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Dunstable Snow

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Dunstable 446ft ASL
  • Interests
    Meterology and sport mainly football and cricket
  • Weather Preferences
    cold with frost & snow in winter; hot and dry in summer

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  1. Just had a quick glance through the Northern hemisphere profile on the latest GFS and the profile up stream and over the pole looks pretty conducive to a largely unsettled and cool to cold outlook for the time of year with even some transitory snow for the south. I may have given up on Fulham retaining our Premier league place for next season but I have not given up on some more snow in the north east Chiltern hills between now and the end of April !
  2. Its not often you see - 40c T850's modelled and they are modelled on our side of the NH for once. A long way off but I feel more confident of a colder spell in early mid march this morning. The pattern is changing upstream and this could give us a cold zonal flow with potential lee northerly's/North easterlies and toppling cold high pressures. Good for the north and west and potentially other areas. Things could get better from there for cold. We will see,
  3. 1st January 1979 following a severe blizzard on New Years Eve 1978. I was growing up in Folkestone at the time. The snow started on Saturday 30th December and became heavy overnight into new years eve. It snowed on and off for much of new years eve but from evening onwards the snow was blizzard like and the heaviest I have seen. The depth was up to my knees ( I was 14 at the time) on new years day and nothing moved. Happy days !
  4. This thread reminds me of December 2015 with Knocker and SS providing 70% of the content and lots of oranges and reds on the anomaly charts. I didn't think for one minute that this February would turn into such a horrendous month for cold and take my mind back to that month! It was an interesting post from Singularity above. I suppose the message is that good background signals for cold can also work against us. Presumably the bad background signals for cold will always be bad ! I have just had a skirt through the GFS 12z NH view. Very little to get excited about based on this output. Just look at the air pressure over Iberia. It never gets below 1024mb throughout the run ! The only positive I could see was that pressure was rising over eastern Canada by the end of this run and the jet was arriving on our shores via a NW/SE trajectory. Its a long way off,certainly colder but not what the coldies amongst us would crave ( cold 850's on the GFS from PM North Westerlies are always overstated) but it may however lead to something better going forward. My gut feel and experience however remains confident of a cold and snowy period at some point during March, but more than likely mid month onwards.
  5. The date for March and April 1975 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/e/k/apr1975.pdf https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/e/f/mar1975.pdf
  6. Great post and a really interesting read. I wasn't old enough in 1970 to remember it but I remember the Spring of 1975 very well. I was 9 years old and living in Surrey at the time. There were a number of snowy episodes. That was a great spring for a number of reasons !
  7. An enjoyable and interesting thread to read and some interesting thoughts to be developed further over the coming months as we try to make sense of this season. It will be very interesting to see what, if anything,comes out from the Met Office by way of a post mortem. As referenced above, they have been much more bullish than they would normally be for much of this season regarding east or north easterly winds and cold and snowy conditions develop within the 16-30 day range. This has only heightened the frustration with what has been delivered !
  8. Your comment forced me to look at the score update. Well done so far to Newport ! Having just scooted through the NH view of the 12z GFS to the 4th March I think there is more chance of Fulham avoiding relegation from the Premier League this season than a significant cold snap at month end. Yes things turn a little colder due to a north westerly created by the north western extremity of the GB/Euro high extending up towards Greenland with support from an artic high, but at no time does it look anything exceptional and pressure remains high throughout western and southern mainland Europe, indeed by the end of the run the vortex lobe in eastern Canada is re-establishing and flattening the pattern. Having said this, I would be very surprised if we don't have a cold and snowy period during March/early April. My guess would be mid March onwards ! I really cant see anything significant before then but I very much hope I am wrong!
  9. I fully agree with TEITS views. The subject matter is complex enough without having to try and decipher a complicated narrative and the likes of Catacol and Singularity have done this excellently and at the same time have tried to provide some explanations as to why the teleconnections based forecasts have by and large gone wrong this year. Furthermore, I am sure there will be more on this subject from them over the coming months and I very much look forward to reading their further thoughts. Whilst I acknowledge that no explanation is required or, indeed, in my view expected from those others that have posted on these matters throughout the season, I for one would appreciate and value their thoughts should they have the time and desire to do so. It will, after all, only add to the learning for us all who partake on this great forum.
  10. That's a cracking mean chart. With reference to whether GFS or ECM is more likely very often we see a solution that is somewhere in between. That will not be the case for the middle of next week. My head is telling me it will be ECM but we need UKMO to join the party before I relax on this one. Whatever the outcome on the easterly next week the potential is clearly there for a long cold and snowy spell for many. Interestingly Stav D on BBC London Tonight at around 6.55pm specifically referenced the likelihood of easterly winds and sleet and snow for London and the South East from the middle of next week. The beeb would not be making those comments at this stage unless they were pretty confident of the outcome in my experience. Some great content in here again tonight by the way.
  11. Remember this event very well. I was working in Luton at the time and left work around 5.30pm. We had experienced heavy rain but walking to the car it was clear the rain was turning to sleet and wet snow. By the time I go home to Dunstable it was snowing heavily and we ended up with a 6/7 inch covering on the higher ground around the town. If I recall correctly the worst conditions were slightly east of us towards Hitchin. Unfortunately, and typical of many of the events at the time (excluding Feb 1991) the snow cover was gone within a couple of days. Very enjoyable whilst it lasted though !
  12. Yes fully agree, hope, expectation and the desire to be back in here in 3 hours time is fully intact. The good thing about where we are now given the output and background signals is the potential for upgrades is greater than downgrades. Not often we can say that.
  13. Agreed not the best for reasons already discussed but will the high start to build to the North West as the PV transfers East and bring lows on a NW/SE trajectory through the UK ? It could be a lot better but it could also be much worse. As NWS says pressure remains low across Iberia.
  14. Should also have included Nick Sussex in my request list above despite his team ruining my new years day.
  15. Can you see herds of wilder beasts or the hanging gardens of Babylon GP ? Glad to see the GSFP has lightened the mood until the next panic starts. I think we are going to need regular updates from the likes of Glacier Point, Nick F, John H Blue Army Singularity Catacol, BB1962, Carithian and Steve Murr to keep us all fully informed on the ongoing direction of travel. There is just too much information to digest sometimes but updates from these guys should keep us on the straight and narrow.
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