smith25

To my utter lack of surprise the models are now coming together to some middle ground. This is what happens almost every time with these types of events. Yet people always get caught up in the drama.

I see the GFS has had it's wobble and back tracked slightly. I wouldn't worry it will come back in a couple of days. Although I'm going to stick my neck out and say next week is unlikely to be snow fest for most of us and the models may back track to a middle ground between the ECM and the GFS. I hope I'm wrong.

Ecm comes full circle again as predicted!. Plenty of time of changes this week, good or bad for snow lovers, just don't get so hung up on each run and don't start looking into too much detail until is coming into the 48 to 72 hour range. I'm expecting the GFS to have a wobble over the next day or so.

Way way to far away to look at precipitation yet.

I'm glad it's come back on board 12hrs earlier than expected!

I'll be very surprised if the ECM back tracks tonight. As I mentioned yesterday the runs tomorrow, in my opinion, will start showing the cold spell.

How does it compare to yesterdays 0z?

By Monday the ECM will fall in line. Straight after that the GFS will back track for a couple of days. That's what usually happens at least!.

Now you've done it!

Actually I can remember one ramp going back a few years ago!

If I remember rightly, going by years of watching, this model confusion is a good sign that a decent cold spell is coming. I suspect the ECM will start moving towards the cold spell after the weekend. I'd only be concerned if the ukmo stops showing this for a few runs. In the end we'll probably end up with a halfway house like usual.

It's like clockwork every year. This is the typical downgrade before a slight upgrade to a middle ground scenario.

How about we get the cold air in first before worry about the breakdown. Plenty of ups and downs to come before that happens.

Which was a possibility and still could happen.

I was expecting a downgrade over the weekend. This is pretty common but beware this is also just one variation of many possibilities and so far only one run.