Fingers
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Posts posted by Fingers
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Ikon keen on bringing back the cold next weekend!
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2 minutes ago, Nights King said:
Just on the edge of the warning zone but i doubt we shall see much this far west from the showers.
Friday is our time.... if it doesnt rain..
I think we’ll get snow Thursday evening and over night in to Friday before, as you said, it turns to back to rain. It needs to be the perfect system for us, coming in before receding off to continent. High risk could be high fail...
Just want some time for the kids to play in it! 5 days is a long time in the weather world, anything can happen!
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There’s a feature coming in from the North Sea and it seems to be tracking SW we need it track SSW.
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Ok, own up... who turned on the bloody snowshield?! ???
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Can anyone post country wide 850’s for the coldest days in 87, 91, 10 and 13? Interested to see where this is predicted to sit!! It looks completely bonkers!
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4 minutes ago, karyo said:
Fantastic way to start the new season!
Unless solar cycles 25, 26 and 27 stick us in some kind of ice age..... I may never see charts like this again on the south coast! ????
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What a chart that is!! Would that be better for keeping the Azores low further south at t168 and t192 and stop the introduction off the less cold uppers reaching the southwest and prolonging the cold?
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It may well be going back slightly (still in by Monday morning) but the duration of this fantastic potential spell is not being reduced - it’s not 3 days down to 2 days or 5 to 3 days. I’m in an North Easterly now and still have -8 uppers at t276 on the gfs 6z run. The days may be lengthening and the sun gaining strength but it’s better than anything i’ve had for 5 years and it has potential to make that look incredibly tame!
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Slower evolution on ecm at t120 but looks ok.
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Alarm set 15 mins earlier to trawl through models and i’d like to say i’m not disappointed!!!! Deep cold in by t120- t126, it’s coming down and looking world class, the models just keep giving!
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1 minute ago, Raythan said:
I’d love to know how these major cold spells were modeled , I mean was the signal that strong there were only minor ‘wobbles’ , how did 2010 go ? Drama or just solid with upgrades ? From what I read the met seen 2010 far out ?
Just thinking exactly the same. I think 2010 was forecast well in advance by the Met Office etc and smoothly evolved. Let’s hope this is doing the same!!!
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Well, i’m not sure I can keep quiet anymore! Is there some kind of helpline I can ring??!! I’m sat her chuckling to myself, the wife thinks I’m mad! For me, needs to get inside t120 but blimey....... #bestchartsever! ??
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It’s a waiting game. Still swings and roundabouts for probably another 48 hours. Yesterday too far north..... today too far south..... still a long way to go but it is getting closer!
I still think this could be a blinder!
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So..... after seeing only the odd snowflake in the wind and no lying snow for 5 years, on the calculation of 1mm of rain equals 7cm of snow I’m expecting to see 92.4cm of snow on March 1st....... errmm... ok then!! ?? bring it on I say!!
Loving these charts.... IF ONLY!!
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Heights advancing more northerly on this run rather than northeast, better aligned @ 108. The train is inbound! Going to be a good run. Doesn’t look to high to me.
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My take on things from the gfs6z: in a northerly wind from an Atlantic source at t54, a northeastly at t84 and a varying degree of strengthening, cold sourced easterly from t96 through to t192 and beyond potentially!!! We’re chasing Armageddon at days 8-10, the cold from the northern quarter starts in 2 days and it will only get colder!
Once in...... let the fun begin and I hope it truly is a snow fest!!!!
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7 minutes ago, Banbury said:
How good Is that ?
That is a thing of beauty!! What else can you say??? Wouldn’t normally even view day 10 charts but it’s pretty good from t72 and just serenely flows out to t240!! Great stuff, wishing the days away to get it closer! ?
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Icon 00z t157 had the jet more aligned sw barrelling the jet, and the colder uppers,over us. 12z takes it south more and under the uk.
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Dear wife,
Due to the netweather code of conduct I am unable to tell you this directly now as, otherwise, this will go pear shaped and as we haven’t seen lying snow for 5 years... I can’t risk that.
If today’s icon/gfs 00z (17/02/18) charts verified, we could be in for the snowiest spells of weather we have seen in our 40 years living in the south and this could pretty much be a nationwide event. I know that you hate and loathe cold, snowy weather but all I can say is........ get to Tesco’s and stock up on supplies, alcohol and logs as we’re in for the long haul!!!
All things going well, I will show you this message on Tuesday/Wednesday as I may be allowed then!!!
Amazing charts today, not sure the ecm 12z from yesterday could be beaten but it may have been by icon/gfs 00z runs. Great to see the ukmo onboard, need the ecm back on board later today.
Enjoy the ride!
Clem (suffering in silence!)
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Need that low over the Azores to give the high a kick up the weeble!
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Mmnnnn..... silence is deafening, a lot being pinned on this run. Heights slightly lower and cold further east at t66-78.
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Improvement of the high on icon at t165. Better easterly and colder uppers.
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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
If someone wants to see truly great charts, look at the end of the GFS 0z run. - 15 upper air touching east coast! Doesn't get colder than that early March!
That depth of cold even tops 2013.
That truly is cold!! Eagerly await the ecm, definitely better charts so far this morning, hope THE ECM is up for it!
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Gem gets there a very different way and delivers great charts at day 10!
3-1!
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Bank!!!! If only. Verification stats for GFS at day 10, bang on I reckon...100%!!
Trend is good for something a little tasty around the Christmas period. Social distancing snow ball fight and snowmen making!!