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blizzard81

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    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The models are struggling with timing and the southwards extent of the cold. This situation is always difficult for the models. How fast the atlantic low traverses the atlantic and it's exact track will be very important. This all happening as we get a cold surge heading our way. The models struggled big style in the same sort of scenario in the run up to the mid Jan cold spell. So it stands to reason they will struggle again. 

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    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

     Kasim Awan I see things differently. The cold week 2 weeks ago was modelled very similarly to this potential upcoming cold spell. The models were very undecided as to whether the cold push from the north would make it down across the country. At many stages it only looked like northern Scotland would go cold. Lots of toing and froing on the exact extent of the southward projection of cold from model run to model run. Those in the south were especially (and understandably) angst ridden about it. They were worried it wouldn't be cold enough for that azores low incoming to give that much needed snow fix. What happened in the end? The cold flooded down with ease - which ended any hopes of that azores low delivering as it was kept well south. This is what I expect this time round too - a classic repeating pattern. The cold will sweep in due south/south westwards. However with one important difference - heights lowering much more to our south. Not the bowling ball azores low type though - more disrupted. The other potentially important difference will be the all important wedge cutting down through Iceland. This is something we sadly lacked during the mid January cold snap. This feature will be crucial and it's just about getting into the mid range of all outputs now. 

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    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    @feb1991blizzard the problem with the Exeter 30 dayer, mjo or whatever lol is that they are out of date when the next set of runs come out. I go on the very latest runs (not the pub run though, nor the gfs 06z lol). The 12z and 00z runs are the ones to follow. The latest runs, which happen to be the 12z runs, are an upgrade in many respects. Let's now see if the 00z runs can carry on in the same vain. If so, expect that Exeter update to upgrade very soon. 

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    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Plenty of despondency this evening 

    I actually think this ties in with the best set of eps in the 12/15 day period that we’ve seen for some time 

    There are also some ops and control runs which look to have a very mashed tpv in fi 

    the darkest of the night is just before the dawn …….  I think 

    'Test' I think I've now cracked it (how to incorporate what you are replying to) on my 8 year old android lol. Much more faffy though. I prefer simple and easy. 

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