NO LONGER POSTING

Lovely summers breeze making it feel more manageable of this keeps up then we certainly won't be the hottest place today in my location

Crazy to think we were looking at washout weekend again and now it looks as though we miss most of the rain again Plus temperatures rising again next week 25-26c and 30c again by Friday. HELLO SUMMER!

It does, however global weather drivers are changing. For instances GFS in winter almost always wants to default to a westerly pattern. But longer term if you have drier soil drier air mass less ozone layer etc etc surely the models will eventually need tweaking to allow for this extreme changes. I guess though if the input data is thr same and based of real time then there is no real need. Not unless the gulf stream shuts of or something mega like that! Lol

After the washout charts that are now gone for the second weekend in a row I think anything like this needs a massive pinch of salt right now. My other thought separate to this was do models factor in climate change? When we have hot spells now, 90% of the time models underestimate the scale of heat and how quickly it subsides.

Well heat fans will be happy with the GFS 00Z interestingly its completely dropped the washout weekend. It picked up on it yesterday lunch time and since has been running with the idea that Sunday is cooler 21-23c but the heat comes back again next week. Well above average. Going to try and contact the maker of my weather station today as it wasn't cheap and I've only had it 2 years, for it to be playing up is not good!

Saying 32c now which is definitely wrong not sure why... I've tried resetting it still saying the same

Seems to low.. check live pressure charts around 1020 at the moment Temperature seems to high, stations around me 28c 26c Not sure why could be sensor is playing up

Cloud has rolled in a bit here need to confirm with other local stations and see what met office say but first 30c of the year???

27.8c here and rising fast.. Hottest part of day here is around 5pm as the heat begins to leave the ground but sun is also up. I think the last record that Cambridge beat of 36.6c at Heathrow was recorded around 5pm which is always when I recored my highest temp about 5 miles away

27.5c looks the max yesterday I think that makes it the hottest so far this year.. but that won't last long. That's 4c above forecasted temp for yesterday

25.8c here now...

Losts of posts quoting temperature charts.. Here is another comparison .. I'm down for a max temperature of 23c at 3pm today.. let's see how far out that is! Current reading from weather station @ 11am

Was 25c here yesterday evening 27c inside my garden office... certainly not like the weather you seemed to have experienced yesterday! Can't wait for the heat! Bring it on! Of to ibiza in 4 weeks time CANT WAIT!!

Who was it that said you can't have a warm/hot easterly?

So if you take that at face value... yesterday we were predicted across the board in my location (just west of Heathrow) at 5pm yesterday 20c The actual temperature was 24.6c and at 5:34 it managed to get to 25.1c. I was confused so my brother checked all local weather stations to us... all reading the same. The urban heat island effect of Heathrow this time of year is phenomenal, that mass of concrete adds 3-4c to formatted temperatures

Not sure if my weather station is wrong but once again the Heathrow urban heat island strikes... Current outdoor temp 24c Forecast temp 20c 4c higher! Checked local stations to me all the same..

I think this year, ICON has become my back track model. Always been playing catch up in the short term. arome has performed amazingly well in the short term re thunderstorms and showers.. Anyone got the stats on the short term models?

38c is a bit extreme but not out of the realms of impossible. And I see from this morning the usual push back of any break down and that spinning low that all the doomers were banking on... gone If we go above 36.7c that would beat the highest I have ever experienced here at Heathrow and that was unbearable

Inclined to stay away from MOD thread.. doomers out in full force writing summer of after the potential hot spell. Always the same 3 or 4 guys... Same ones that said washout Jubilee (didn't happen) Same ones that said washout this week (Didn't happen) Same ones that said we wouldn't get above 20c for the next 2 weeks (Been above 20c every day this week currently 24c here at Costa del Heathrow) Do you reckon they ever get bored of being wrong? @TomSE12 your posts always are a good read for many of us here and we are blessed to have a poster like yourself in our regional thread. #fthehaters

That low spinning round the UK like that on the GFS won't happen like that can almost gaurntee the 06z will be different. GFS has a habit of doing that seen it so many times.. usually what happens is the warm spells get longer as the breakdown gets pushed back as the models try work it out. This assumes that the warm spell even happens. I say warm spell, above average spell as we have been bang on average here for the last 8 weeks weather wise Edit: to add we only have to look at this week as an example where by we were due a washout weekend didn't happen here and a very wet week didn't happen here as low pressure was forecast to barrel in of the Atalantic but that never materialised

GFS has a tendency to over egg temperatures a bit but the 06z running out now has 27c at midnight next Friday.. Fans at the ready! All courtesy of the 15c isotherm line making inroads which doesn't actually happen that often.. Text book summer pattern setup with low pressure running North through the Atlantic and dragging very warm air up from Africa. If the Azores high gets displaced and moves over us you could really build in some heat unless it gets put under pressure from the west. Subject to change and these patterns will move East - West all the time as the models work it out. To far East and we miss the high temperatures and end up with more of an Atlantic westerly.. 40c+ for many parts of France on this run... Serious summer heat..

Currently upto 16c here now the smallest amount of brightness will lift temperatures enough to set of showers

The shower this morning gave 16mm of rain in 10 minutes at 4am this morning that is quite impressive although no lightning

Pretty big bust if ask me considering what was forecast by models.. what got me was seeing those cells out west inland exploded with little or no lightning..the trigger was there we just didn't have all the ingredients.. a quick check of the lightning archive also shows how void most of the risk areas were of lightning.. Did get a very intense heavy shower around 4am but that was it You win some loose some!

Just got stuck under one of those showers to west London Very very Localised you can see the edge of the showers... Pouring here mate 0.5 miles down road dry