Mikel Nimbus
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Posts posted by Mikel Nimbus
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Temperatures are shooting up here since the fog rolled in. Was -1.9 until about 2pm now -0.4 and rising. Hope it clears soon and we aren't robbed of an ice day.
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14cm here in Barnet is crazy. The most we've had since the streamer event of Feb 2009 and far far more than I was expecting from this system.
The roads are atrocious and have seen many cars stranded on small country roads out by Potters Bar. Going to be a long night for them.
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Jesus H! The wind coming out the the leading edge of that was insane. Looked like one of those Nuclear bomb videos where everything was going sideways for 5 minutes. Multiple trees down in the area.
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The winds have picked up significantly here in the last 15 minutes. Feels like it did around midday again and seeing more damage occurring. What's going on?
Local building has lost parts of its roof.
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Just been driving through Eastern France and a couple of hours ago got caught out by a monster of a storm with golf ball hail. The car windscreen is going to need replacing. :(
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It was just as thin but a bit lower to the ground before I managed to hit record.
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I caught the last couple of seconds of it on video. It's not great tbh but will try to upload it.
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Very low funnel cloud spotted over North London/South Herts a few minutes ago. It may have reached the ground, but can't be certain. Came down and went up in the space if about 12 seconds.
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What are these very thin bands of PPN? Guessing wind convergence lines?
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2 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:
When if ever are we expecting this system to move westwards?
GFS suggests it wont. It will gradually decay more or less where it is.
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100m asl and we've got rain! Not even sleet but drizzly rain! The sun keeps poking out as well.
This feels like one of the greatest busts.
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The panic on here feels like the evening of 1st Feb 2009. No weather apps back then but worries that "The skies are clear!!! There's nothing forming in the Estuary!!! It's too cold to snow!!!" That turned out to be the most epic snow event I've ever witnessed with a 24 hours Thames Streamer. Relax people.
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What are people's DPs right now? I think my station is broken. -11C and falling here which seems insanely low just after a warm front has passed through.
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I think we've finally reached the end of it. 103.4mm in 3 days is insane for London.
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42.2mm of rain here today! That's a record for my station since it started running in 2003. On top of 35.3mm on Friday.
Still hammering it down. Could be looking at over 100mm from this storm by tomorrow night!
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29 minutes ago, thunderpants said:
The temps have fallen from 33.9c to 24.2c in half an hour.
I wonder if it is the outflow from the storms out west? The temperature has dropped like a stone over the last 10 minutes, almost 3 degrees. Already feels a lot fresher.
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11 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:
I know you shouldn't take the BBC weather graphics as gospel but tomorrow and Thursday showed little in the way of convective activity to the east of London and towards East Anglia...I'll be amazed but not surprised if out towards my location we experience little in the way of lightning and thunder but as we know with such conditions difficult to pinpoint.
GFS this evening is also disappointing. Big downgrade for Thursday. Possibly something tomorrow evening. but if you're north of the Thames it doesn't look great.
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15 minutes ago, elpy said:
Usually lurk but had to post to ask what this cloud formation is all about over Peckham, SE London. Photo taken just after the peak of the heat as the cloud was starting to bubble up and moved overhead from the west.
It was almost like a fold in the sky.
I saw this feature too over North London at about 4pm. Thought I was imagining it as it looked so strange. It was a narrow leading band of cloud, in front of it completely clear skies, behind it lots of higher alto cumulus. Some sort of wind convergence perhaps?
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1 hour ago, Mesoscale said:
Does anyone want to explain to me why we get such high temperatures for nothing to happen and yet in the north they get storms, seems to happen a lot? 2012 was a great example? I don't want to give up yet but I cannot see any instability, still looks like the cap is firmly inplace?
Often the way. We suffer the sweltering conditions and the northerners grab all the action.
They are closer to the centre of the low over Iceland than us down here so their cap is weaker along the trough?
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That thing has exploded on the radar. Very impressive.
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14 minutes ago, Dbarb said:
My guess is the wind direction has different effects on perceived wind speed, seems stronger to me aswell but I know it's not.
True and maybe also actual wind speed? e.g. a certain location might be more sheltered from westerlies but exposed to southerlies? Wind speeds are higher on my anemometer this evening than for Storm Ciara.
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5 hours ago, Oaks said:
Dunno if its just me or what but this feels stronger than last weekend.
Wasn't expecting this but yes, the winds are on a different level from last weekend and seem far more sustained than gusty. There's also already more damage. Just came back home and there are whole fences blowing across the roads.
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Live landings at LHR with expert commentary.
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3 minutes ago, Surrey said:
Are these people mad?
Bognor Regis Webcam - Official Live webcam of Bognor Regis Beach
WWW.BOGNORREGISBEACH.CO.UKBognor Regis beach webcam from the Pier at Bognor Regis, West Sussex UK. Live HD streaming beach webcam view of East Beach looking towards Butlins, Worthing and Brighton.Flipping hell! That child was extremely lucky not to be swept out just then.
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Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
10hPA is a little to high up to have much of an impact on the Tropospheric Polar Vortex. With Sudden Strat Warmings, they tend to start at the top and then propogate downwards through the atmosphere. Once it reaches 70hpa and above then you start seeing interactions of the warming with surface conditions. So don't worry too much about its location at the moment, there's plenty of scope for that to change over the coming weeks.