R.P. McMurphy

Good run already. # Stronger heights to our North. Stronger block:

Thats Lovely. That big pool of PPN looks like Lake Effect from Warm North Sea... Sexual Chocolate !

Yes, a good point to pick up, could be a decent Lake Effect ... Credit to Weatherquestions. Just to show what a LE can actually produce given the correct fine details: http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/huge-lake-effect-snow-expected-20140106

Yes, I agree with this sentiment. Any precipitation would probably fall as rain at first, then perhaps sleep/snow later on. North would be a different story, but heights always help. I still feel this is the first bite of the cherry though, and the real cold / snow is coming towards the end of the month. Edit: Just to add it's mere speculation as trying to pinpoint falling snow is hard enough at T24 let alone now. Just basing on latest runs.

Yep, agree with that. A short cold snap with potential snow should wet the appetitie of some members here. Atlantic to return, albeit IMO looking at the setups from the charts will be shortlived before more substantial blocking takes place and we get an actual decent cold SPELL running into February. The stage is set, the signals are there... Enjoy coldies, it's been a long time coming.

Hi Tamara, While it certainly looks interesting for next week, I still think you are correct in first estimations, re second bite of the cold further into the month.

Thanks for the update Carinthian, it appears your models have been quite the ever so reliant over the past couple of week, especially picking out the cold blast, kudos to you and your team. The snow for Southern England, are you talking about the feature to cross the channel next week (rain to snow event)... But with more potential upgrades, who knows, they could get snowed in !

This will give you tingles first thing in the morning !

Yep thats true ba... But it's well into the future and all it takes is a little tweaking and who knows what will crop up. Certainly the first time of real interest to be viewing the models non the less.

Ignoring the OP, the Control is lovely.

Lol BA... But to V's point, it's pretty darn annoying in the media... I keep hearing it's a "one off phenomenom".... The Media... Sigh.

Yep, very marginal for the UK - good for HIGH HIGH ground... Lots of twists and turns to come... Can the block hold out, or will the Atlantic smash through and break it? Fun times ahead.. It's probably time to Ensemble watch from here...

With a few corrections your looking at battleground heavy snow UK wide. You are correct though, at the moment Scotland and far North of England will be happy.

Holy Sheeshkebab if this came off:

Just noticed that, very nice indeed. Although it looks extremely marginal for the south on that, but North would see snow.

The battle for Middle Earth, begins...

In the words of Sharon Osbourne... Faaaaabulous...

Some members = stellar. Pick of the bunch for me.. It's funny, some will remember Frosty, myself and a few select others looking for trends re the GFS at least a week ago or maybe two... And by that point it was showing similar developments with cold flooding from the East... Albeit it reverted to more Zonal, but as we get nearer the time frame it was predicting, it's looking very much the same. If Pert 12 came off this place would finally meltdown.

One is the 850's and the second is the 2m surface.

Nice to see... 35-45% building towards Scandinavia.

Yep - nothing set in stone yet. Signals are for cold. Signals are for Easterly/NE. Strat is warming = good sign. Atlantic = Powerful . My OP - Brief cold spell with snow showers, before Atlantic powers through again... More blocking in early feb = prolonged cold this time with snow.

NAE picks up the feature more: Note: a lot of rain for NW Scotland... Another feature for Wednesday:

No doubt about it Steve, coupled with your outrageously good post above, that chart speaks for itself, the GFS lately has fallen off the cliffe and cannot be trusted at all. Lets hope the revamp of it this year will also aid us in forecasting the future !

back to the models... As above.. Some places might see some snow from this chart, but height will help greatly. It's a long way off, but most of the models appear to be latching onto something colder during the second half of January. The only problem is, it's not too long before the Atlantic starts to fire up again. We really need the cold to dig in to our East and push, push, push, or I fear it's going to be over rather quickly. Time will tell, but very interesting developments, and finally a good time to be looking at the models !

Yep, I remember that one alright, pretty darn cold... Not to mention the snow... Best year I can remember that. I'm just trying to see various setups needed for snow in this area of the UK... You know how low we are and that never helps !