[Worryingly Wet & Worryingly Sunless]

It's been a truly shocking 5 months. Seemingly none stop rain, wind or both. Heavy rain last night lasting all through today. Awful!

[Changing Attitudes: Climate Change]

 WYorksWeather The arctic looks quite a bit colder in 2018 compared to 76.

[Changing Attitudes: Climate Change]

 Wold Topper The most important thing of all is to question EVERYTHING and don't just swallow everything as gospel. 

[Changing Attitudes: Climate Change]

 Methuselah 1920's and 30's also abysmal for cold winters in the UK. 

 cheeky_monkey Never a truer word said. Wake up people. 

[Changing Attitudes: Climate Change]

 Wold Topper Indeed. Very sinister goings on right now in the world. More people are waking up to it thankfully. 

 cheeky_monkey Absolutely spot on

[Changing Attitudes: Climate Change]

 Wold Topper Well said. God-like complexes, absolutes and arrogance rolled into one. It's like a disease in its own right that has taken over the world unfortunately and not just with regards to this topic. Quite frankly it turns me off. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

A nice, meaningful Scandi high - just too late - again!

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Well I have to admit that my predictions for Feb were spectacularly wrong! It's been a peculiar winter in many ways. One of the wettest up here that I can remember. Absolutely abysmal. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Nothing has changed since my last post on Sunday. Still on course for Feb to have the last laugh this winter. Gfs has been rock solid in this regards. It's now coming into range of the ecm 10 day op. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Baby steps from the pub run. I would expect no more lol. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 suxer Good agreement. Trust me, you don't see that often in the ens suites. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Allseasons-Si ECM agreement. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Uncertainty . Nice one mate. That really made me laugh . Yep, ukmo was only going one way after that mini pressure cell develops at T144 to the north east of Iceland. Great locale for that to take place. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Nice mini upgrade at 6 days from ukmo compared to this morning's for the same time. Nice little high pressure cell sets up just to the north east of Iceland and a much better looking northern hemisphere profile. I'm expecting bigger and more profound upgrades in the morning. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Ali1977 I'm thinking more likely tomorrow morning. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I must say that I've not really trusted model output over the weekends as much as I do on weekdays. This is mainly because I've seen so many flips at relatively short notice on the Monday morning output - mainly for the worse. Every so often though, albeit very rarely, they are flips for the better and I think this is going to be one of those ocassions

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 feb1991blizzard This is why Exeter downgrades are often music to my ears

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Can't believe I'm doing this as I really don't rate this model at all lol. 6 days out though! Every dog has it's day? Plus, mogreps 12z is much improved on its previous runs. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Feel like I'm the last one on the ship right now lol

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The ecm op has had a habit of playing catch up when cold is down the line this winter. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Another thing I'm liking across the models today is that potent atlantic storm seemingly hitting a brick wall, then weakening and if anything, starts to break up or retreat, or both. Ukmo and gfs just as examples. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 chrisnoy Northwest snow and Mcconnor kindly posted the link there. It rolls out from about 1.45pm..... Very slowly lol. No real changes on that latest run. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch Yep. We need to see the models reverting to that build of pressure to our north west at the end of next week. That ship may well have sailed but I've seen full suites back off on something then revert back to showing what they originally showed. We are talking days 5 to 6 here so we do just about have time for favourable backtracks. Of course, 'favourable' backtracks are so rare they are almost extinct lol but you just never know. Even then, if that doesn't transpire, I believe we are still in the game before Feb is out. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 feb1991blizzard Indeed mate. Let's see what the ec 06z control brings up to 144 hours. Due out on meteociel over the next hour or so. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch Oh don't get me wrong Luke - hence the apostrophe's. I certainly don't blame anybody for having enough this winter. It's been draining. I still happen to think February will have a last hurrah though!