Chris.R

80% snow here

Trying its best again here but not quite making it yet

80% snow here now

1.7°C DP -0.1. Trying to turn here.

It is looking more marginal than expected. I don't know whether the atmosphere profile is different than model or the surface is warmer than expected, or the positive 850s are further north quicker than expected or what but I did expect more snow reports by now.

Heavy sleet recently started.

Garthvader Wigan is great. Better than Crosby

Give it time. Surface is just a bit more marginal than expected yesterday evening

WRF still the same

Had Worse Yep

Right bedtime. Up at 6 tomorrow to watch my forecast go spectacularly wrong.

Sorry I was on the phone . Isle of Man Snow from 09:00 ice pellets/snow mix from 18:00 Ice pellets/rain mix from 00:00 Friday Rain from 03:00 8–12 cm of snow possible over high ground. You may struggle at low levels as surface temperatures are very marginal. Freezing rain risk from late evening on mountains.

RabbitEars ok give me a minute

Had Worse yeah Wallgate Chippy is really nice. Massive menu as well.

Nice Pizza, no kebab this time.

Cheshire south/mid 07:00 - Snow start 11:00 - Transition - snow>ice pellets snow when heavy. 14:00 - becoming - ice pellets/rain/snow mix. ice pellets when light - rain when moderate - snow when very heavy. 15:00 - precip end. (Light ice pellets at end). 2-4 cm accumulated snow - some melt late afternoon. Wirral South/Halton 07:00 - Snow start - (possibly light rain initially. Latest data suggests slightly dodgy surface temps at front onset. Experience suggests this may not be a problem on the day with SE wind. 12:00 - transition - snow > snow/ice pellet mix snow when heavy. 15:00 - becoming - ice pellet/rain mix rain when heavy. 17:00 - precip end (light ice pellets at end) 3-6 cm accumulated snow. Wirral North/Liverpool. 07:30 - Snow start - (possibly light rain initially. (See above). 12:00 - transition - snow > snow/ice pellet mix snow when heavy. 16:00 - becoming - ice pellet/rain mix rain when heavy. 18:00 - precip end (light ice pellets at end) 3-5 cm accumulated snow. West Lancashire south of Preston/rest of Merseyside. 07:30 - Snow start - (possibly light rain initially. below 100 m. (see above). 13:00 - transition - snow > snow/ice pellet mix snow when heavy. 17:00 - becoming - ice pellet/rain mix rain when heavy. 18:00 - precip end (light ice pellets at end) 3-7 cm accumulated snow. Gtr Manchester South 08:00 - Snow start - (possibly light rain initially. below 100 m. (see above). 13:00 - transition - snow > snow/ice pellet mix snow when heavy. 17:00 - becoming - ice pellet/rain mix rain when heavy. 18:00 - precip end (light ice pellets at end) 2-7 cm accumulated snow. Limited accumulation east and south-east of Salford Gtr Manchester West/Central 08:30 - Snow start - (possibly light rain initially. below 100 m. (see above). 13:00 - transition - snow > snow/ice pellet mix snow when heavy. 18:00 - becoming - ice pellet/rain mix rain when heavy. 19:00 - precip end in the south. (light ice pellets at end) 2-6 cm accumulated snow. Limited accumulation in City centre Gtr Manchester East/peaks 08:00 - Snow start 15:00 - transition - snow > snow/ice pellet mix snow when heavy. Freezing rain possible above 300 m 17:00 - becoming - ice pellet/rain mix rain when heavy. Freezing rain possible above 250 m 18:00 - transition - ice pellets/rain mix > rain. 3-7 cm accumulated snow on low ground. 8-15 cm accumulated snow on high ground. Gtr Manchester North 08:00 - Snow start - (possibly light rain initially. below 100 m. (see above). 15:00 - transition - snow > snow/ice pellet mix snow when heavy. 18:00 - becoming - ice pellet/rain mix rain when heavy. 19:00 - precip end in the south. (light ice pellets at end) Precip continuing in the north and on high ground with a transition to all rain by 01:00. 21:00 - Precip resuming in the south with ice pellets/rain mix soon transitioning to all rain. 3-8 cm accumulated snow. greater in the north. East Lancashire 08:00 - Snow start 18:00 - transition - snow > snow/ice pellet mix snow when heavy. Freezing rain possible above 250 m 19:00 - becoming - ice pellet/rain mix rain when heavy. Freezing rain possible above 200 m 03:00 - transition - ice pellets/rain mix > rain. 4-7 cm accumulated snow on low ground. 6-15 cm accumulated snow on high ground. North Lancashire/Fylde 08:00 - Snow start - (possibly light rain initially. (See above). 17:00 - transition - snow > snow/ice pellet mix snow when heavy. Freezing rain possible above 250 m 19:00 - becoming - ice pellet/rain mix rain when heavy. Freezing rain possible above 200 m 23:00 - transition - ice pellets/rain mix > rain. 2-4 cm accumulated snow on low ground. 5-9 cm accumulated snow on high ground. Cumbria South 08:00 - Snow start 23:00 - transition - snow > snow/ice pellet mix snow when heavy. Freezing rain possible above 250 m 02:00 - becoming - ice pellet/rain mix rain when heavy. Freezing rain possible above 200 m 04:00 - transition - ice pellets/rain mix > rain. 2-7 cm accumulated snow on low ground. 4-10 cm accumulated snow on high ground. Cumbria North Little precipitation, but would be all snow until 03:00 Friday.

Sorry all I'm only just having tea

12Z data is worse, will have to redo forecast a bit.

Weather-history that ties in nice with what I'm writing

The Northern Ramper you'll be in my East gtr Manchester area I tried to do forecasts for specific locations but it got too long so decided to stick to larger areas Will probably be another hour, tea first and have to look at the new data.

Oh dear just reading the last few pages a lot of pessimism in here. waiting for my 12Z data, I might have to redo my forecast.

I'm typing up a forecast/prediction for tomorrow. It's probably a bit too long and over complicated and it's more of a fun storm Christoph type thing (I'm not a professional like Kasim) but hopefully it will be at least a bit useful or you can all laugh at me when it's way off the mark lol.

russwirral that sounds about right. Maybe 7 – 8 hours then dry for a bit and then snow/ice pellets/rain mix in the evening. Will try and do a prediction for different locations later after the 12s

Just seen the warnings. I agree with the text of the amber warning. Think the yellow one is Conservative. I would expand the amber region NE but keep the text the same.

Day 10 8th March event was amazing in Crosby. Got 8 cm, more than beast from the east. Classic evaporative cooling event... Started as rain... transitioned to heavy snow. Nobody was expecting much beforehand, I was optimistic though.