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Weather Boy

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Weather Boy last won the day on April 13 2012

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    Royston, Herts 76m asl

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  1. Absolutely, Nick. It's not perfect, but I think my answer to his question is correct!
  2. Because they are one of the few location specific ensembles that are freely available (and it's close enough to the UK that it probably doesn't make much odds).
  3. Hopefully a tongue in cheek comment? If not, very unscientific as it literally means that you are allowing your emotions to determine which model output is likely to be correct!
  4. I'm not sure there is ever much point looking at GFS post 144h. Certainly not 240h.
  5. As I understand it, the strength of a block is not indicative as to its stubbornness or otherwise. 1050Mb can be blown away relatively easily, whereas 1028Mb might just not shift.
  6. Ditto, although that is applying the de minimus rule, as we have had a few instances of 0.2 mm. That aside, last rain was early hours of 30 May. If it stays dry today and tomorrow, that will double my previous record! Insane.
  7. Weather Boy

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Sorry, Gavin, not following you there. The scale below is inches. Most of the country has in the region of 0.2 inches which is 5mm. Am I getting something wrong, or are you?
  8. I'm guessing that's because the snow blows far more readily than rain, so can hit the ground at a different location from where it starts falling from. Maybe,
  9. Is it snowing with you? I am in the City up a big tower and I probably see your location. Currently sun peeping out here, after white out conditions earlier. Looks to me like you don't have the same at present.
  10. My feeling is this is right. Why? Well, blizzards in a snowy breakdown were forecast in 1987 (I think it might have been). Forecast to be midlands or even further north but didn’t get further than Devon. Obviously forecasts are much better now but that was an error in forecasting that night, we are now discussing something 6 days away. Same situation I feel just more days away. Second BBC not really discussing milder weather in forecast for next weekends weather. Not even mentioned as a possibility right now. Third, SSW played havoc with models, looks like second one is doing the same. My current bet is that frontal system gets barely up beyond the channel. Downside for snow lovers if I’m right is no snow from it. In which case just have to be content with 10-20 cm predicted from showers for those of us in the east at least!
  11. Weather Boy

    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    January 1987 probably best comparable and I think NW did OK then, did it not? Not sure about February 1991 also.
  12. Weather Boy

    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    Maybe not (from your POV), but with HP to the north and LP to the south, and therefore winds from the east bring in any disturbances from that direction, it's hardly surprising.
  13. Weather Boy

    Model output discussion - mid-winter

    Can someone explain to me why everyone thinks that the track will be more southerly than currently progged?
  14. Similarly, we are still under snow and ice. I understand go 20 miles odd West and there is nothing. I'd like to know why. Snow fell at both locations but only settled here. Tiny surface temperature variations.
  15. Thank you very much but: A) how, meteorologically is that different from a full High and B) how do you spot it from the charts? Again, offers gratefully received!