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Man With Beard

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Everything posted by Man With Beard

  1. Man With Beard
    Regarding the shortwave - it's a bit too early to worry about it IMO. Even if one wasn't showing at this point, history tells us one could appear at short notice anyway. The shortwave is currently "for information", not "for forecast". Well, that's my view anyway
  2. Man With Beard
    Hi again! The winter fun and games for 2023-24 have truly begun! My first port of call when tracking an easterly is the ECM mean ... and it looks reasonably decent for a NW block by D10, though of course bearing in mind this is still some way off:
  3. Man With Beard
    Nothing could possibly be as wet as October 2000!
  4. Man With Beard
    Today's Weather - Daily highs and lows - Netweather WWW.NETWEATHER.TV Jersey appears to have reached 100mph. No major Met Office reporting stations topped 80mph on the mainland. Not sure about France but I think there might have been 180km/h gusts?
  5. Man With Beard
    I think the Met Office have done very well for all parts, actually. They highlighted the high risk early on, but never completely committed to the storm, as was represented by the warning matrix they put out. It was on such a knife edge, they would have been foolish not to put out an amber warning, but they were clearly also right to retract warnings and not move to the red warning. A few years back, I felt the Met Office were all over the place with their warnings, but they nail them for my area of the UK 9 times out of 10 these days.
  6. Man With Beard
    I think it's been pretty clear for 48 hours that Southampton was just going to see an average storm. It will pick up a bit during the morning as the back edge of the storm swings past.
  7. Man With Beard
    That's what I sense ... might be just enough to keep wind speeds sensible on the S Coast
  8. Man With Beard
    On some models, there appears to be a small initial area of highish winds for Dorset/IOW/S Hampshire/Sussex in the next few hours that could gust 60mph plus. Although wasn't due to reach Chichester for a couple of hours yet!
  9. Man With Beard
    And perhaps the reason some hi-res models get close to 100mph for Cornwall, yet GFS doesn't?
  10. Man With Beard
    25 miles difference in track will make a massive difference in the far SE
  11. Man With Beard
    Just to be awkward ... St Agnes in the Isles of Scilly, 107mph. Unless The Needles counts?
  12. Man With Beard
    Well Sky News seem to agree about the sting jet. I quote: Sting jet could bring 100mph winds to very small area There is a possibility of a sting jet - a small core of yet stronger winds - developing with Storm Ciaran. These are associated with areas of rapidly deepening areas of low pressure and will be best remembered from the storm of 1987. In essence, this is a small area of very intense winds, occasionally exceeding 100mph. Mostly they affect an area of only 30 miles across and are of a fairly short duration; three to four hours.
  13. Man With Beard
    I'm no expert on sting jets, and considering the METO haven't even mentioned it you'd think it won't happen, but you'd imagine there'll be widespread red warnings tomorrow morning if it did.
  14. Man With Beard
    Not as serious as others. Winds just about up to 70mph for SE coasts, perhaps a touch more for Cornwall. Seems to peak earlier than other models.
  15. Man With Beard
    Hampshire and IOW have declared a "major incident" because of the storm ... IOW perhaps justified, but a bit OTT for Hampshire? They need to ring that school up in Eastbourne instead!
  16. Man With Beard
    That is insane for E Sussex. I remember going to school in the 1990 storm, and a tree fell in the playground 5 minutes before break time, in a place kids often congregated at. Very lucky kids were not killed.
  17. Man With Beard
    Yeah apart from between 1 and 3 inches of rain in 24 hours, and gusts 50-60mph, pretty ordinary for the inland south
  18. Man With Beard
    The extra worry I have is that the trees are still in 70-80% leaf down here ... surely that is going to increase the chances of trees coming down?
  19. Man With Beard
    I live in Fareham too these days - I'm not expecting this to be as bad Storm Eunice from 2022 for our neck of the woods, what do you think?
  20. Man With Beard
    80 mile difference at T18 ... worrying!!!! Meanwhile, if I'm reading it right the AROME 12Z brings 140kph-149kph (so about 90mph) winds to W Cornwall and the coasts of E Sussex and Kent, along with 80mph along most of the S Coast: which looks a bit higher than the UKV 03Z this morning (although is a newer version of the UKV out yet?) Another model I pay attention to is the HARMONIE, which is pretty similar to the AROME, except I think the 140km winds affect W Sussex and the tip of S Devon, too:
  21. Man With Beard
    Every time a major storm threatens, 1987 gets mentioned doesn't it ... but with good justification! You've summed it up well. I'll never forget being woken at 2am to this unbelievable sound, looking out of the window and thinking the world was going to end - it felt like being inside a massive tornado. And I was 40 miles inland! My nearest station recorded 97mph gusts which is just outrageous so far from the coast. I suspect what the Channel Islands are going to experience might be comparable.
  22. Man With Beard
    An added problem with modelling wind gusts is that accuracy is not comparable with, say, temperature forecasts. I would suggest that if a model is showing 80mph winds at the location of particular weather station, what we can expect to see recorded is anything between about 70mph and 90mph - usually this ends up being lower for inland stations, which are not always favourably placed for the highest gusts, and a bit higher for coastal stations where nothing is in the way of the wind. For now, the potential for really serious winds (lets say 80mph plus) appears restricted to Cornwall, NW Devon, obviously the Channel Islands, E Sussex coast and S Kent coast. However, the potential for something generationally exceptional remains for Cornwall and the Channel Islands, according to some models. The latest UKV, for example, gives approx 100mph for St Ives in Cornwall, and well over 100mph for the Channel Islands
  23. Man With Beard
    Most trees are still in leaf here. How much will that increase the impact of wind on the trees? I always thought 60mph with leaves was something like as damaging as 75mph without leaves. You do realize there are still short range models pumping out 90mph plus for Cornwall?
  24. Man With Beard
    I know most of you north of M4 have turned your attention to snow rather than storms, (and for good reason!) but south of M4, there are more immediate worries! Just put of interest, I trawled through the ECM ensembles and was surprised to see much more extreme members even at just T36. Fortunately this is an outlier! Although, while members like this still exist, it's a reminder that millions on the south coast and SE are not far off something pretty serious, and we dodge it, or see a slightly moderated version of what's possible, it won't have been by much.
  25. Man With Beard
    A few more takes for Thursday: AROME 12Z not dissimilar to ARGEPE 12Z, though look how close the 100mph winds get to Cornwall on this one: Meanwhile GFS 12Z shows a strong storm but not particularly serious away from the Channel Islands, and the system perhaps a touch south - which is all it would need to spare the S coast of the more severe aspects?
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