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Everything posted by blizzard81
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March? He's either got a crystal ball or he's half mystic Meg and half nostrodamous!
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I of course want ukmo to be correct this morning but more importantly - I do actually think it will be. I haven't been impressed with the performance of the ecm ops these last few weeks. They have been erratic to say the least. I will be closely following the ukmo output over the next couple of days as we close in on the cold spell.
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This post from last night is even more pertinent after the morning runs. Ukmo and gem show the Iberian low heights, unlike the ecm for example. If you want prolongation of the cold (or at least a very small relaxation of the cold) then we need to see an increase in a trend to lower heights over south west Europe. We need to see gfs and ecm move more towards this trend through today. This is what I will be looking for in the models today.
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I always think of 1988 being the start of many an awful winter over the proceeding 30 odd years. So I picked 3 charts from this time in January for 1988,1989 and 1990. Then I looked at the latest charts for this upcoming cold spell. Many to choose from of course but I just went with the latest Icon run. This post is a reminder to everyone of what we have USUALLY had to endure just about every January of the last 30 plus years. The charts we are witnessing and marvelling at over the next week or so are incredibly special. Let's savour it and enjoy what I hope will be multiple spoils for most.
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yep. Also, the trend of today's latest model offerings is a 'straightening' of the northerly in the 5 to 6 day timeframe. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That's interesting about Amy Butler mate. It really was a last minute climbdown on that SSW. If she is scratching her head then we really are in trouble lol. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Anyway.... The cold is here NOW! It actually 'felt' like January outside today. And no, I'm not talking about the January's of the last 25 years. It was like the January's of old. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The sort of run that would test the patience of a saint? -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I notice (I think) nobody mentioned that awful Gfs 12z control run in the relatively early timeframe of 5 to 6 days out. I just hope that run will be a dim and distant memory in 8 hours time and not a harbinger of what is actually to come. Not control runs lol. We've all done it though -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
True. The word 'infancy' springs to mind. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I still don't understand why people give it the time of day. Stick to the 00z & 12z runs. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
From today's trends I can't pick fault with your analysis there. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Pub run tends to be 'different'. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Tomorrow morning's runs will be crucial....... -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I seem to remember something like this happening years ago with an Azores low and I'm sure it coincided with Stuart Rampling's famous 'torpedo' post. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Which contributed to the run being saved from calamity -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just when we thought we were going to be able to start to relax, the azores low decides to speed up it's west to east journey. We really don't want to see that trend pick up in intensity. The models will struggle with that low as well as the arctic profile so there really could be some squeeky bum time in this forum over the next 48 hours or so. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think that Azores low is going to make us coldies sweat for a few more runs yet! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Days 9 and 10 look good - If it's snow you are looking for shortly afterwards. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I really don't see any reason for any dispondency with regards to the model output this morning. Looks chuffing fantastic to me. I'm very excited about the rest of January now.