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blizzard81

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Everything posted by blizzard81

  1. blizzard81
    On that note, maybe some sort of consensus between ecm and the gfs in the extended.
  2. blizzard81
    There are two ways of looking at it I suppose. The way I look at it is that there are far more colder runs for debilt this morning in the medium term compared to last night's. This means that the ridge into Scandi is more pronounced than previous suites. This is very positive - if that trend continues of course.
  3. blizzard81
    A bit downbeat on here this morning. I feel very uplifted with the ecm to be honest. Better ridging into Scandi in the medium term. Have a look at this morning's ecm ens for debilt and compare them with the 12z ens from last night. The colder runs just post Xmas gaining traction and now the op and control joining that cold batch. A nice trend and at relatively short notice which is always a good sign. It's not all doom and gloom peeps.
  4. blizzard81
    Haven't looked at the fax charts for some time but this is one of those occasions when they might come in good use. Days 3 to 5 attached. Days 3 and 4 look very promising to me but day 5 spoils the party somewhat. The progression looks way too quick to me between days 4 and 5. Just doesn't look right.
  5. blizzard81
    Yep, day 10.
  6. blizzard81
    I know where you are coming from but the more amplification we can get in the 5 to 6 day timeframe over the UK and to our north east, the more chance we will have to achieve something like this at day 10 onwards.
  7. blizzard81
    I don't see that as a problem. The high uncertainty with the track of that Atlantic low at T96 gives us hope.
  8. blizzard81
    Small improvements on the gfs 12z. Better angle of ridging over and to the east of the UK. Ukmo is also an improvement on this morning's nightmare.
  9. blizzard81
    Isn't the Nasa model considered to be cannon fodder?
  10. blizzard81
    You are right. How many times has it teased us over the years? Too many to count. Don't know why we give it the time of day.
  11. blizzard81
    A direct question. Do you trust the GFS 18z and it's suite? The intruiging thing about this situation is that the crucial changes are in the 5 day timeframe. Does this add credence I wonder?
  12. blizzard81
    I totally agree with you there.
  13. blizzard81
    This might end up being a good run. Can we get some retrogression up to Greenland later on as mentioned above by Ali.
  14. blizzard81
    It feels like another chase has slipped through our fingers. Don't think I can bear another snowless December.
  15. blizzard81
    Greece and the balkans getting the spoils - again.
  16. blizzard81
    Well, the ecm certainly got it's thongs on tonight
  17. blizzard81
    Classic late 70's set up. North East US gets brutal cold but we also get rich pickings too.
  18. blizzard81
    Gfs 18z run quite consistent with last night's run.
  19. blizzard81
    This is what happened after Christmas in 1913 - The last grand solar minimum year closest to this year's. Just putting it out there.
  20. blizzard81
    I would certainly bank this run for the festive week.
  21. blizzard81
    Not surprised by that when you look at the ecm debilt ext ens. You can see a clear split between cold solutions and milder solutions from day 11 onwards. This clear split will mix out any mean/anomaly charts for that period. The next 2 to 3 days will resolve whether the cold solutions gain favour or the mild ones do.
  22. blizzard81
    Is there a bit of reverse psychology in that post?
  23. blizzard81
    Those lovely orange colours to our north west on those clusters are a thing of beauty.
  24. blizzard81
    Do you mean the 12z?
  25. blizzard81
    I hope they cease to indicate this very soon.
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