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feb1991blizzard

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Everything posted by feb1991blizzard

  1. feb1991blizzard
    Would agree but early thoughts from me is it could still pack a punch when it does, a lot of cold air could be bottled up & ready to go.
  2. feb1991blizzard
    Cheshire Freeze Question is can we get something potent enough to deliver? like this. check out some of the March / April charts from the 50s, most of them better than the Jan / Feb combos from the 1ties and 20's of this century.
  3. feb1991blizzard
    plus look at this for a reversal. big reversal filtering down
  4. feb1991blizzard
    GFS 12z FI is a stonker, a penetrating N'ly wind and snow showers East coast with a widespread severe frost well inland.
  5. feb1991blizzard
    Frigid Yes, looks like a real polar vortex breakdown coming now - too late!
  6. feb1991blizzard
    Frigid More importantly than big though it must be sustained, you don't want the vortex lower down in the Atmosphere and high up trying to relocate to opposite sides of the pole at the same time, that's asking for trouble and nearly always ends in disaster, spli would be better but no sign of that. EPS not bad in FI.
  7. feb1991blizzard
    Big reversal possible in March.
  8. feb1991blizzard
    Cheshire Freeze You have - slight concern is it might be perfect synoptics firing blanks, unless GFS 6z 384 verifies, would be a treat.
  9. feb1991blizzard
    Dennis Love the optimism Dennis - love your posts, however, no evaporative cooling with those windspeeds, trough running into a past week of high temps.
  10. feb1991blizzard
    A cracking storm on the 6z
  11. feb1991blizzard
    Dennis Not bad.
  12. feb1991blizzard
    bluearmy I would prefer a more conventional spilt, pacific to Atlantic - eg - Jan 09 & Feb 18
  13. feb1991blizzard
    Met4Cast I can see a big neg nao happening final third March - totally strat related. got a feeling it will be a warm Easterly though.
  14. feb1991blizzard
    looks a very weak unfavourable .MJO signal
  15. feb1991blizzard
    Dennis The 850 windflow chart don't look special to me, don't you need a thicker band of continual Westerlies nearer to 180 degrees?
  16. feb1991blizzard
    bluearmy yes, i am thinking this (mid march) will deliver the blocking but too late!, just an (irrelevant) sidenote though, not all EC46 members show this upcoming one to be a reversal, not sure about EPS & GEFS.
  17. feb1991blizzard
    3 SSW's in one season and hardly any snow anyone??
  18. feb1991blizzard
    Dennis Yes - noticed that, i have a feeling of very very strong blocking regime late March, i might do a post later if i can find all the charts i need, unfortunately though because the transition is likely mid March or after, most on here will hope my forecast goes as well as the rest of mine this winter.
  19. feb1991blizzard
    Actually quite a nice displacement SSW showing.
  20. feb1991blizzard
    Don Thought so - i was hoping against hope though that it would be the reverse of what usually happens when the models lead us up the path but the Met stay resolutely mild then the models implode in about 3 suites, doesn't seem to happen the other way though.
  21. feb1991blizzard
    How about -12c uppers with a deep wrap around low.
  22. feb1991blizzard
    Met4Cast Whether or not a technical SSW is now irrelevant, they aren't going significant negative for any length of time and its a (unfavourable) displacement not a split.
  23. feb1991blizzard
    Methuselah Cant understand why they've kept wording of 16-30, there is absolutely nothing to suggest Easterlies for that timeframe, Northerly toppler at a push but more likely NW flow, SSW or not (possibly unfavourable displacement now but remains to be seen), you would see more evidence by now of an E'ly for late Feb / Early march, definitely not out the question by mid March.
  24. feb1991blizzard
    KTtom If i'm kidding myself like stated above, not bad, not bad, a ridge does get to within 1000 miles of where it needs to be.
  25. feb1991blizzard
    The models at the moment remind you of when you first have a go on the decks, you post a chart with a PM -4c flow at 384 and go 'not bad, not bad - there might be a dusting on Ben Nevis or Scafell Pike', like when you mix a tune in and the pitch control is about -2 away from where it needs to be and go 'not bad', but really it sounds like feeding time at the zoo.
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