Man With Beard

The ARPEGE 12Z is out ... stronger winds still for the bottom half of E Sussex and Kent, along with Cornwall ... looking more and more like the Channel Islands might get a really serious storm

Just catching up with this ... fair enough! I think I was referring to the ECM/UKMO at the time ... still, events have moved on a lot - all models agreeing the low itself will travel through southern parts of the UK now.

Update on Thursday's storm: The most severe winds are more frequently being modelled to the North France coast (including the Channel Islands), where risks of 100mph winds are still very much alive. Whilst that may sound like better news for the South coast of England, the brunt of the storm remains modelled uncomfortably closeby, and so it is simply too early to rule out the more severe 90mph+ impacts of the storm brushing the southern counties, or indeed a further southerly correction removing storm force winds altogether. 50 miles north of the coast, or away from a line from Bournemouth to Norfolk, not much to worry about at this stage. The UKV brings 90mph+ winds to Cornwall first thing on Thursday, and then 88mph to the SE coast later on: The UKMO brings 90mph winds to Kent, and the ARPEGE isn't far off, with Cornwall also seeing high winds: The GFS has similar zones for highest impact but probably 75-80mph at the most extreme:

That's the recent trend, yes. But with the low having shifted at least 400 miles south in the past 36 hours, it would be good to see a few more runs before calling it.

Latest 00z charts for Thursday maintain a southerly track for Thursday's storm, UKMO remains most severe with 948mb and 100mph winds for parts of the South Coast. ECM slightly more measured at around 80mph and GFS in the 70s for mph.

Good grief UKMO! Surely overdone! ECM not massively different (though 50 miles makes a big difference for Cornwall!)

ECM continues to be wild for next Thursday morning - 947mb MSLP as the storm enters Ireland Last night's ECM ensembles were mostly similar, ranging between 941mb and 960mb Many other models almost as severe this morning: UKMO 954mb, ICON 955mb, GEM 958mb

Understandably some concerns already for next week, but some models are showing a heck of a lot of rain in the next 48 hours for many areas, not just NE Scotland:

It's a good job the precipitation charts aren't for snow this evening! Whilst many models bring in no mentionable rain at all for the next 18 hours away from the extreme S coast, a few short range models have 10-30mm quite widely across the southernmost 20 miles! I suspect the latter will be closer to the mark judging by the radar?

Evening all, definitely potential for something stormy over the next 10 days as the "mother low" looks close to the sweet spot for a damaging secondary low to form in the jet stream. Also, the ECM continues to be obsessed with bringing shocking amounts of rain to South Wales

And yet by pure fluke we've had two decent days here on the Solent, particularly this afternoon which has been sunny and locally up to 18C. Never did I think we'd get conditions and temperatures like that from a chart like this.

ECM having a go at Indian Summer v3.0 The overall synoptic setup looks far less promising for this type of eventuality, though - this is absolute best case scenario for warmth from the forecast situation, and a stones-throw from something much, much colder. I wouldn't bet my house on this coming off.

ECM D10 for 850s - That's about as much of a contrast in weather as you can get across northern Europe:

Not a forecast by any means, but interesting to see the UKMO now pushing a new round of high 850s for the end of the week: Agreement strong-ish that the warmth will finally get flushed through by next weekend - at the moment...

This was the ECM three days ago. This morning's ECM looks rather different for the same time frame: Bit of a shame. The sun still getting through at times the further south you go:

One for the nerds - not quite hitting 20C uppers this weekend any more but 19C is still pretty earth shattering. Record October temps for the top of Brecon Beacons in Wales

The warmth appeared slightly stronger on Sunday/Monday according to the ECM raw maxes (24-25C), at least in the southern half - and interestingly also Wednesday though that seems a little more uncertain. I'm very aware that if the positioning of the high is not absolutely optimal, then, giving the time of year, a high pressure could initiate a cooling trend over the course of a few days if the source is off central Europe rather than Mediterranean areas - so keeping the Atlantic lows at bay is no guarantee of warmth any more - we would need them to remain perfectly positioned just to our west or south-west to keep a southerly "pump" going, a bit like what happened in early September. Though if the GFS 06Z is correct, the warmth will disappear another way given it produces a new low out of absolutely nowhere!

Not sure really, I thought it was winds coming from Biscay but upon closer inspection they are coming off the continent I've studied other historical charts and a 10C-12C increase upon uppers should be achievable at this point in the year in optimal conditions, which are usually light winds, continental draw, sunny skies, build up of warmth, etc - all of which would appear to be in place? This was the hottest chart I could find in the ECM ensembles - 26C on Sunday near Cambridge as a raw maximum, so given usual adjustments could result in something like 28C. But nothing higher than that, and in general a couple of degrees less. 30C appears off the table. Mind you, the date record for Sunday is 26.1C, so we could achieve that. (EDIT: just seen other posts above which may provide better answers than I've given)

Some daily temperature records are under slight threat this weekend - surprising that they aren't likely to be exceeded greatly considering the uppers / sunshine levels forecast, but I think the sea-track of the air is probably moderating the potential modelled maximums. Here are the marks to beat: Saturday 7th October: 26.7C Sunday 8th October: 26.1C (this one looks particularly vulnerable) Monday 9th October: 27.8C (unlikely to go) Interestingly, all the maximum temperature records between 5th October and 10th October were set in 1921, with daily maxes between 25C and 29C. What a spell of weather that must have been! Although the uppers were nothing like what's forecast for this weekend - a more continental draw must have allowed higher temperatures:

Cloud cover doesn't look like much of a problem on Saturday for England/Wales Let's not derail the thread any further, eh?

Not even close IIRC. 17C probably the most extreme I can remember in 2011. But that's just my memory.

It's been a year of strange heatwaves at strange times, and here we go again with a "heatwave" coming up, well, at least relative to what one would expect for October. The GFS tonight goes full circle from its runs of 48 hours ago and is not only completely pro the warm period, it now wants it to continue well into next week, with 24-25C each day Saturday 7th to Wednesday 11th.

Appears to confirm CET must have been at least 17.0C as it is given as higher than June's?

I'll raise you. 20C uppers upon closer inspection. Raw actual maxes 25C on both Saturday and Sunday - can we still add on the summer "usual" 2C in October to get to 27C?

I know we've become accustomed to charts we thought were impossible, like 40C in the UK, but this is right up there - 19C uppers off the Scottish coast in early October!