Stuie

Flicking through the NH profile for the PV going forward. Current charts are slowly showing the recession of the PV due to the time of year. Chasing April? Not worth it. 2022 - April 15. 2023 - March 25 Due to always being excited for winter snow, never really looked in the opposite direction before looking for dry/warm. Will give it a bash this year. EDIT: The trusty `CFS` for April 12.

Looking at the GEFS diagrams, looks like an outlier run from the OP around the 19th. This sort of coincides with the ECM but in the other direction. 2M temps still look steady though and a minima of maybe 5 overnight.

Take it easy mate. Maybe by then the ECM will stop trying to shove out outliers, couldn`t manage on the 0z lol

Think the towel may have to be thrown in. Chasing a late month whatever spell isn`t something I can get on. NAO pretty much neutral until end of month scatter. GEFS 850`s although look like scatter past the 20th, it`s only a few members. 2M temps not showing a dip either. EDIT: Or you could go with the CFS into April if that`s your FI.

Another day, another ECM outlier from 0z, await 12z... (Whenever they turn up) EDIT: and here it is, blimey model is a mess at the min.

Had some pretty decent hail, well biggest for a while.

Back edge wet snow/sleet NW Essex. That`s going to be it.

Yep and getting to the point of no return. Noticed yet again the ECM has churned out a bizarre outlier, only 5/6 days ahead also. If this was a 1 off you would raise an eyebrow but it isn`t. I presume the upgrade coming this year for the ECM is less about higher resolution but more to combat this short range issue. EDIT: Maybe to give it a little slack, the GEFS control does also dip. EDIT2: Regardless, the 2M temps from todays GEFS is possibly more bullish than yesterday.

Current flow, to show tomorrows wintry risk.

Chasing a flake or 2 tomorrow morning in EA. All very borderline, potentially back edge snow due to the wetbulb (2 hours after expected front) and cold air arrival. Any other showers after this will be wintry up to early hours Weds.

Looking at the AO across the pond, agreed, messy stuff (all forecasts) and has to be SSW related.

only recently started to look at where LP`s get some of their fuel from. This weeks are still drawing from the arctic. EDIT: FAX does show this. They must use NCEP/GFS data.

Looking at potential for Tuesday snow, very slim pickings if any. Not much precipitation about but here is the Arpege and Arome`s take. After the 2 day cold spell, looks like nudging double digit daytime temps for a while. (for the South) I don`t normally look past 4 or 5 days but the clustering on the GEFS is very tight.

Tomorrows 2M temps with both the GEFS and the ECM ensembles. Hitting 12 degs looks off the cards. If Mondays temps are diluted tomorrow then maybe Tuesday has some legs. (big ish) EDIT: Jet could favour the East coast if temps calm down. Who gives a DAM

12z ECM has 2M highs for tomorrow less than the predicted 12Degs in England at lunch.

FAX charts have been a little `iffy` recently so take these with a pinch. Chasing an event South of North Wales on Tuesday looks like wasted energy from todays run. Note the 528 DAM Monday Tuesday The front from the North isn`t a cold front, it`s occluded also. The 2nd FAX is ahead of the precipitation but even then the 528 DAM only gets to N Wales/Midlands. The LP`s are pretty nailed on still to come in, it just doesn`t look cold enough for an `event`.

Kind of think the SW flow will be flatter after today. The flow was almost predicted as a ridge over the UK but the Iberian HP looks a little suppressed. 6z`s may confirm. Edit: If this real time data from NCEP is correct, look at the flow off the Iberian HP.

No snow/sleet/graupel/rain - have to wait for the next showers. Cambs Uni data.

You can see where Tuesdays headache comes from.

this front is early, was supposed to be around 10ish (there is the model lag). you do have heavier precip coming so see if you pick up again. This hasn`t been modelled by the op`s very well, went against the jet stream. Anyway I have something imminent here, will report. DP is -2.4. I do use the NW radar btw!

Looking at current radar, this front isn`t swinging up from the SW, it is almost taking a NE/SE (like the jet) track with precipitation. Soon will be catching here. Kind of pleased about that.

Still having a look at tonight. Posted the 0C iso an hour earlier than the front to show the possibility of frontal snow. Pinch it might be snow until it clears. Arome/Arpege precipitation charts.

I hear you. Dec I had 10cm of snow here from a bugger all LP that pivoted. Yeah had snow this morning, even though heavy it didn`t settle due to rain at 6AM. Don`t want to touch the global warming issue but at some point, we will have an extreme winter. We broke heat records so keep spinning the wheel. This season has been a huge learning curve, that`s worth more than snow.

ECM looks great for Tuesday with the 500hPa. Don`t be fooled. Not a lot has changed from a LP conveyor belt of LP`s which are going to be wet.

Yep, mixing out colder air isn`t as straight forward as it sounds. There are no 0C isotherm snowploughs.