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blizzard81

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Everything posted by blizzard81

  1. blizzard81
    Cracking! We must also remember that this is from this morning's run which was slightly less favourable for cold in the extended.
  2. blizzard81
    Yep, it is looking slightly less flat by t156.
  3. blizzard81
    We really need a similarly wintry ecm 00z suite in the morning to settle nerves.
  4. blizzard81
    The difference is those charts are for this coming Sunday. I don't think many of the ensembles are showing those sort of charts for Sunday now.
  5. blizzard81
    I do hope the ecm op is struggling Steve. If not, then???
  6. blizzard81
    I can see what you mean but the problem we have is the models are downgrading at an earlier timeframe.
  7. blizzard81
    I love snow more than anyone but I am also a realist who says it as it is. All I am seeing is delay after delay. Most of the proper cold spells are actually brought forward in time, not put back.
  8. blizzard81
    I hope you are right lol.
  9. blizzard81
    Day 10? Are you still viewing the 00z run?.
  10. blizzard81
    Sorry but I couldn't disagree more.
  11. blizzard81
    I would suggest that you ask yourselves just one question today. How confident do you feel today about a significant cold spell starting in about 10 days time compared to how confident you felt 24 to 48 hours ago? Be honest.
  12. blizzard81
    I will be more concerned if that trend continues on the 12z run. Never rated the 06z or it's ensembles. I personally think it should be scrapped altogether along with the 18z and we just have the 00z and 12z. This would help alleviate so much stress.
  13. blizzard81
    What's happened to the wedge and subsequent slider?
  14. blizzard81
    To be fair, every op run no matter which model we are referring to varies run to run. The last few ecm op runs have toyed with heights to our north/north east towards the end of the runs as opposed to heights to our north west.
  15. blizzard81
    And for those just dismissing the ecm op out of hand, do so at their own peril. It very often leads the way when the other models still have their blinkers on.
  16. blizzard81
    There is something flattening the upstream pattern in the 5 to 7 day timeframe this winter. Not sure what it is but it's been happening all winter. So when days 8 to 10 work down to days 5 to 7, things don't look anywhere near as good as they did.
  17. blizzard81
    Much flatter in the Atlantic at day 5 compared to yesterday's run. Not good.
  18. blizzard81
    I do hope we are not saying the same thing come Monday lol.
  19. blizzard81
    GFS 18z ens are great. Look in tandem with the ecm ens which is always a good sign
  20. blizzard81
    Doing that a lot lately. Getting boring now! Yawn
  21. blizzard81
    Then redeems itself. Like everything else at the moment - crazy times!
  22. blizzard81
    Going west based neg nao before the cold spell gets going. Getting silly now!
  23. blizzard81
    Absolutely. Too many getting hung up on the GFS 18z op. Has the pub run EVER verified ? Been model watching for 15 years now and I know what I think of the pub run - not repeatable on here lol Having said that, even the drunkard gets there in the end tonight
  24. blizzard81
    Of course. However, I think this time round with very slack, stagnant conditions in the immediate run up, coupled with deep mid winter timing, most have a chance, even down there
  25. blizzard81
    A little like the ecm op day 10.
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