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legritter

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Posts posted by legritter


  1. 22 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

    Morning. 🙂 

    So the GFS sticking with a drier interlude for the first half of next week but there is a fly in the ointment and its an area of rain that may skim Eastern England for much of Monday and be very slow to push back out into the north sea with a strong chilly northeast wind.. This is courtesy of a low pressure system set to move north out of central Europe into the north sea on Monday but whether it stays far enough east to give Eastern England a dry day or is west enough to push rain into particularly east anglia and the far south east is currently a little uncertain given the high resolution models keep it away then its more likely to stay east of eastern England for the most part but nevertheless should keep an eye on it but..elsewhere Monday is looking mostly dry with just a stray shower. 🌦️

    Monday night/Tuesday.. 

    13fc25bc-7a93-422a-99de-70058159d269.thumb.gif.7c63c8f424e903674bae3d805eb04de1.gifd12fb9ab-100d-42f4-8085-c1e3bddfae22.thumb.gif.3fe8c98323eb4b00f6c97311266c8531.gif

    Just thought I'd add that tree animation.. 😅

    51b7a937-dd2a-4cca-bdc8-ab0a804cc0e1.thumb.gif.3f4a30e9e7766ac11e2f18365228ff2e.gif

    It starts mostly dry for Tuesday until a weak frontal system tries to push in from the west later but looking like falling to pieces as it makes inroads into more of the UK this because of a very strong blocking high developing out east. 

    Wednesday could be mostly dry so gives the rivers more time to recede to an extent but by Thursday the gfs shows more energised weather fronts making much more progress into much of the UK bringing heavy outbreaks of rain in places clearing to then be followed by more areas of rain from the southwest through the second half of next week but breaks in between a little hill snow for Scotland too. 

    Thursday and Thursday night.. 👇

    eaf0a937-e47d-4b52-a4dc-653522247963.thumb.gif.a993a6eaa278e373055bdd6f9304c0f2.gife780aaf1-6dbf-4b9f-a455-8a158646ea26.thumb.gif.1f5679cf239fadb8ea3adf99d598c2b1.gif

    But then whats this? Yes a more traditional set up beginning to take place with heavy rain pushing into Ireland/northern Ireland and western Scotland by day 9 with higher pressure to the south and east.

    Monday 25th.. 👇

    f9246242-7ce1-4cf7-bd60-5c98e0a4b9d9.thumb.gif.58517687d6afd6fe00b5eab8b004d76a.gif

    Its worth bearing in mind that a small shift east with the overall pattern next week particularly later next week and beyond ie blocking high further away to the east.. *could* cause us to have frequent slow moving weather fronts giving large amounts of rainfall once again to many parts of particularly England and Wales but alternatively less wet if the high pressure is stronger out east and that would mean wetter for the far northwest. 

    Gem for example was a pretty dry run last night but a complete flip to the deluge once again this morning because of that subtle shift east of everything.. and with the Gem this morning a more powerful jetstream with the majority of the rainfall shown on the chart below because of a deep low pushing northeast over central and southern Britain.

    Sunday 24th..👇

    355288473_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_192(1).thumb.jpg.b2f81f136f1b8b019c5515b4e722f82a.jpg

    That's almost certainly going to change but worth a mention. 👍

    Yesterday afternoon's accumulated rainfall forecast.. 

    1792567981_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAINACCUM_240(5).thumb.jpg.c4b902a3338df29cdb1f5648e9b8739e.jpg

    Compared with this morning's Gem 10 day accumulated rainfall. 

    688468416_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAINACCUM_240(6).thumb.jpg.0d717d56f69a74ce8a0ef68855c3fed2.jpg

    Update you all later. 🙂

    Fantastic post ,Thanks .


  2. Hi gang ,just got back from isle of Man lovely island, flood damage in some locations .Uk rivers falling at present but charts are showing some very wet synoptics over the coming 7 to 10 days and very interesting that the Uk is the place to be if you like  low pressure .last night was amazing crystal clear skys ,jack frost ,scraping of cars and central heating systems sending plumes of steam to make ghostly shapes .great forum and i will be about more, now i have more leisure time. STEllas all round ,and nuts for the squirrels, get stocked up on prozack  cheers gang .

     

     

     

     


  3. Just started raini g here on west mendip .looking at all the charts ,tv weather and internet sites it certainly looks like a very wet 24 hrs and more to follow . Its great reading all the posts ,but i do tend to Lurk in the background. Hoping to be able to post more again ,i have had a very busy two years , but the house is all sorted and i now have a bit more free time again .i am looking forward to whatever Mother nature  throws our  way , cheers to all and STellas all round .


  4. 1 hour ago, knocker said:

    It will be quite interesting to see how the EPS goes in the longer term this morning as last evening it tracked the positively tilted Atlantic trough east to be more neutrally aligned over the UK as the ridge was shunted east,

    In the meantime I'm down to see young Sidney

    sid.thumb.jpg.da79dd4e3638060d1f749ec99c902c9a.jpg

    Hope we will be seeing more of young sidney .three months from now hey it could be the beast from the east ,with no food in the cupboards ,and queuing for all sorts of things , but back on topic our warm weather as predicted by todays charts will be most welcome ,cheers get the STellas out .


  5. I have seen in previous similar set ups everything kicks off with a sudden increase in tiny cells  ,but im pretty sure its all running about Two hours late .so here on west mendip i am not expecting any light show till at least 11 pm .sure there will be some Corkers about , the question is where . Best of luck to all  ,me kebabs have 2 flying ants stuck to the maple syrup , extra protein. Cheers .


  6.  Hi Gang ,temp 29.7 here on west mendip .i am trying to avoid my conservatory at present as i have no fly nets ,the door is closed and the temperature hit 48.4 c at 13 05 , flying Ants are  being attacked by  bird's and spiders outside .Looks like showers are developing over  north west  france  , could be some corkers later today, lets hope they kick off just after dark .hope many of you catch a good storm later  cheers .

     


  7. 52 minutes ago, Karl83 said:

    Think I'm just going to sit tight in Bristol and see how the night pans out. Will definitely chase if required.

    I had a flat on Dundry hill many years ago   ,about 700 ft amsl ,great views for storms .think we need to wait till tomorrow for details  ,but some corkers very likely for many. I cant see any warnings out yet,  but expecting some later today ,cheers all   .


  8. The sun is shining here in west mendip ,although hazy .looking out towards the south there are some impressive clouds forming  , i think there will be some good storm activity later ,we are now approaching the longest day so thats on our side ,lets hope for some chimney shakers  ,where if you have soot ,it comes falling down chimney . Best of luck to all posters ,cheers legritter .

     

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