Dave Kightley
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Posts posted by Dave Kightley
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ECM from 192 hours hmmm pass like GFS ...
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16 minutes ago, Rayth said:
Yep , but the para is better for Greenland blocking but the HP from rising around Italy blocks the cold feed
All up for grabs in the extended
I would say we need the pattern further south on GFS .. to the point there really isn't a cold spell for south on that run as the battleground of SW and E is to far N.. to the point it could avoid give northern blocking a cold air mass.. such a lemon run for the south really
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UKMO very good... GFS better then 18z not but not great upto 200 with less cold air pumped up from the South west.. zzz so not really a cold spell in South to this point.. UKMO very much better run
GFS turning into a nightmare.. pass on it.. really poor run loses heights... Leave in the south... Won't be seeing a cold spell on that run .
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Will these be cold enough?
UKV very good for Southern England at midnight Boxing Day btw.. new to Netweather extra.. I finally joined
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Mogreps for London a big upgrade with vast going for cold now... been as useful as any model so can’t be that great!
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look at the 1961-1990 average there used to be a time when we got the same amount of snow as others... last 10 years that’s complete not true... endless warm sectors, not the right place... last winter a few flakes here pathetic
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High pressure to the south is going to be the next issue.. want the amplification further west for a start.
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It isn’t very good for upper air temps... most rain everywhere... poor run compared to others
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Need some action in this place in the form of snow
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The Block over Greenland erosion is like a reset to default ... it so strange how it erodes so quick.. it’s a weird set up at is self destructive.. what ever is going on east of it pushes it out of the way to easy.. it is very messy and unfortunate
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Dunno what’s going on by the milder air is winning
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Gfs colder air seems way further south by 24th but I dunno the don’t get the set up so
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If the first low is rubbish then once clears it should be better as gfs suggests do not end of the world if it messes up first time I don’t think
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Mogreps very 50 /50 such big spread for London later next week.. the winner is the beast hopefully
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Mogreps has some terrorists line up about 7 out of the 17 are slightly less cold... 23/24th fingered cross they will calm down again
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Gfs is pants.. looks different to UKMo any away with pest n the atlantic.. it’s like sinking battle ship and bang it’s gone
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Gfs surprising isn’t mild but not cold enough for snow.. probably not full of westerly to nw with low pressure..
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Gfs= rubbish
UKMO.. bad but not as maybe
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10 minutes ago, Yarmy said:
It has an almost legendary status because it is apparently the MetO's premium mid to long range tool, but is (currently) visible to only a select few.
I’ve just read it does it mean.. I were lucky lol.. very few support an easterly but not without very cold options just not many.. safely say 7c in London is below average..towards the end of the period round the 8th is. Bigger spread
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This model any good..? Looks around or just below average.. doesn’t really support an easterly or big snow I don’t think
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ECm has showed an Easterly the cold air moving westwards... it does on this chart for like a day but the low to the west is not behaving that’s it..
Yesterday it had a easterly in by Wednesday just delayed compared to GFS..
every model changing every 6 hours... I would not bank on it yet
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Beautiful day in Exeter , colder next week But I doubt we will see snow on low ground...
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Anyone from Torquay that streamer in the area been going since 6.30
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It is annoying the output but I will always look if see if the high will move further West apart the initial bad position .. it really isn't that far off as long as it stays there if it goes West not South then good!
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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Dave Kightley
Hmm the trough firstly want going SE not NE why it brings slightly less cold air in from the South . To be fair and someone said about a NWly not showing on GFS this.morning does I think hmmm is the truth maybe the first lot collapse then a second is more successful.. in FI