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Weather Boy

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    Royston, Herts 76m asl

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  1. Hello fellow Roystonian. I currently have 36.8C. @Kirkcaldy Weather nominated us as the hotspot. I hate to disappoint that there is now no recognised station here, but I will do my best as a substitute. That might turn out to be our max. Generally, I would expect Cambridge to be slightly warmer than us as it is lower.
  2. Sorry, Mike, I'm probably being very dim, but it's just possible I'm not alone in not understanding these charts, but they seem interesting. Would you be kind enough to explain them to the idiots among us? Thanks.
  3. Since noticed. Never too late for bragging though. Except that someone else picked that figure also.
  4. Quite, and that's exactly what is shown on this temperature chart that someone posted earlier. 36°C at Heathrow and, er, 20°C, maybe only 17° on north Essex/ Suffolk coast! Incidentally, meto are saying 34° for southern counties later in week. Baffled as to why BBC persist with 25° maxes. Are they expecting a temperature inversion??!! Still, meto reassuring me I'm not going mad.
  5. Hi Rob I think that there are a couple of flaws here. Firstly, there are at least tentative signs that the part I have bolded may be wrong. Second, happy to be corrected, but it seems to me that on this forum everyone says Greenie high = southward forced jet = washout summer. True, we have seen that before, the classic being 2007. Yet, we have had HP in place in the region (Iceland too) throughout the spring and conditions, certainly in my location have been generally very benign. So I don't think it follows. Thirdly, don't really buy your opening sentence! It's not a lack of articulation, it's a lack of evidence, to my mind! Cheers, WB
  6. For the benefit of newer model watchers. StormChaseUK is making a ridiculous statement. The models are usually pretty sold for maybe a week ahead, and one can look at trends for perhaps two weeks ahead. To suggest that they are worth taking seriously beyond that timeframe is for the birds. Sometimes even within a week there can be doubts, even for the general trend, and contradictions between the models. Some of the more knowledgeable posters on here (see, for example, Tamara's post I think it was yesterday) try to look at long term trends using background signals that are way beyond me. But even they will admit that this is taxing, fraught with difficulty and often wrong. Even these exercises will not normally look much beyond a month, certainly not with any confidence. Seasonal forecasts are extremely difficult and certainly not based upon a few days' of operational model output. So, anyone attempting to make a prediction for an entire season during its opening days based on current model output hasn't a clue (or is, as Danm implied, doing it for their own reasons). They might be right of course, but if they are it will be because the weather happens to tie in with what they said by coincidence, not because they were interpreting the models correctly. I hope this is of benefit to those possibly confused by such comments.
  7. I disagree. I just did a little experiment by tracking the eastern edge with my cursor and my conclusion is that whilst the boundaries are not 100% static, generally it's not budging. Eastern edge is pretty well Oxford, as it was some hours ago. It seems to be merging with the precipitation further east, though, which is moving NW.
  8. Absolutely, Nick. It's not perfect, but I think my answer to his question is correct!
  9. Because they are one of the few location specific ensembles that are freely available (and it's close enough to the UK that it probably doesn't make much odds).
  10. Hopefully a tongue in cheek comment? If not, very unscientific as it literally means that you are allowing your emotions to determine which model output is likely to be correct!
  11. I'm not sure there is ever much point looking at GFS post 144h. Certainly not 240h.
  12. As I understand it, the strength of a block is not indicative as to its stubbornness or otherwise. 1050Mb can be blown away relatively easily, whereas 1028Mb might just not shift.
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