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  1. I wish people would stop saying things like this 😞. 2018 and 2019 saw significant snow in lowland UK including right along the south coast of the UK. I have said this many times and I will say it again. It hasn't been cold because it has been displaced over the other side of the northern hemisphere. Its pure synoptics that have meant the cold isn't in Europe, that's it, plain and simple. A change in the synoptics over the coming week or two may well introduce much colder conditions into Europe, then....if that Strat warming has enough influence, we may then see that cold advected westward
  2. ....and there it is although to be fair anything past 96 hours is so uncertain at the moment. Its nice to have a fantasy though 😉
  3. Yes that frame but the trend on GFS and ECM is to drop heights a little further north and the short-med term trend isnt as good as it was. That said if it fdrops that bit more south then a good portion of UK could get a proper blast, but the southern half likely missing out.
  4. Thats going to go bad if cold is whats wanted 😞, soon to see shortwaves rippling east in atlantic. If it can head a touch further south though then we may be in with a shot.
  5. Sorry, somehow I ended up replying to the wrong post! oops! haha, I didn't sleep well last night! ha Thats a now out of date run and you are using a random perturbation. If you make forecasts using this method im afraid you will end up on the worst side of wrong many times before the winter is out 😞 Best use the operational run and then see how many ensembles and/or other models back it up 🙂
  6. I find comments like this extremely frustrating. People seem to forget so quickly! The only reason the cold is not over our side of the northern hemisphere is because of synoptics, plain and simple. The cold is there, its just the wrong side of the pole. Jan 2019 was pretty weak but still plenty of cold in the northern hemisphere and N Europe! Feb 2018 perhaps? Lack of cold in recent years! 😅
  7. Yes but it all depends on the synoptic setup. If the cold is too far east, it will most likely stay there. The ideal scenario is for a low to plunge deep into russia and sink south/southeast followed by high pressure settling to the north of it (east/northeast of UK). This is when we get the super deep cold. You can on occasion get a retrogressing high but these tend to be on the same latitude as the UK, so yes they can bring cold but that tends to be later in Jan or Feb when the continent/russia/siberia is at its coldest.
  8. Not in the near future! The northern hemisphere has the cold, its just over the opposite side. The recent synoptic setup has meant the cold has been pushed away from the pole and into eastern Siberia and Asia along with Alaska. Its not that the cold isn't there, its just in the wrong place.
  9. Oddly enough China Crisis, Wishful thinking. Its because of the video though. It looks cold and late autumn/early winter in the music video and it gives me that "feeling" :)
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