ECM at 240t.

     C

    ECMOPNH12_240_1.png

    That's a monster!! .. 935mb any closer to the UK with 1035mb over the Azores , would present a new angle on a UK Wide "White Out" ...............  an "Isobar White Out"  Pressure differential across the UK would be unprecedented

    • Like 4
  5. 19 minutes ago, StingJet said:

    Agreed BA Looks like an anomalous chart, it will no doubt resolve itself on the next update. What is more disturbing for me is the Storm System tracking east across Scotland today to be centred just off the ne coast of England 06z tomorrow , Severe wind warnings in force for NI, Wales and the Sw, yet no mention of the East Coast of England tomorrow, contrary to Met Office Shipping forecast and Inshore Waters forecast which has the wind up at F8-F10 down the eastern seaboard, with the Wash to Cromer being in direct line of fire for the NNW flow, no hunt for cold there , it will be bitter with the wind chill well below zero.

    I now stand corrected Met Office @ 10:56 updated their Severe Weather Wind Warning to include the East of England for tomorrow

    • Like 2
  6. 48 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Am I invisible ????

    i believe that fax is incorrect as it has identical placement of all pressure centres as per the T96 from last night 

    Agreed BA Looks like an anomalous chart, it will no doubt resolve itself on the next update. What is more disturbing for me is the Storm System tracking east across Scotland today to be centred just off the ne coast of England 06z tomorrow , Severe wind warnings in force for NI, Wales and the Sw, yet no mention of the East Coast of England tomorrow, contrary to Met Office Shipping forecast and Inshore Waters forecast which has the wind up at F8-F10 down the eastern seaboard, with the Wash to Cromer being in direct line of fire for the NNW flow, no hunt for cold there , it will be bitter with the wind chill well below zero.

    • Like 1
  7. 1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

    Does the GEFS mean chart at the end of the run (T384) suggest to anyone else that it doesn't have a clue?

    gens-21-1-384.png?12

    The only thing we can take from that is that the weather will apparently be green, except for the south.  Damn that M4 again, south of that it's just murky yellow - folks in the south on the wrong side of it again!!

    and also no wind Mike ... looks like the output of a corrupted data set

  8. 23 minutes ago, Ian Price said:

    Could well be. Green echoes on the radar over us, but not a single flake!

    Same for Anglesey been light green / orange (pink / dark pink if you enable "weather type on") ,  all afternoon but nothing falling from the sky.

    Perhaps the snow is a little shy up north and is waiting for darkness to fall :)

  9. 11 minutes ago, Rhosyn o Loegr said:

    Is that the shades of pink plot? Thanks.

    It is .. also helps to see what precip type is coming in on the one map,   as the forecast for "less frigid" air pushes in to the south with the chance of snow precip turning to freezing rain. Still does n't explain why Anglesey is sat under darker shades of pink and nothing failing from the sky .. as of yet ....?

  10. 2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    Should be an amber out for this snow! Literally could get tons by the end of this afternoon.

    Metoffice now upgraded Valley on Anglesey for Heavy Snow for the rest of the day. Dop Radar showing the same level of precip as Cardiff yet still nothing falling from the sky .. bizarre  .. .send some north please buddy :)

    • Like 1
  11. 8 minutes ago, snefnug said:

    Is the radar working?  That big angry blob of Emma between mainland Wales and Eire just seems to be hanging there not really moving.  Also, where is this evening’s snow coming from?

    Had to chuckle when the MetOffce turned off the least used services due to high demand on the site - I would not consider the Rainfall Radar Observations one of the least used services - especially during big snow events. The Netweather Precip Radar appears to be working, but I agree all the Precip appears to hanging over the Irish Sea and not marking any progress to the west. Here on Anglesey radar indicating light to moderate snow all morning, yet nothing has fallen this morning .. so I have my doubts that all is working as expected.

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