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Everything posted by Kentish Snowman in Yorks
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Moans, ramps and banter
Kentish Snowman in Yorks replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
And what if said raging jet passes to the South of the UK? Possible multiple snow opportunities? -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Kentish Snowman in Yorks replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This pub run doesn't see positive uppers getting any further north than around a line from Manchester to Hull before diving South again. Better than the 12z and again highlights the risk of battleground snow. I still think the cold will stay much further South than what the GFS is showing regardless. Interesting times -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Kentish Snowman in Yorks replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
UKMO with a powerhouse Northerly straight into France no messing. Bosh!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentish Snowman in Yorks replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I would be interested to hear the thoughts of @Cheshire Freeze today as I know he has been bullish about our cold prospects over Christmas and particularly into the new year period? Charts seem at odds with his expectations resulting from the background drivers especially the Iberia / Euro heights? -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentish Snowman in Yorks replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don't know which output you are referring to when talking about the ECM as the difference between last night's run and this morning's is night and day? Last night's run looked decent with a Greenland wedge if you're of a cold persuasion and this morning's is well....the less said the better! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentish Snowman in Yorks replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I thought low heights / thicknesses were conducive to polar low formation? Looks like a turbulent 'high impact' spell of weather coming up over Christmas though regardless! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentish Snowman in Yorks replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No expert but would the low thicknesses on that chart not make conditions more favourable for snow? -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentish Snowman in Yorks replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Agreed. With the potential proper breakdown of cold still some 120 hours away I don't think we have seen the end of the drama yet. ECM to pull out a corker the pub run follows up and then we will be bought back down to earth on the morning runs you watch! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentish Snowman in Yorks replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yeah but is it right? The actual weather might have other ideas? Intriguing output to keep us on the edge of our seats at least. Fully expecting another swing back to extended cold on this afternoons runs as I just cannot see that cold over Scandi being shifted so easily... -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentish Snowman in Yorks replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Atlantic hits the -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentish Snowman in Yorks replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wow that ECM! Almost the Easterly that a certain poster from Crewe has been touting for a while. Fair play if it comes off! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentish Snowman in Yorks replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The milder breakdown seems to have been at Day 5 for like three days now?! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentish Snowman in Yorks replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Tamara's high impact weather coming to fruition on this run? It looks like this soap opera is going to run and run!