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Stuie

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Everything posted by Stuie

  1. Stuie
    Very impressive, looks a solid dive into Dec. NAO same.
  2. Stuie
    Plenty of water under the bridge before that point.
  3. Stuie
    OK.. here we are for Tuesday. ECM/GEFS/GEM/UKMO UKMO alone it seems.
  4. Stuie
    CFS does seem to be fairly North with next weeks LP. Let`s monitor.
  5. Stuie
    Looking at fine details regarding next week. Posted last night about a possible shift North of LP(s). GEFS from yesterday and today.
  6. Stuie
    Yep, the trend is there mate, never like going that far ahead but it is a trend. Chasing warm instead of cold certainly is different.
  7. Stuie
    It does look like trending NE which this far out is a good sign. Will look more into things tomorrow, as you said though, happy spring is on hold (ish) Edit: quick look at the JS would indicate a Scottish issue but think will be heavily altered N closer to the time.
  8. Stuie
    Deary me, the GFS loves it`s LP`s. That 2nd chart is insane.
  9. Stuie
    Some may say I have been bashing the ECM but this model is broken, has been for months. Await the 12z but the 0z again shows a big outlier.
  10. Stuie
    Not sure if someone has posted this or not but if you want `nothing weather`, the GEFS gives it a bash. Not hot, not cold, not wet... haven`t looked at wind but at least a bit of a drying out period in the South (London).
  11. Stuie
    Very nice ECM T168 chart, dry HP. Let`s get some temp rises.
  12. Stuie
    Haven`t looked at the ECM ENS for a few days but not shocked to see this 0z outlier. We await the model upgrade.
  13. Stuie
    Looking at Sunday... very damp it appears and not pleasant on the South coast. The Arpege IMO is normally quite reserved with precipitation (accurate more like) but it is going with this forecast.
  14. Stuie
    Pretty good agreement between the ECM and GEFS ensembles. Cold blip then an upturn in temps heading into April. Nothing to say spring has sprung, damp just about double figures 2M temps but is edging... (ECM still trying to throw an outlier)
  15. Stuie
    Find this slightly interesting. We have 2 LP`s to the West, cold air being dragged from the pole and also milder air being drawn from the Azores due to HP.
  16. Stuie
    Looks like a bit of a back edge squall line across EA tomorrow morning as the front passes through. EDIT: Alaro hinting also (hour later)
  17. Stuie
    Looking at the AO across the pond, you can see why the GFS OP has really been in question also. SSW or not, agreement has been poor. If someone could post model verification stats from all models this year that would be great.
  18. Stuie
    Looking at ENS from the GEFS/ECM and ICON, the rest of the month is neither BBQ weather or SLEDGE. Wellies will be required though. How the ECM has managed at least 5 days without and outlier (yes nearly further on) is a deffo reset internally. It`s tighter than a Scotsman`s wallet (Yip I am Scottish). EDIT: Why the GFS continues with a snow row is beyond...
  19. Stuie
    This has to be the worst combo this week, wet and windy (gusty). ugh.
  20. Stuie
    Have been saying `bad words` a lot with the ECM op runs regarding outliers but the GFS op has deffo said hold my pint.
  21. Stuie
    When in 1960 did we have 40 degs? Not getting into this but enjoy life.
  22. Stuie
    That sounds great for summer. I do wonder how hot `76 would have been in this current climate. If we do end up with HP over us, wouldn`t be surprised for us to be around the 40c mark again. Times have changed.
  23. Stuie
    Awaiting the ECM 12z ensembles but can we have a huge round of applause for it`s tightest run in ages, the 0z. See rebooting does work. EDIT: 12z back to the wobbles with a near outlier.
  24. Stuie
    Yep as much as the scatter may raise eyebrows, the 2M temps for London put things in perspective.
  25. Stuie
    Totally bizarre, yet another ECM outlier but this time follows the GEFS. This isn`t long range stuff. The 19th (in 4 days) is wobbly.
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