Cavehill Snow

On lunchtime weather forecast that northern western parts of Ireland to get some sleet with snow on high ground from frontal feature tonight. Very transient though so not much by way of snow cover likely. Cold rain for northeast, milder wet & very windy elsewhere.

I read somewhere that when dew points temperatures are high, snow will melt quicker than in direct sunlight. At 5pm yesterday my air temp was 2C and snow was mostly intact, by 9pm snow was all gone and temp was 4-5C with very little rainfall.

Went for walk with wife whilst still snowing - wind and small dry flakes swirling felt great but finished at lunchtime with only 3 or 4 cm. Slow thaw setting in - at least it hasn't rained. Not sure it was worth the forecasters hype, but still better than it not happening at all. Don't think i'll need the ruler looking at Sperrins photos.

I didn't remember his name but when we got cold rain with a few snow flakes thrown in and everybody be disappointed, he'd come on to claim his place had got 20cm of snow when someone else living within a few miles of him had zilch. Then he'd go mental when someone took the mickey out of him.

Agh gees, don't tell me its some spotty kid with a keyboard? Maybe that school guy on the forum years ago who lived on a mountain near Coleraine!

Thanks for the info. It sounds really positive and a near time upgrade rather than the usual downgrade of forecast. Just hope the "wintry mix" rather than snow for coastal areas doesn't come into play.

Looks good for the west, another miss for the east.

There was a lot of talk on here about the failure of glosea seasonal 2019 & 2020 winter forecasts. Can I assume that glosea also provide mid term or monthly forecasts, or, do the Met use some other model for these?

Moscow has 35 cm of snow on the ground and this weekend a super storm will dump another 40 cm. US expecting 5 snow storms over the next 10 days. Our measly 1-4 cm here will probably make more headlines here than events in US / Russia will in their homelands.

Can't happen, can it? BFTE only gave my place about 4-5 cm, whilst places 5 miles to my south had 10-15 cms. Neice in Wicklow got 30+.

The weather forecast (6:55pm) on the bbcni news forecast snow on Saturday morning to turn to rain in the afternoon. This is in line with other forecasts over the last 24 hours. That warning you posted seems to be an updated forecast even though it was issued before the tv forecast was aired. I can only assume that the tv broadcast was pre-recorded and was out of date by the time it was broadcast.

Model overload! There is already too many disagreements within suites between each run, never mind adding another model into the mix.

Mid term GFS (06z) slowing onset of mild, ECM going for strong mild outlook. BBC monthly going for mild next week with fair possibility of cold coming back week after because of negative AO, with high pressure in the baltic region. Caveats being this is fairly broad brush and dependent upon orientation of blocking high. Short term, both BBCNI & RTE going for snow Thursday coming into SW Ireland, not progressing as far as NI. Friday non descript but still cold north but mild south. Saturday morning rain SW, transient snow Ulster & NE Leinster turning back to rain in the afternoon.

Thanks for that - every day is a learning day. Any chance of snow cover for you tonight?

When you talk about unstable air, is there a way of directly measuring that, or, is it an indirect measure like humidity, pressure level / gradient? TIA

Thats for the alternative chart and the explanation - i can now make sense of why the ridge doesn't build. Thanks

Looks like there could some duration to that streamer, you may get lucky

I think we are too close for changes to be achieved for Thurs / Friday at this stage with a slow warm up occurring. I also believe we will get to the much milder temps as per BBC forecast but perhaps the arrival delayed to Tuesday / Wed.

Just saw weather on RTE - breakdown of sorts, but very slow. Rain / sleet / snow mix Thurs / Fri. They didn't commit to further outlook beyond the weekend, but Sunday (4C) projected to be colder than Saturday (5C). I think general narrative has been established but details subject to change

I think everyone in this forum is cursed - no one with any decent snow cover after all the hours put in here on netweather.

Thanks for the information - i agree with your conclusions.

Blue mentioned the jet stream charts earlier so. Normally when it is posted there is either one or two main arms around the globe. How rare (or not) is the current pattern and what has caused it? TIA

Thanks for the update. It's a pity the ensembles & clusters are not released at the same time as the operational model, as all being available together would provide a more rounded picture of probable ways forward (like your post above). Many people view the Operational only and make judgements on it alone and do not see the later released clusters / ensembles. I know the hardcore do view all the data, but many others like me do not. It would maybe help moderate some of the wild mood swings in here after each run.

If there is a possibility to extend the cold it would be brilliant, but if it is just related to a breakdown event i would be losing interest.

I think we would be closer to freezing daytime if we had managed to get some snow on the ground. Central belt of Scotland has an amber warning until 11pm tonight after getting heavy falls overnight. East Ulster coasts require winds a little south of east to get decent snowfall in sunshine & showers set ups. Very disappointing overnight model runs, though i'll give it until tonight's runs before folding the cards. It looked last night like momentum was moving towards cold. How those models flip / flap so much - so much wasted time following the threads for weeks if we are to get nothi