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  1. Arpege and Harmonie suggesting some wintry showers for SE England tonight (hope this isn't too nowcasting for here...they are model output)
  2. I see the season of "look at those 10 day charts" has well and truly begun. Not getting into the hype yet, but certainly must be a small to moderate possibility that we end up with a colder, blocked scenario around mid/late November,
  3. Anyone know what the coldest August bank holiday record is?! This is GFS, and I note ECM is more generous if still cool.
  4. I share your frustration - the last time I had a proper thunderstorm in the UK was 2014. Yet we could very easily have decent thunderstorms any time in the next 4 days - maybe the slightly lower potential will work in our favour.
  5. Weren't Hurricane Irene and Katia in 2011 thought to have had influence in our unusually hot September that year? Was a long time ago so forgive me if I am under the wrong impression.
  6. I know what you mean. I had two good thunderstorms last year, one in Serbia, the other in Albania. I don't even have the option to go abroad for a proper thunderstorm this year!
  7. I believe our Met Office issued it. We share names with the Met Office in Ireland (you may know that bit!)
  8. To quote her, "Ripped the top of a morrisons truck off though. Shit flying everywhere. I grew up with these but thats the closest ive been. It was in tring/cheddington area." (she's from US, hence grew up with them). I'm always sceptical when people say they've seen a tornado, but certainly sounds like she experienced something of note.
  9. Tornado (or similar) reported near Aylesbury - a friend of mine said she drove through it, things flying everywhere, roof ripped off Morrisons truck.
  10. We should get no more excited than we did about the output last night at this range. It is model porn, for sure, but how often have we seen model porn for it not to happen? November 2009 was something else - from the second I saw that modelling over a week out, I knew (and I am sure others did) that that was going to be something exceptional. This requires very exact behaviour of an undeveloped Atlantic low. Sure it might happen. It should be watched for. But it is highly unlikely even on current modelling - I am not even certain that the cold will arrive for most of us.
  11. Personally if it is just a couple of rumbles, then I would call it a thundery shower. There should be a linguistic distinction between that and something producing dozens or more strikes of lightning.
  12. One day it will happen! Didn't the JMA release something quite detailed and localised for Japan last year? I could be wrong. And does anyone have a link to the AROME precipitation model? I have a link to 10pm tonight but think there is a 24 hour run?
  13. I think he is specifically relating to his area on the south coast - I don't think anyone is expecting this afternoon's trough to affect anywhere along the M4, let alone the south coast.
  14. It's always a failure down here - the north and the midlands get most of the storms. That said, the actual clouds look threatening here in NW London and I don't think this morning is a write-off yet.
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