[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter]

evening Gang ,i,v had my fingers crossed all day hoping that tonight would produce a good last 4 frames on ECM ,this was one of the possible Synoptic situations that was possible a couple of days ago ,yet of course even this could change IF by then pressure is lower over the azores and the opposite if pressure is higher of course .And we can throw in uncertain developments over russia ,and any polar hight rise ,not forgetting what is going on in the Stratosphere as i speak ,WE should i would think see some significant changes on our 4 times per day friend GFS ,so gang things getting interesting ,a Few slugs to clear out the way [those annoying areas of high pressure the type we dont need ]So at this point in the proceedings we are looking at more of a mobile further outlook and more Akin to early winter ,But of course we want jam on it ,but i feel its a case of Patience ,and Stellas   

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

Well i,v actually watched the GFS unfold today not usually what i do , certainly looks like our vortex Could be migrating east but as we all know a very unpredictable traveller who likes to park itself in comfortable well known locations where it feels at home ,so a possibility that it Could give us a taste of winter if as modeled today .But cant help but notice high pressure to our s west is also well modeled ,All a real pickle past 7/8 days so lets hope tonights ecm and others can shed some light ,but we are sat i think in a good position for possibilitys, enough changing spread in models also, so fasten your seat belts i think a change is very likely after next weekend but details still to be sorted atleast interesting times gang .

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

Good afternoon on the last day of Autumn , fellow posters .generally all output today points to a fairly quiet spell of weather ,Ok it will be turning Cooler as we go through this week with some frosts Fog perhaps some wintryness over fairly high elevations and a promise of some sunny early winter sunshine .but as we approach the later stages of next weekend and early the following week Alot of uncertainty in my opinion .some Data pointing towards an attack from the north /west others saying pressure will be high from azores to europe .But remember last December ,Mother nature was cooking up some pretty spectacular weather .looking at current Vortex modelling and it seems to have very itchy feet but will probably find a place to Roost but Destination currently [unknown ] .as many experienced posters have pointed out keep an eye on model runs over several days as apposed to just One run ,REmember all data whether surface maps upper air maps including Jet stream vortex etc will change constantly ,this model forum i find a very interesting learning area .For new members and those who want to learn more about Meteorology especially those who want to understand upper air patterns and what is actually taking place a couple of miles above our heads could fin d the study of Aircraft contrails a good Tool for visually studying the upper air along with of course natural clouds .If you type in Science of contrails on  Google ,there are many interesting sites .I,v mentioned this on Model output discussion as i know some posters are new and learning .well 13 weeks of winter about to start ,182 ecm runs 364 GFS runs ,not forgetting the others of course ,Cheers gang   

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

Support for a cold northerly arctic incursion is growing, nice to read the latest MO is for the first time using the words wintry showers and not just for hills. It does seem to me that a more amplified pattern is in development with mid Atlantic high pressure occasionally bridging east but sometimes pulling back west to allow colder pm / arctic shots..I think frost and wintry ppn will not be in short supply during the first month of winter, I don't think collides will get short changed like we did during the abysmal winter of 2013-14...

looking at all current charts and Data i too would think that any real cold or anything wintry would arrive from the N or N west in about a week or so .but positioning of high pressure will be crucial ,Tonights runs would have to firm up in this direction and GFS at 168 Hrs would need to flip and stay on course ,All this possible IF something of course is lurking out there .we need UK MET office at 148 hrs in near harmony with ECM Same chart .but gang things are a stiring looks like a week of interesting possibilitys ,Straws  and STellas at the ready .

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

Still in my opinion plenty to be cheerfull about past 6/7 days .it would have been good to see todays GFS runs go more for high pressure to our n/west but there is plenty of big change from run to run .Ecm is looking good at 6/7 days ,but the big picture at about a week away seems to be Where will any high sit ,which of course is crucial to weather at the surface over good old uk .IM pretty sure that if a northerly with cold 850 s and pressure low to our north east is on its way in about 8/10 days we should start to see plenty of signs over coming 48 hrs .we must look for consistancy and agree ment at the 7 day range ,beyond that the Horizon is as clear as MUD i feel but still interesting enough for a bit of Model Discussion ,Interesting times ahead and it starts proper Monday for 13 weeks ,Did you all get your Black friday STELLAS IN ,  

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

Plenty of interest today in the models especially towards the further outlook .great to see the ECM Showing some colder options but we need them showing tomorrow [please ECM ] Well will the GFS Twins give us some cold charts tonight ,all in all plenty to cheer about ,but we must not base any thoughts of proper cold on a couple of runs ,if its out there i think it will be a slow process ,

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

IFF the Models have nailed it right up till mid december and possibly beyond that means tomorrow morning we will see no change on our current 240 hr charts .So sorry folks NO modell watching  no discussions Time for the Met office down at exeter to go part time ,and of course the new SUPERCOMPUTER WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED .Plenty of uncertainty in the long range charts at the moment so plenty to keep us in the Hunt for cold .We have a brilliant team of posters on NET Weather and although the majority of us including myself are Amateurs we are professional compared to some Media outlets [headline scaremongers ]and some internet sights ,long live NET weather, The Met office ,and long live the uncertainty of our Weather ,if this gets moved to Ramps ,i will understand ,  

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

Good afternoon all, having had a good look at all of our current charts and Data it does look to me that high pressure in unfavourable positions [for cold ]will be lurking around our shores .the only Straw being towards the end of the GFS runs Low pressure could move from west to east bringing in colder north atlantic sourced Air .but all this yet again well towards the 10 day range ,This does seem cruel to us cold weather watchers but we must be realistic and hope that mother nature can spring those surprises which she does so often do .The Hunt is on fellow posters lets enjoy the Chase ,

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

I can only Mirror what many posters are saying ,We are in a good position and different to last year .And i would like to add that high pressure somewhere to our north [or a north in the positioning whether its N/E NORTH or N/west and low pressure somewhere to our south in my thinking, Money in the pot .but probably dozens of different Synoptic possibilitys could be the outcome .looking at tonights Data gradually sees some lowering 850 mb temp which again warms the cockles of my heart and a pressure change is always exciting ,but caution as we are all aware ,steady as she goes and lets see what tomorrow brings .Tonights late FAX charts could give us a clue ,Nice to see the Frost today ,instead of Mild Mush ,  

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

Morning ,one can look at todays output and see the sort of set up that many of us dream of ,but patience is the key untill we get to a more reliable synoptic possibility .we could finish up with high pressure sat over us in about a weeks time or in a favourable position for cold over NW europe or it could be a southern europe High trying to sneak in [with shares in Prozack ]But a very interesting and tantalising Model watching period coming up .Today all the roofs were a  glistening with frost ,bring it on ,out with the dog then a sausage Bap ,

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

Good afternoon posters ,rather quiet at present but plenty of other things going on apart from Model watching .Any one feeling down at present charts and Data Well [dont] .Winter one week away with plenty of time for us all to get our fixes .so far today we have  a good looking GEM in its later outlook ,could be subject to change but Could be on to something .GFS all over the place in its later stages and ECM very topsy turvy from day to day .I cant wait till we get low pressure skooting to the south of us Perhaps later this week .the norther hemisphere is cooling very nicely in higher LAT  ,And on the Vortex situation it seems to be wandering like a bear with a sore head .I feel the big players at the moment are High pressure over northern europe russia so we need to keep an eye in that direction and some higher pressure possibly setting up shop nearer to our side of the pole in about a week or two .So not totally Mushy mild and indeed tonight quite possibly a WINTER WONDERLAND if you can do with frost .well i,m looking forward to tonights model runs especially 168 HRS ECM to see if we do possibly see a lowering of pressure to our south .And STellas are on ice if GEM comes up trumps ,cheers   

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

Todays output is like waking up on Xmas morning expecting to get your new Playstation and realizing you've hit a time warp and now have to make do with the Binatone tennis game!

 

This probably won't mean a thing to younger members!

 

Overall the ECM once again has led yet another fantasy tour and its now dropped last nights more positive output for coldies and replaced it with yesterday mornings horror show, the upstream pattern flattens out and the PV moves into Greenland.

 

I don't think the French have a term for crud but lets just call it crudé  !!!

 

The ECM ensembles have lost that strong easterly cluster with jut a smaller amount hanging onto the precipice!

 

So yesterday mornings ECM was Alien 1, this mornings Alien 2, I really don't want to see a third instalment this evening.

 

As for the other NWP pretty much in the same boat bar the GEM , the problem really is just too much energy spilling eastwards and the flat pattern over the USA and Canada means theres nothing to help pull some of those low heights away.

 

This is Ripley last survivor of the Nostramo signing off......... still waiting to be rescued from this mild void!

The above post reflects my feelings on current output .A few tasty charts though at the end of P GFS today .but we all must remember that this time last year a very big long lasting weather event wasn,t that far around the meteorological corner ,Just a case of waiting Gang ,this Mild damp gloomy overlasting spell is  giving my Brussels the MOLD .I,v nearly cracked it with posting charts ,thanks to those posters for Help ,so far  everything i,v tried as gone into cyber space .Lets hope tonights chart runs give us some needed cold .

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

Plenty of time for winter to mature .13 weeks of winter to come ,most of the type of winters we crave for usually arrive later after the new year .But i must admit its depressing watching others getting the snow but has we know after a run of many mild winters SNOW Arrived to lift our spirits .Northern hemisphere pressure patterns look very interesting at the moment and we are only at the end, nearly of Autumn .  i,v ordered STellas all round ,RElax its only the 21st of November ,i,m off now to put up a new 500w Halogen lamp ,then we are off down Tesco for their bags of salt ,snow brush and shovel ,and a good stock up on Cans of food ,of course the Halogen light is for some flake watching ,the beauty of weather  watching is its not an exact science so tomorrow New Data could pop up to give us hope ,Ramp moan over ,Sausage Bap with brown sauce here i come ,cheers all 

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

 

Mods - whilst its quiet.......

Legritter

I too suffered fom an inabiliity to post charts.

I have finally fixed it after a day of sitting down to crack it.

Good news is, its very easy when you know how.

Firstly open up a window with 'reply to this post' or start new post.

You already do this to post at the moment.

I open up another window (tab) for the model I am interested in (I keep a list of them all in my favouritess), and then right click and select 'copy' for the file. I then just move the cursor over to my reply and at the correct place just hit the right tab button again. Just select 'paste' and lo and behold there it is.

Simple's you see. I still havn't learned how to connect up multiple charts, which I think is very clever, via the 'next' and 'previous' buttons. Anyone help me here?

MIA

Thank you for this information ,much appreciated Midlands ice age .

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

No comment really needed, the US goes into the freezer again and we end up with an area of high pressure which covers most of Eurasia.

certainly not normal for November. Nice undercut from the ECM, shame the flow it's dragging in has 850s of +8C 

Must add, you might get an easterly from there but it's too far away and too mad to be honest.

But a nice looking chart ,And at 10 days away this Could lead to something hopefully .things im sure will Mature as we go towards the new month .meteorologically charts and data today look juicy but we need some more Meat on the bones ,I will [promise ]post some of my own charts when i sus it out ,till then i,ll carry on enjoying our brilliant forum ,

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

Well i,m certainly Sat on the fence ,Emotional Rollercoaster  Post [685] has just said what i was going to say .looking at the Models today one cant escape the fact that beyond about 7 days we could be looking at quite big differences of where we source our surface winds from .I am not hinting at something Bitter or something wet and windy but for us Model watchers theres plenty in todays charts and Data to keep us on our toes .And its certainly all Systems go looking at the Northern Hemisphere at the moment ,But taking all available Data it looks to me that the Atlantic is gearing up for an attack on western europe but as ever the Meteorological battles are prone to big changes on the Battlefield ,In all the posts i,v ever done on this forum i have never posted any charts etc ,but fingers out, i will be trying my hand soon ,Great forum ,  catch up later .

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

I would also like to echo other posters thoughts on any possible pattern change ,looking at all current charts Mild with typical late autumn weather for now .Then a possible battle between high pressure over central and some parts of northern europe probably taking place in about 5/6 days .over the last weeks there has been some very interesting charts on offer and also a lot of variation from day to day ,I would not be surprised to see some Tasty charts appearing tonight and over the coming few days ,I have always said we have a Great forum here on Net weather and its great when we get input from professionals and experienced posters .  STellas all round 

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

looking at current charts and also having a good look around northern hemisphere Data the next 6/7 days to me seems typical late Autumn ,but beyond that some interesting possibilitys .high pressure to our far east could influence our Island and also the possibility of high pressure to our north .Of  course tonights ECM run could also flip back to last nights final chart ,but hands up i was full of joy last night with ECM ,thought for a second the starting gun had fired .But i do like todays 144 Hrs ECM if we can get to that i will be pleased .Many twists and turns to come but nice to be able to discuss the Models on this brilliant forum .

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

Sit back gang ,relax lets have a few more runs or should i say several runs .Very interesting charts on offer ,I will now await our hvy squad and some other ECM data for possible back up ,im looking forward to tonights posts and of course the possibillity we could be seeing a pattern change ,but very early days, Caution but lets enjoy .

[Early winter hopes and chat]

I have just spent a couple of hours relaxing in the warm sun outside our summer house ,having taken a break from sorting out elderly relatives .dusted off some old weather diarys and had a read of winters past going back a couple of centurys ,The combinations of different weather synoptics very interesting but alas NO pattern or indications of what could happen in our further outlook .This i find a good thing ,it would be boring and too Clinical if we could predict too far ahead .As for early winter hopes ,It would be nice for a cold snowy winter but with plenty of different synoptics playing out .Nice to look at Updated Fax charts as apposed to long range charts ,i find the fax charts very interesting [A Meteorologists paint brush if you like ] And also getting off my Butt and actually looking skywards ,to see things like Halos ,that approaching weather front ,AND to finish the chase That first snowflake that makes the heart flutter when seen against the Halogen light as your peeping out the side of the window .When i said move my But i mean get off the computer AND enjoy mother nature more .so lets hope for some polar lows ,also some low pressure systems to our south [depending of course on each net weather posters location ]plenty of Lake effect snow ,and with Sea surface temp high that could be good .Thirteen weeks of winter ahead ,lets hope its an interesting period ,Brilliant forums and a good learning area for all ,cheers .  

[Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond]

Its great being a part of the Net Weather forum ,being able to view many different charts and Data and also the input of knowlegable members .Looking back about thirty or so years ago it was a case of having synoptic charts posted to me 3 or 4 times a week from the local Weather centre at a small cost delivered in a standard brown envelope ,when they arrived in the winter they were the first thing i did when getting home even before tea .the other tools were shipping forecast and late night further outlook on radio 4 about midnight 30 ish .what a great array of information we have .forecasts Have improved ,but still the weather his still full of twists and turns .Current charts still point towards mild unsettled and rather seasonal weather for next week or so But December could be totally different ,but what ever the outcome i will personally enjoy this top of the charts Forum ,i will probably drop a few toys out of the Pram [ but i am getting better ]So bring it on   STellas all round ,

[Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond]

Yes currently looking at all current charts and Data it does look like a couple of weeks of Atlantic dominated weather .but things can change on that horizon of ours which seems to be around six days plus .Some very interesting weather going on in the northern hemisphere at present which gives me personally great encouragement on the coming winter ,.Its going to be a case of sitting back and learning as much as we can from eachother over coming months .This forum of ours i,m sure his the best ,Certainly beats just looking at charts out to t120 hrs which some of us only had 30 years ago , and boy did they change by fairly big margins everyday .And here we are Free charts great forum ,we are all on a winner ,Bring the winter on .  

[Wales, the Midlands & South West England Weather Discussion]

Afternoon all ,i would also like to add that late last night i emptied my improvised rain bucket and at 8 am this morning hardly anything was in it ,yet looking at radar late last night i expected far more .i am on west mendip but slightly in the lee of some 600/700  hills to my south .this happened alot last year ,but as Ian pointed out rain currently coming out of n/west france does look more potent ,which will add to the last 24hrs and late thursday/friday totals will be right up .certainly dont want to see a repeat of last year ,having your HOME flooded is hearbreaking ,some nice frosts and some of the white stuff etc more tolerable i think for most .Just been out with the dog and atleast three tractors with trucks passed me with tons of Thatchers Cider apples ,the SMELL was tempting ,cheers  :drinks:Thanks Ian Furgusson for you input .

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

Stellas all round     No guarantee this winter will be a repeat of last year ,   come on gang the trees round here are still in leaf plenty of time for snow and frost ,and it can change, History tells us that .but i get the drift .last winter was compared to several winters from the 1700 s ,take a look at how many severe cold and snowy ones there were that century .I can hear some posters possibly thinking ,[we did not have Man made climate change then ]well whether we have or not, many parts of the globe still have record cold spells ,but take a look at our location and occasionally we hit the jackpot ,and we havent had a real beast for quite a while ,cheers gang off for a Bacon BAP .

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

Attention all Rampers moaners ,Winter still to come ,13 weeks of possibilities 182 ish runs of ECM  364 of GFS and others ,sit back crack open a Stella    Mother nature is a cooking up in our upper atmosphere ,im pretty sure thats where it all counts ,Dont worry if you start throwing your toys out of the pram ,mummy will tidy them up and look after you .Go carefull when pulling the curtains back to have a look at the street lamp ,My mum used to shout out GET back in bed ,and with 3 brothers all tugging at the curtains it was a full time job .lets hope we all get what we want but remain in controll and be patient ,       SNOWWWW .