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blizzard81

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Posts posted by blizzard81

    Model banter and emotions

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

     sundog I think that might be a blessed relief for most of us lol. This season has been the most tortuous in the search for cold and snow since I started viewing the models 20 years ago. I think the fact that there has been prolonged brutal cold over Scandi that has refused to move our way has exacerbated the frustration. 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by blizzard81

     Don Yet again the last carrot dangled by the pub run - and that's just for the north lol. That arctic high let us down yet again. It didn't ridge down enough to create the Icelandic wedge. The wedge that was absolutely crucial for a sustained cold spell. It would have led to the relentless atlantic onslaught being diverted on a much more southerly track, thus heights lowering considerably over Iberia and southern Europe as a whole. Instead we have a half baked solution again. This leads to the atlantic ridge heading towards us, instead of Greenland. Hence the Exeter update mentioning high pressure over the UK. It's another big let down I feel. Even the EC46 has weakened that signal significantly over the last 24 hours. I personally think it's game up for this winter. March is too late, even up here. I've no interest in slushy mess and puddles. 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, LRD said:

     Harsh Climate Got to politely disagree - a brief 3-day dip below average (IMBY) and then a split. Goes back to what I was saying before in that we've been so starved of winter weather this last decade that we think mediocre output/actual conditions is/are now good

    That March spell last year was a classic case in point. 3 days of slush and wet snow is now considered good. I'm not invested in winter weather any more but, even though I'm not, I still find that a little bit sad and depressing

    I agree. The winter bar is so much lower these days. I get why people do it - It's a coping mechanism. 

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    It all looks very wishy washy to me. Lame and limp. There's been no appetite from the models today to home in on a semi-decent cold spell, let alone a decent one. All very underwhelming in my eyes. Too much energy in the atlantic and systems not tracking southerly enough. That's the biggest problem here. Also, remember a couple of days ago when quite a few of the model runs were gunning for that all important Icelandic wedge? It's nowhere to be seen now as we hone into the reliable. This is why we are now seeing the downgrades. Whether some want to admit that or not. 

    • Like 9

    Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Northwestsnow is correct - The update is a clear downgrade but I suspect it could just be a case of clumsily worded on the part of Exeter. Unlike the previous updates, no reference now to the possibility of a clash of the atlantic low with the cold air and hence bringing wintry weather to those lucky enough to be on the boundary. This has disappeared from the update.

    • Like 1
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