Gary L

Geordiesnow It's clearly very complicated but I am very interested in the material impact of a warming environment. Would be great to see modelling studies to confirm whether or not it makes a difference, but you'd think it absolutely would have an impact.

Funnily enough the temperature here is 1.5c... Before AGW would we be enjoying a 0c snow fest at 200m?!

Wet snow here at 200m. Looks like the snow line is above 350m! Not a great day for snow.

The Northern Ramper Oh dear! Definitely looking a bit tricky away from the main road I'd have thought!

dodge I’m in Diggle so I’ll let you know how it goes further East in Oldham!

Power went out here for a few minutes. It’s pretty windy at the moment as I can hear the roar outside.

Would be a great end, just as it seems the model output might be sniffing a new chase!

This is the thing I have doubts about - If it were so simple we'd have the forecast broadly nailed down weeks in advance, which simply isn't the case. My comments come from a place where there absolutely is a lack of understanding - but I've not seen much to convince me that these indicators produce much certainty in any forecast weeks in advance. It seems to me they tip the balance, but are not definitive?

I'm not an expert in background signals but it seems there's far too much emphasis placed on them. I'm assuming they tip the balances by a few % in the direction of some scenarios (e.g. HLB).

-8c just reached. Going to bed soon, I wonder if we have a shot at -10c

Yeh, had a nice walk this evening in the frozen snow. Amazing what a couple of cm can do if it sticks around

-6.2c in Diggle. We do tend to get frost hollow behaviour in the valley

2.1c -0.3DP Light snow with some moderate bursts. 200m in Saddleworth.

It would be great to see a modelling study to understand how significant the increase in temperatures would be. Low lying area maybe always would have been marginal, but I'm at 200m and it's likely to rain today at some point!

It's quite sad that this likely wouldn't be so marginal pre global warming. Reduced sea ice, Arctic amplification, increased SSTs all seem likely to put 1-2c on this event?