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Everything posted by seb

  1. Following a brief shower and a few flashes & thunder around 3:30 it's sunny in Ashford with a temperature of 26 degrees and apparently a feels like temp of 31. Positively Florida-feel. I think we are in for a few surprises in the very SE corner of the country. Regardless of modelling... it just feels like it.
  2. High humidity at cool-ish temps much healthier to sleep, especially if you suffer from allergies though. And the running costs are hugely different! But yes, aircon where possible and affordable all the way. There’s nothing better.
  3. No need for aircon. I was looking into it and in the end decided to tryan air cooler a few days ago. £90 on Amazon reduced from £150. I put 8 pints of water in the fridge yesterday morning and the ice packs in the freezer, put it all in the air cooler 10 minutes before bed time. Result: best night’s sleep in ages and definitely completely different from the sweating, tossing and turning during last year’s heatwaves. Bedroom a lovely 18 degrees this morning while the rest of the house is 24. One thing is important - you have to leave a window open, even if just a little bit. Otherwise everything feels damp. It comes on wheels so easy to move and it’s with me in the office right now ?
  4. I really don’t get this obsession with questioning the MetO. Just for the record, the yellow warning for Ciara was issued last week on Tuesday (Feb 4) and she was named at the same time. So it’s EXACTLY the same this week and the warning makes clear that, at this time, they think the impacts and wind speeds will be a tad lower (subject to change obviously).
  5. Storm Dennis has been officially named by the MetO and a yellow warning is no in place for Sat/Sun. Repeat of Ciara?
  6. Storm Dennis has been officially named by the MetO and a yellow warning is no in place for Sat/Sun. Repeat of Ciara?
  7. Easily strongest gusts of the day in Ashford, Kent now. Models entirely spot on. I’d guess mid 70s and squall line not anywhere near here yet.
  8. One big difference is that an area which is exposed to 50 or 60mph winds several times each winter has far less trees which are likely to fall during 70-75mph winds when compared to areas that don’t normally expect what is considered a windy day in other areas. On top of that, the SE is particularly bad at dealing with trees near train tracks, busy roads and power lines. The warnings take into consideration damage to rail, road and power infrastructure. The more damage is likely, the lower the threshold for higher warning levels. Not that any of that excuses the extremely narrow/limited area of the current amber warning as the areas 100 miles north and west of the current warning area are not any different when it comes to impact on infrastructure.
  9. MetO press release calling it the strongest storm since 2013. Just popped up as breaking news on Sky News app.
  10. Looks like the MetO press release makes clear that more areas could receive amber and it also states that Ciara will be the strongest storm since 2013... just popped up as breaking news on the Sky News app. Re the SE amber warning - clearly that must have access to more detailed date than us to warrant putting the area up to amber as early as this morning.
  11. Amber warning for South Coast and Southeast. MO seems pretty confident that’s the worst affected area which goes in line with latest high-res models.
  12. Not quite sure where anyone sees any downgrades. Predicted gust speeds are increasing with every update in central and southern areas as is the duration of the strongest gusts.
  13. If only there were some official stations around here!!
  14. Yes I think we are quite sheltered from NE winds whereas we get full blast SW winds. Our own little microclimate haha. On that note, not a cloud in the sky, not even a breeze at 21 degrees at 7:55. Bring on the heat!
  15. I don’t understand why no forecast can get it right for NE Ashford (Singleton, Great Chart etc.)?! All of them underestimate Tmax in the summer and overestimate in the winter. It’s currently 25 degrees according to my weather station (in the shade, at two meters and freestanding). Ashford WOW station shows 24.9 degrees. Max today according to MetO is 21 with all others showing 20 or 21. We don’t get much influenced by a sea breeze or sea temps in general here, despite what models assume. It really can’t be that hard?! Considering MetO is predicting 31 here for tomorrow, and taking into account we are usually 2-4 degrees higher than forecast... I’d say it’s going to be HOT.
  16. Nothing like last week here in Ashford but a good show either way. It’s feels positively like a Florida morning now. Had a strike in the field behind the garden with instant loud thunder which woke up the dogs so lots of coffee needed. The strike tripped the main fuse as well grrrr!
  17. Oh yeah just checked... basically storms across Kent and nothing else. But that goes in line with the convective outlook and again, depending on what model blend they use for those graphics storms won't show. She did say that in a roundabout way... but yes, not very clear.
  18. Do you mean the "rain preview" on the app/website? That's automated and not fed by the high res model so won't pick up storms that have not formed yet.
  19. 10:30 update - NICE!! http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/121664-convective-outlook-tuesday-18th-june-2019/page__pid__1084381#entry1084381 Primary Focus is the development which occurs from 15Z Onwards across the SE of England, upwards of 50,000 strikes possible through the evening and tonight (that may be an understatement) and considerable C/G action and within the cloud as well. Gloud Growth all the way up to 40,000 ft once we get the shortwave and cooling aloft above 500mbs (there is quite intense differential thermal advection occuring later today and it makes the profile of the atmosphere highly unstable) Risk of Torrential rain rates (in excess of 150mm/h and surface accumulations of 50mm in places. Small Hail and Straightline gusts exceeding 50 knts esp across the BLACK BOX AREA THIS EVENING and at FIRST TONIGHT .
  20. Best (UK) storm I've ever experienced followed a day of drizzle at 15 degrees, warm front moving up from the SW increasing temp to 21 degrees at the same time as a MCS moving in from France. Bang.
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