legritter

February 17, 2015

Good afternoon all ,very quiet on here and i can understand why there are only a few posters around ,very nice winters day and plenty of other interests to keep us busy .looking at todays charts things could get interesting come later this week and the possibility of some colder weather turning up next week as low pressure systems move across the UK or come very close .Not every ones cup of tea but if the Dice falls right some Happy posters .Its been a long frustrating winter for most this year if you are craving for lowland snow but we have to accept that Pressure patterns have not been in our favour ,its a hard one to swallow but eventually things will change in our favour When well thats what makes the chase interesting ,heres hoping we can squeeze some snowy synoptics out the next month then all enjoy a good summer and fingers crossed the patterns are in our favour next time .Brilliant forum and a great place to increase our knowledge ,

February 16, 2015

Well lets hope we can at least get some good low 850mb temperatures pulled down from the north atlantic later this week and the following weeks .no sign of any major cold though from any high level block unless models pick up over coming days .would be nice to finish the winter with general cold and some wintry fun ,i,m not giving up yet on 16th February theres been plenty of late winter and spring snowfalls over past History , I await tonights runs with interest ,

February 15, 2015

Good afternoon all ,well i will certainly take what some of the further outlook is showing today .Ok its possibily going to be an interesting Cold Zonal affair but if we can get the Dice to fall right we could make up some lost ground late February early March .wouldn,t be surprised to see some active low pressure systems turn up which would also give us some action weather . Its been a long frustrating winter so far for us coldies and for me personally and from an IMBY thinking a nice covering lasting a couple of days would do me fine .Well lets see what tonights model runs show and lets hope we can see a few more posters say hello by logging in ,some interesting posts ,although thin on the ground ,The Hunt continues

February 14, 2015

Do not worry, as soon as anything realistic, in their view appears, they will be back, trust me after 11 years on here.

Still plenty of time for some interesting synoptics as its only Valentines day ,but i will put my hands up and say i havent been posting much but have been lurking .Todays ecm ok in final frame with some cold air 850mb temp encroaching from far north atlantic ,so future runs I will be watching with some interest half expecting some Deep lows coming our way and i think a fair possibility of a deep scandy trough to set up probably our best chance looking at current modelling .Our turn Will come but we may have to wait ,perhaps a nice long warm summer to cheer us all up ,i am in no way saying winter is over so the Hunt is still on ,Great Forum catch you all up later ,

February 12, 2015

I've seen a lot of cr*p looking ecm ensemble means this winter but those I posted above look good, the high is retreating and cold uppers are spreading south east, I'm trying to be positive, some will say I'm very trying but I don't think the models are looking that bad really, certainly not bad enough to take a full day to fill one page! Anyhoo, I've done my bit today to keep this forum alive..lol

Here here Frosty ,and we still have time for fun and games yet ,come on all its only 12th february and whats shown today could and probably will be different in 10/15 days time .Gfs still toying with different solutions ,an absolutely gorgeouse day today ,but outside now the wind is starting to Howl ,The weather is certainly a quick change artist ,we just need that Azores high to stop sticking its nose in or orientate in our favour ,take care all

February 11, 2015

Quite a few GEFS 00z perturbations including the control run look very similar to the Ecm 0z @ T+240 hours with a cold shot from the north incoming, so perhaps there will be a change to colder weather later in the month with high pressure becoming centred further west and a deep and large complex scandi trough influencing our weather through late February.

Good morning all ,we need to Nuke our Azores high gang ,because any Perturbations showing will be attacked by our big fat friend who thinks he can hide for a while have a Nap then come out to spoil the party .But as Frosty says some possibilitys out there towards the long range ,when looking back to last week it looked like the models were all suggesting high pressure Totally in charge but the weather had other ideas ,so still time to get a good cold spell ,all models could flip we just need i feel the Dice to fall in favour of n/west europe and uk ,lets enjoy the Hunt as its still only 11th february .

February 10, 2015

could be some interesting synoptics in around 10 days time ,looking at GFS its showing many outcomes in the further outlook .we will have to wait for the other models as usual to see where we Could end up .reading uk Met extended outlook at present its not showing anything wintry and will only do so when their models and data are more concrete ,i class their updates as the info we do not see [just as well realy as its the total uncertainty which makes the HUNT interesting ]we have no Fox at the end of our hunt just a nice cold spell with some modest snow , so with the date only 10th february i,m ushering in the hounds let the hunt commence

February 10, 2015

This morning is a case of an acorn growing into a sapling but still meeting an untimely end! which is better than yesterday with no acorn!

The overall NH pattern is still poor for any proper cold into the UK but the weekend and early next week remains the subject of some uncertainty.

The models by and large have made a pigs ear of trough disruption near the UK and the ensembles have been even worse, their lower resolution is having a hard time picking up on that trough disruption.

The GFS in particular is showing a lot of mood swings but its 06hrs output has edged towards the ECM solution, whats interesting is that the outputs develop some cold pooling in southern Norway and the GFS now wants to disrupt energy from the next upstream low.

Sometimes small early changes can incrementally start altering that important more local detail further on, the PV is in no mood to back down but its the angle of attack from the next upstream low that could be effected by these early changes.

I wonder whether we're seeing some response to the MJO, even though this is weak it could be with the timelag that the models are picking up on this, not enough for some major NH change but effecting the weekend and early next week for western Europe.

I don't see a miracle happening, its likely the Azores high will move in again but its the changeover period that could become a bit more messy and a little bit more wintry.

We'll see tonight whether we can squeeze a bit more out of a possible Scandi high but its crucial that the favourable trough disruption allows that to happen in the first place.

yes certainly some interesting Possibilitys on the table at the moment ,i wonder where our azores high will be in the proceedings ,will we see some possible Lows pushing further south out of north America ,combining with a possible hight rise to our n /east but the one to watch is azores i feel ,if as my straw clutch comes off we would see a final good bye to high pressure to the s/west we could get down to some good cold snowy Hunting .Well it looked not that long ago that high pressure would be totally in control so ten days from now could be a new chapter ,i,m certainly keeping the Lamps burning for some wintry fun as today is 10th february ,cheers all

February 8, 2015

I,d like to speak to a manager please , I,m sorry sir he,s at a meeting ,can i help YES you can ,These high pressure cells are completely in the wrong place get a grip Model .Good job its only the weather and still hopefully time for some good charts, Gem later in its output Tantalising ,and the atlantic showing signs of waking up a little ,lets see where we go from here ,cheers

February 7, 2015

well certainly high pressure wants to be hugging our shores for quite a while looking at todays models charts .very frustrating to see big fat high just sticking its nose in ,wouldn,t be so bad if it was sat proud to our north or n/west n/east ,some signs of a possible change with some charts showing a trough dropping south eventually but more runs needed for sure .By no means the end of the road with the rest of february and March left to deliver hopefully a proper cold blast with low 850mb temperatures and some meaningfull areas of low pressure ,My straw at the moment [high pressure to our west and s/west must be feeling rather quilty and would love a good old kick up the ba.. .... and wake up over Lapland , lets hope we see a good week of interesting output

February 4, 2015

They must test the algorithms and adapt them based on historical data to prove the model one would assume. If the model can't predict whats happened in the past then it would be no use in predicting the future.

So I would imagine some back testing using historic data must be carried out as a proof of the algorithms.

Edit: sorry mods I see this is correct from other posters - please feel free to delete.

why delete ,an interesting post ,would be great if we had upper air profiles from past history ,how strong was the P Vortex ,MJO Strat etc ,of course IF we did we would be further down the line with long range forecasting wouldn,t we ?,Well we still have time apart from present for some High level blocking ,Let the hunt continue .

February 3, 2015

The threat of snow over east Anglia, and southeast England Wednesday night into Thursday looks to be diminishing

all the time. Also the threat of another northerly reload was never really there in the first place, just another ECM

poor run to add to the growing list. Certainly not much in the way of wintry weather to look forward to in the mid range

( day 5 to 10) beyond that who knows.

It certainly looks as though the vortex this winter is far more robust than we thought judging by the latest runs and

despite posts throwing everything into the equation for this winter ie GWO,QBO, MJO, Enso, solar and strat and

covering all angles searching for answers the weather does what it wants to do.

Frosty at night and dry but rather cold perhaps by day looks the order of the day as we go through next week.

only just popped in to have a quick look, as busy with elderly relatives ,you say the threat of snow coming in from the east is now diminishing for later wed /thursday is this to a lack of any troughs or an opening out of any pressure ,i will check back later for an update .looks like the cold will keep going for a while yet, by tonights models , cheers all .

February 3, 2015

Dont give up yet ,last nights system never had our name on it but nearly .still time for a trough to bring some snow into somerset from the east .Wed night thursday looking next possible shout .but i would not rule out tonight ,would just be nice to see 5cms and to be up and about to catch it in the act .high pressure looks like being dominant in medium term and possibly longer ,but we could get lucky later but we need a new block on the block if you know what i mean Harry .So chins up and pray ,STellas all round ,and sausage Baps with a bit of brown sauce ,

February 2, 2015

evening ,been busy with elderly inlaws today ,popped on Radar 30 mins ago and bingo .well if this reaches Somerset it should all be snow ,does look like its building a bit as its approaching ,just hope we dont get the dreaded Polo hole appear and then break up ,i,m going to give the radar a miss over next hour or so .lovely winters night out There was a good Halo round moon ,and some lower level cloud coming in from the n/east good signs ,perhaps we could get something to follow ,

February 2, 2015

No guarantee but high pressure looks like setting up shop over our shores later in mid term .but looking out into longer range especially on ECM today the possibility of low pressure moving in to Scandy and a mid atlantic ridge setting up . i think give the models a couple of days and we could be chasing the next seperate cold spell or the continuation of current, its that way at the moment with models trying to pin down the centre of our Anticyclone ,sudden surprise snow outside now very light but wasn,t expecting that ,lets hope for a big upsurge of interest tonight ,cheers gang

February 1, 2015

If there is no retrograde of the high any deep cold for this winter is done.

Two weeks of the high siting there then it sinks back for zonailty for lengthy spell then bobs your uncle march has arrived .

This has to be the form horse now

Still plenty of time left for a good cold snowy spell ,just a week would be fantastic .theres every possibility that high pressure could finish up in a favourable position .but we are now looking at the models with interest as we are in the last third of winter but still March as well .Plenty of different long term situations showing from variouse outputs so hang in there ,cheers gang ,

February 1, 2015

Yes legritter - it's gonna hit somewhere in our vicinity. Good luck to all! Incredible to see the streamer make it this far

seems to be developing nicely ,hope it gives us up watching a covering ,perhaps we can call it border dangler .

February 1, 2015

been watching streamer ,seems to be holding together cant quite work out if its going to run east of bristol or over and into my patch ,we should know come just after six ish .fun for some ,heres hoping .

January 31, 2015

News just arrived ,latest Sat shot shows any precipitation now becoming confined to north sea out at sea as trough runs further south ,some sleet showers may clip eastern coasts later this evening .hvy showers now falling across scotland in association with a trough originating in very cold air will move south at a fairly fast rate ,a new trough could form across northern britain later in the night ,then expected to run south or even s /west as pressure rises to our north .my neighbour only gleened this info as leaving shift ,as normal all m of 4 info probably included in 2 .30 am update from met office later regards any increase in trough developement ,

January 30, 2015

Thanks Ian for that information ,every day seems to set new challenges ,i remember many years ago how sometimes you have days of reflection and quiet then another situation pops up ,thats Meteorology for you ,we do have much lower temp on the way so fingers crossed for something to turn up

January 29, 2015

Proper snow falling here at 15.45 pm light shower but SNOW stoped, now temp down to 2.7 c ,Radar watch later tonight but temp will be crucial fingers crossed .

January 28, 2015

showers now brewing ,temp 2.8C some nice looking shower clouds out over bristol channel hoping for some increase in shower activity ,i can see them with moon shining ,just waiting for more to brew up over channel ,need a good sleep tonight so will look out window at day bbreak fingers crossed ,lets hope the dice falls in our favour

January 28, 2015

just had a very light snow sleet shower temp now 2.6 c could have been more hail but it was very brief ,radar now beefing up out to our west /n west .

January 28, 2015

20% - 30% probability based on 0z output Ian said.

There isn't a channel low, there never was a true channel low. It's a shallow low heading S/SE from Iceland which could potentially clip the SW bringing a spell of snow here followed by a trough disturbance heading in the same direction but further East. It's this trough disturbance that we are interested in and has the potential (that's the key word currently) to bring a spell of more organised snowfall on Mon/Tues. Forget any chatter about a channel low, I don't know where that's come from.

The 2 main features for our region next week are;

1- The shallow low that is modelled to end up going into Biscay, this more for Somerset, Dorset, Devon and Cornwall

2- The following trough disturbance behind it heading into Northern France, this more for Wiltshire, Hampshire, Gloucestershire, Bristol and Somerset.

Ignore detail too, just keep hoping the NWP model disturbances between the time period of say Sunday Evening and Wednesday Morning. As long as they do then hopefully we can increase the Meto's view of a 20/30% probalistic chance of it happening and with no marginality around during that time period then it will snow.

So far so good with the 12z GFS and 12z UKMO as these do model a spell of snow travelling South through the country as my earlier post suggested. That's all we can ask for at this range.

I could use the 12z GEM but that would be bordering on the ridiculous.

just going to post similar thoughts ,very good potential and still time and possibilitys for atlantic low to track nearer our shores on future runs ,also front coming south on tuesday gives very good potential if it comes off ,each day will throw up new features new challenges for us to try and fathom out possibilitys certainly Not boring ,and right now nice cold air with showers moving in over night ,curtain and lamp post and of course radar watching ,stand by your beds gang ,cheers

January 28, 2015

Temp now 4 c ,just had light hail shower ,keeping fingers crossed for later ,certainly a radar situation ,interesting possibilitys for later this weekend

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