smith25
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Posts posted by smith25
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I see the GFS has had it's wobble and back tracked slightly. I wouldn't worry it will come back in a couple of days. Although I'm going to stick my neck out and say next week is unlikely to be snow fest for most of us and the models may back track to a middle ground between the ECM and the GFS. I hope I'm wrong.
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Ecm comes full circle again as predicted!. Plenty of time of changes this week, good or bad for snow lovers, just don't get so hung up on each run and don't start looking into too much detail until is coming into the 48 to 72 hour range. I'm expecting the GFS to have a wobble over the next day or so.
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3 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:
EC12h, it doesn't deliver the white flurries to the hungry British snow fans.
Chart 15th of January.
Way way to far away to look at precipitation yet.
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I'm glad it's come back on board 12hrs earlier than expected!
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I'll be very surprised if the ECM back tracks tonight. As I mentioned yesterday the runs tomorrow, in my opinion, will start showing the cold spell.
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Just now, mulzy said:
Disappointing ECM at day 6. Heights into Greenland are not as high as the other models and that shortwave to the west of Iceland causing issues as are the heights over Iberia.
How does it compare to yesterdays 0z?
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Just now, Mcconnor8 said:
Cracking ECM coming I can feel it
Now you've done it!
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1 minute ago, warrenb said:
John doesn't do ramps. He has a subtle increase in possibility
Actually I can remember one ramp going back a few years ago!
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If I remember rightly, going by years of watching, this model confusion is a good sign that a decent cold spell is coming. I suspect the ECM will start moving towards the cold spell after the weekend. I'd only be concerned if the ukmo stops showing this for a few runs. In the end we'll probably end up with a halfway house like usual.
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It's like clockwork every year. This is the typical downgrade before a slight upgrade to a middle ground scenario.
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How about we get the cold air in first before worry about the breakdown. Plenty of ups and downs to come before that happens.
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1 minute ago, weathercold said:
But many have discussed lowland England snow and a two week cold spell…not seeing either.
Which was a possibility and still could happen.
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1 minute ago, weathercold said:
Interesting to see many disagreeing - must be looking at different charts.
a lot of hopecasting going on here - reality is they have downgraded aside from an isolated UKMO run.I was expecting a downgrade over the weekend. This is pretty common but beware this is also just one variation of many possibilities and so far only one run.
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Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
Thank you for the warm welcome back folks, very much appreciated. I haven’t lurked until recently, glad to see the forum as lively and ‘shoot from the hip’ as ever.
For me this huge ‘rounding out’ of an LP to our SW doesn’t seem reasonable in the hemispheric set up we have. Not to say it won’t but ECM 12z to me is case in point. Also I think there is some very extensive cold pooling this year….might be imaginary but it does seem so.
BFTP
Welcome back BFTP. I'm a long time lurker here and you are definitely one of the posters I always pay attention too.
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2 minutes ago, terrier said:
I'm sure they'll be plenty of ups and downs over the weekend to come until we get to around Tuesday. The usual par for the course is downgrades over the weekend with plenty of upset posters followed by a minor upgrade Monday/Tuesday to minor cold event. They'll only be upgrades this weekend if this cold patch is going to be something special.
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Snow has slowed right down here now. Thought it was going to last much longer if I'm honest
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Just starting to snow lightly here.
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Just now, danm said:
Yes very likely.
Lamp post watching it is tonight then.
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Anyone know if Essex is likely to join in later?
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I see another forum tantrum is in process. Relax everyone as what makes you think the current output is more certain than the colder runs yesterday?. The model outputs in the medium term are unreliable. Give it until Thursday afternoon and then judge the Christmas to new year model runs.
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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Yes sorry i was wrong, its a brilliant run, that is if you like hardly any snow for anyone all the way to 216 and then a warm atlantic trough sat slap bang over Ulster rendering the 240 even worse, apologies, i called this run badly wrong.
Not to nit pick but looking for details of any snow at this range is pointless. Get the cold in first and it's especially not worth worrying about charts in the 6 to 10 day period.
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Just now, Kasim Awan said:
Ecm trending gfs way so it's likely underdoing it as not caught up yet
Should catch up tonight hopefully I think.
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1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:
Bare in mind that when the 06z run a day or two ago was showing mild, a lot of people were saying "it has less data ignore it"
I presume that doesn't apply to todays 06z run?I don't believe that's true anyway.
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
To my utter lack of surprise the models are now coming together to some middle ground. This is what happens almost every time with these types of events. Yet people always get caught up in the drama.