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Everything posted by blizzard81
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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
blizzard81 replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
blizzard81 replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
However, that does seem to tie in with the latest extended from Exeter. -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
blizzard81 replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A very intruiging battle seems to have commenced. We have some very positive (from a cold perspective) developments in the short to mid term. However, the long term seasonal models are seemingly digging their heels in with their positive nao outlook. I feel a mix of tension and excitement! -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
blizzard81 replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Plus, doesn't it only go to the middle of December? -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
blizzard81 replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just to illustrate how the tpv over north east Canada was over estimated. The ecm day 10 chart from the Friday 12z for 11th November compared to today's day 7 chart for the same date. -
Model Output Discussion - early October
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - early October
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The negative tilting trough is always a promising sign for developments down the line imo. -
Model Output Discussion - early October
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - early October
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - early October
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Liking the way the low stalls in our vicinity with the high getting sucked back into the Atlantic instead of meandering into Iberia. Reminds me of of early Nov 2009 and 1962. -
Three of the most severe winter spells of the last century. Moral of the story? The PV doesn't have to be obliterated to kingdom come.
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Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
We are certainly due a decent December cold spell. I wouldn't be surprised to see one this year. Just basing this on the law of averages, nothing scientific at all. -
Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Does anyone know what phase sun cycle we were in from 1988 to 1990? Were we in solar max or solar min? -
Will we get another 2008-2013 run of colder winters again?
blizzard81 replied to Sunny76's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
That's very interesting. Thank you for that info. I for one am a big believer in solar minimum affecting our winter weather - in a nice cold, snowy way :) -
Model Output Discussion - early October
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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I am throwing in the towel now. It's just not going to happen this winter. Let's hope our fortunes are better next winter.
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I think the yanks have crashed the GFS - salivating over those brutal cold uppers whilst we sweat it out over a possible wet snow puddle
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Good continuity from the GFS. It can be like a dog with a bone though.
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Shame we can't unplug the PV.
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That PV over Canada is like a fridge freezer that is impossible to defrost.
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Incredible frigid cold seeping down into the US. This extreme is happening every winter now, no matter what the enso state is - it's ridiculous. Terrible for us as it always heads into the north Atlantic creating rapid cyclogenesis.
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Model watching is akin to pulling teeth this winter. Ecm only seems to be wrong when forecasting winter nirvana.
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There have been downgrades in the very short term. These seem to have gone under the radar on here. One of the best examples is the updated 72hr fax chart for Saturday. Compare it the 96hr for the same day from yesterday. The new update is much flatter and much less inspiring for cold further down the line.
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Another c**p ecm op that ends with the promise of a relatively mild easterly
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We are numb to it now lol.