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Cavehill Snow

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Posts posted by Cavehill Snow

  1. 2 minutes ago, The Weather Watcher said:

    Frosty used to torture me with 1 million questions all the time lol. Then when he didn't get snow he cracked up, badly 😄

    I didn't remember his name but when we got cold rain with a few snow flakes thrown in and everybody be disappointed, he'd come on to claim his place had got 20cm of snow when someone else living within a few miles of him had zilch. Then he'd go mental when someone took the mickey out of him.

  2. 1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

    it won’t just be the ec46 .....if they are expecting another reversal wave to downwell then that will likely be with glosea support ...

    There was a lot of talk on here about the failure of glosea seasonal 2019 & 2020 winter forecasts. 

    Can I assume that glosea also provide mid term or monthly forecasts, or, do the Met use some other model for these?

  3. 1 hour ago, ronan said:

    From NI Weather..... 

    The NI Weather & Flood Advisory Service has issued the following weather warning. 

    A Warning of Snow & Ice has been issued for Northern Ireland.  This is something we have been monitoring & forecasting over the past several days. This is an update/amendment to our advisory and has been upgraded to a warning.   It's likely that this warning may be upgraded to Level 2 for some areas.

    Warning valid from 22:00 12/02/2021 Until at least 18:00 13/02/2021

    An Atlantic weather front will move into NI later Friday and throughout Saturday and as this encounters the very cold air currently in place, it is expected to turn readily to heavy sleet & snow, first in Western areas but extending to all parts overnight.  (Similar to the fairly widespread snowfall event the country experienced on 23-24th January)

    Accumulations of up to 5cm are possible quite widely across the country and as much as 10-15cm locally and more so over higher ground (Possibly as much as 20cm in one or two spots)  Some areas on higher ground & high level routes may become impassable for a time.  (Some coastal areas may see a more wintry mix)

    NB: Accumulations will again vary and some areas will likely see more than others.

    Strong winds of up to 30-50mph may be an additonal hazard, leading to temporary blizzard conditions in places exposed to the wind.  This combined with falling snow and possible freezing rain could cause some localised disruption to power supplies.

    Ice will become an issue across many areas, leading to hazardous driving conditions especially in areas with snow cover.

    There is a chance during Saturday afternoon of the sleet/snow possibly turning to rain in Western areas due to milder air assoicated with the weather front.    There is also a risk of a period of freezing rain in places which will may lead to dangerous conditions. 

    This warning may be upgraded to Level 2 at any stage so please keep an eye on our page.

    We will of course keep you updated on where the snowfall is and it's current track 🙂

    We will also be posting some charts/data regarding this possible widespread snowfall event.  Stay tuned.

    The weather forecast (6:55pm) on the bbcni news forecast snow on Saturday morning to turn to rain in the afternoon. This is in line with other forecasts over the last 24 hours. 

    That warning you posted seems to be an updated forecast even though it was issued before the tv forecast was aired. I can only assume that the tv broadcast was pre-recorded and was out of date by the time it was broadcast.

  4. 17 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Well this is going to be fun, 2 ECMs to look at every run!

    image.thumb.png.b3f2617acae5f4c980e6968d7cdd128b.pngimage.thumb.png.acc04256f3ef2099773f60cdca662c7e.png  
    At T216, similar themes - both models trying to break through heights to our south. The charts we're seeing at T144/T168 look like game over, but with a large area of heights stretching up to the NE, it's always a very close thing to bringing back cold from the east.

    Recently easterlies (e.g. 2013, 2018) have tended to be followed shortly after by more easterlies, so don't put the sledge away yet. (Actually I haven't got mine out yet, but it sounded nice to pretend 🙂  )

     

    Model overload! 

    There is already too many disagreements within suites between each run, never mind adding another model into the mix.

    • Like 5
  5. Mid term GFS (06z) slowing onset of mild, ECM going for strong mild outlook. BBC monthly going for mild next week with fair possibility of cold coming back week after because of negative AO, with high pressure in the baltic region. Caveats being this is fairly broad brush and dependent upon orientation of blocking high.

    Short term, both BBCNI & RTE going for snow Thursday coming into SW Ireland, not progressing as far as NI. Friday non descript but still cold north but mild south. Saturday morning rain SW, transient snow Ulster & NE Leinster turning back to rain in the afternoon. Very mild thereafter - looks like they are both following using ECM output.

    • Like 1
  6. 1 hour ago, Summer Snow said:

    Yes just not enough instability despite decent upper air temps unfortunately....  lower thicknesses and instability in eastern Scotland and eastern England thus the heavier streamers there......last Friday when ME were warning of significant accumulations this week, the charts had that unstable air pushed right over us, but from Saturday it became apparent in the models that wasn't going to happen....disappointing.....Thursday's snow seems to be getting downgraded now too .....weaker than envisaged and prob won't reach some areas, then turn to rain Thursday night or Friday morning where it has snowed ......cursed we are ha 

    When you talk about unstable air, is there a way of directly measuring that, or, is it an indirect measure like humidity, pressure level / gradient? TIA

  7. 2 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

    That meteoceil  chart i posted earlier does look complicated for sure.I think it shows every piece of the split northern arm.

    If we look at the NW view at t 144 on the GFS it looks more like we are used to.We can see there is enough energy over the top of the ridge to keep a lid on it getting too far north. 

    761866408_viewimage(7).thumb.png.2da96bcbde9e9cfd7146cdbaae8cfb52.png

    The main thrust of the jet is across to the south but frustratingly we see that cut off energy to the north just where it stops further amplification.

    Thats for the alternative chart and the explanation - i can now make sense of why the ridge doesn't build. Thanks

  8. 4 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

    Yesterday 1 mile south of me had a decent 3cm covering, and north of me by about 2 miles had a decent 5 cm covering. I had some snow on the car roof this morning, that's all. I really am cursed! AT least it's cold enough to use my logs!

    I think everyone in this forum is cursed - no one with any decent snow cover after all the hours put in here on netweather.

    • Like 1
  9. 1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

    Well really by day 6 it looks a bit of a stalemate.Both gfs/ukmp show the block is not giving enough to let the Atlantic right into the UK.

    It is more than likely the west will see something milder at least for a spell but a look at the gfs jet pattern at t144 shows the difficulty modeling is having in calculating the pathway forward.

    gfsnh-5-144.thumb.png.ec672b31ae60660b74224c8d7d0dd0b2.png

    The northern arm of the jet has no coherent pathway but does limited resistance to the ridge getting further north.The main energy in the jet is still running south so that Atlantic push remains quite indecisive up to there.

    Blue mentioned the jet stream charts earlier so. Normally when it is posted there is either one or two main arms around the globe. How rare (or not) is the current pattern and what has caused it? TIA

  10. 5 hours ago, IDO said:

    Looking at the T138 gefs the op sits in the middle and is similar to the mean with where the 0c isotherm sits:

    gens_panel_opu6.png

    There is a cluster like the UKMO which are more progressive and a cluster holding onto the best case scenario, and a cluster in support of the op. So as we were, a new signal and gfs is trying to resolve the forcing even at this range. As for what follows, a holding pattern looks the call, trough to the west -v- mid-lat HP to the east, UK caught in the middle?

    Thanks for the update.

    It's a pity the ensembles & clusters are not released at the same time as the operational model, as all being available together would provide a more rounded picture of probable ways forward (like your post above). Many people view the Operational only and make judgements on it alone and do not see the later released clusters / ensembles. I know the hardcore do view all the data, but many others like me do not. It would maybe help moderate some of the wild mood swings in here after each run.

    • Like 2
  11. 5 minutes ago, The Weather Watcher said:

    Only because they haven't been potent enough, there has never been a good cold pool to the North this winter. Plus I think sea temperatures are a little above average this winter.

    I think we would be closer to freezing daytime if we had managed to get some snow on the ground. Central belt of Scotland has an amber warning until 11pm tonight after getting heavy falls overnight. East Ulster coasts require winds a little south of east to get decent snowfall in sunshine & showers set ups. 

    Very disappointing overnight model runs, though i'll give it until tonight's runs before folding the cards. It looked last night like momentum was moving towards cold. How those models flip / flap so much - so much wasted time following the threads for weeks if we are to get nothing of substance.

    • Like 1
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