Bolt From Blue

Methuselah Me three. It depends if enough energy and forcing is available this far up. Seen it reach Colchester and fizzle too many times in recent years because of these factors. Time will tell.

Beautifully taken pictures. I guess the level of saturation is suppressing potential lightening from these cells. A shame in a sense as things have picked up a lot.

That’s awesome, looks like you can never say never. I wonder if we can get any scraps here on the East Anglian coast

Elevated Supercell north of Hastings?

That really highlights what an impactful amount of rainfall large areas of the UK has seen. It just goes to show that even when you prepare we often get caught out, especially here in East Anglia when events like this can be decades apart, and towns and villages have expanded on natural run offs etc. I hope anyone affected has a swift recovery.

What a day here in East Suffolk, I've been busy driving in my coach around evacuating Thomas Mills school in Framlingham and Stradbroke High. This was Framlingham just an hour after we got clear and the river burst. The Video is just outside Dennington not long after the buses were released from the school, my good friend Steve who was driving the Coach made it through, the car not so lucky. 76mm of rain in Charsfield up to 1500hrs, which is the closest village with a figure, so likely much the same around the area. Hope you can see the uploads because I'm not good with such things! NJVY0762.MP4

Just like that things have come to life very close, time to watch the show.

AROME was close but earlier with initiation. I'm staying up now, appears the French MCS has not had an adverse effect on things.

This has me concerned too, one of three possible options with this. 1 It hoovers up all the CAPE and decays leaving a turned over mess and nothing for those in the warning area. 2 Kent clipper and North Sea Special. 3 Kent and the E/A coast get something noteworthy as per MetCheck. The Channel Island storms are likely forming off outflow.

I gather we are expecting another poor effort over the weekend regarding MUCAPE and potential overnight storms? Not much being said about it other than it is a plume but not a plume, which to me implies the low is not disrupting and setting up the more classic type scenario but instead doing what it did back in June which lead to the energy staying over France and steering winds from the NE= Kent clipper/North Sea rumble/subsequent fail. I know we still have a day or two to watch but any latest info is always much appreciated. As a side note, had a lovely BBQ at work Tuesday evening under the Cambridge anvil, I couldn't miss out on burgers to do the hours drive though, guess I'm not hardcore enough. Fantastic pictures going round too.

More grey sky, is this the undercut we were warned about? Another week or more of waiting for some decent sun if this HP sits in the wrong place throughout this expected settled spell. Its been a fantastic season so far for many areas, decent sun big convection etc. But for some reason there are patches that have managed nothing but grey sky since mid June. Still I'm not giving in yet something just has to give! Have a nice afternoon especially if you are enjoying some welcome sun and warmth.

Well we were only discussing this the other day, plumes don't cut it anymore. All the MUCAPE stays over France into the North Sea and across to Netherlands/Denmark because of wonky trajectory and steering winds keeping destabilising just out of reach. Only lucky grazes for areas mentioned (we had a small very average storm on Suffolk coast as the most northern extent) with decent storms in Kent and South Essex early hours Thursday morning only. Matches last year for here at least although that doesn't take much beating, will we ever see the likes of more Northerly trajectories that engulf much more of the country or were we just extremely unlucky?

Yes mentioned this last night, ESTOFEX going for relatively capped across much of France with developments growing upscale into the MCS across northern France SE UK. Will await this afternoon.

So it would seem the differences between how widespread and how much electrical activity are tied to how much energy can reach us (with everything else in place), which in turn is dependant on surface based storms over France in the afternoon modifying things too much. This happened back in June 2019 when supercells over France actually sat there hoovering up the energy and ruined what was supposed to be a good event. With all the shuffling East to West to contend with we could probably do with LESS surface based stuff happening over France to allow the energy to make it unmodified. Then we have Friday and Sat to iron out. Very exciting days ahead for most, could this break the deadlock for those that have missed out for years? I'd say best chance in a while.

Those CAPE and LI charts as always look strikingly similar to recent times with it all staying over France. I do hope as things draw closer we get in on the game, several days of very warm/hot temps and high humidity going out with nothing has become an unwelcome pattern over recent years.

More than probably, as it stands a dead cold front moving down from the NW after days of very warm/hot temps and high humidity. Massive SB and MU cape over northern France nothing in the south UK, if it does pop it will be northern UK just because. Not a forecast and hopefully won't happen like this, but I set my expectations low these days.

Yeah totally dig the last 5-10 year thing, "warm nose" is almost constantly capping things. Plumes as said don't cut it, they destabilize over the North Sea because of wonky trajectory with the MUCAPE covering France then remaining offshore in the North Sea stretching over to Denmark. July 2019 was the last and most classic example, although here we did get a lucky glance, the bulk was 30 miles offshore. This after days of raw record breaking heat, to add insult the storms had tops at flight level in the early evening (love for someone to verify) and it was a painful miss within a year of many misses. Last year? Well say no more. I'm still sure at some point somethings got to give so I just enjoy what I can and await the 90s throwback we used to see. Have a nice evening.

Quite extensive convective stratiform which may indicate the dry air intrusion has yet to reach here or we are now dependant on CZs later. Not that anything major was set to happen anyway, but it could be one of those catch 22 stratiform problems unless things time well this afternoon and evening, that is clearer slots, deeper convection along CZs along with overlap of dry air.

Anyone in east Kent? Looks like some cells fired south offshore in the last 15mins. Edit: Not gaining any traction.

When you read; "Kent Clipper" and "Not much energy to tap into" combined with "Severe over the near continent" You know how this will play out. Very little being said about it so unless by some godly change of fortune we get a nice surprise, expectations for me are very low. A casual eye this evening because I still can't help it either way!

Well that looked promising then fell to bits. Going through the radar it appeared the outflow of the strong cells offshore of Kent/Essex developed a small area that looked like forming a small MCS at 1930hrs ( anyone in Clacton see anything?). Once the cells died off the area lost intensity right as it came over, thought I heard a distant rumble before it reached. In all honesty it looks like the air has been turned over now and any available energy has lowered, the cold front will be pushing east as the night goes on whether this just pushes the plume away or activates some early hour storms for far SE remains to be seen. As for me, next one please unless something unexpected wakes me up. Now just as i post this area South of Brighton gains some intensity!

Nice to see some activity, cell just 20miles offshore here on Suffolk coast earlier gives me some hope for this evening/tonight. I would still say as others have said a good deal of this will end up in the North Sea should things develop later, I would want to see the Western extent of the plume engage around Brighton ( if the steering winds and trajectory of the plume are similar to this morning ). This would give East Sussex, the whole of Kent along with Eastern Essex and coastal Suffolk a good chance. Will be optimistic in watching today, have a good one!

Still powder here in east Suffolk, but yes it's looking like more convective elements getting into your area and also across north Norfolk too

Continental powder snow here on Suffolk coast since around 1830. Earlier snow and water on roads frozen solid underneath, large accumulations on open routes due to drifts. This is on par atm with 2018 round the area so will end up beating it. Schools closed to all key workers kids so no sideways action in my bus like the Essex boys. Take care if traveling in the area better still stay in.

Anything that can go wrong and would go wrong for the UK usually does, seen many times. There also seems to be an overwhelming amount of assumptions that this SSW will send us into the freezer. What if it's the 1 in 3 that has no impact? See first paragraph. So surely we must wait until the event has had a chance to happen and filter down, then look to see if the models pick up a more favourable trend, as the onset looks disappointing bar a few days this week. We will either get lucky or we won't and I will take a few days away from this to account for the above. I suggest anyone who can't control themselves do the same it works wonders.