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A Winter's Tale

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Posts posted by A Winter's Tale


  1. A nice start with a dusting. Hopefully a lot more to come in the coming days - I'm hoping for more than 5 inches but expecting 6cm. 

    It's great to see the thread busy again with the prospect of the best snow since 2010 in many areas. It's going to be interesting to see what the radar will show in the next couple of days and how much snow we get out of it. If this comes anywhere near 2010 then a memorable winter will become an epic one. For some, the snow will be more than epic - many eastern areas will see more than 15cm and some will get more than 30cm. Regardless of how much snow we get, we are on the cusp of the best late February snow since 2001 and 2006 for March with the coldest uppers for decades providing the best charts and the most impressive second-half of winter cold spell in my lifetime.

    It's going to be a fun 48hrs+ and hopefully loads of snow - looking forward to everyone's snow reports and pictures.


  2. As expected the models are showing different solutions for the cold spell, with some shifts south and north and the uppers not as cold as previous runs (for parts of England at least). The charts are still impressive with a very cold easterly and most solutions look pretty decent for snow chances. Eastern areas are looking good for snow in most scenarios being modelled, it's just a question of how much snow will fall and how far inland. At the moment I think even my chances of seeing some snow are quite good although this could change depending on whether the set up is conducive enough for convective snow showers. Some charts have shown the potential for frontal snowfall coming into play, so there could be more oppurtunities for snow if the easterly doesn't deliver. A prolonged cold spell isn't looking likely at the moment but it's too early to be thinking about the breakdown with cold set to arrive next week and hopefully plenty of snow will follow. There's the potential for further upgrades with some recent runs showing very cold upper air in Scandinavia with uppers close to -20C not far away from the Shetland Islands, which is extraordinary for the end of winter.


  3. 11 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

    The low tomorrow night is looking slightly too far south to be very useful for many of us although a small jump north brings some of us into the firing line. It's close:

    Screenshot_20180117-000221.thumb.jpg.1a0c219be043b5a6b73676e2e635db59.jpg20180117_000322.thumb.png.25a8aae633b5f2792f0e1818d01283cb.png

    After today's snow it would have been fantastic to have a frontal snowfall deliver at least another couple of inches to the total. At least we don't have to worry about the mild sector and there are other opportunities for snow during the rest of the week - Sunday could see snow on leading edge of the front. 


  4. I've been following this polar westerly since it first appeared in the models but only now I'm starting to feel quite excited. The charts have shown a lot of potential for a while and despite the complications of Thursday's low, the models have been quite consistent. Polar westerlies have delivered some memorable snow falls, quite recently in January 2015 with with falls of 5cm and 7cm, though generally they tend to be hit or miss. This looks to be particulary potent and quite prolonged -Met Office have snow symbols from this evening into the early hours of Wednesday and loads of heavy snow symbols aswell. I'm hopeful of at least a healthy covering of up to a couple of inches but given the potential in this set-up I'd be delighted with more than 8cm which would be the best since 2010. The low during Wednesday night is very interesting and one to keep an eye on - if it doesn't track to far north then many of could see another hefty snowfall.


  5. Precipitation turned wintry for a time in the last shower - much earlier than expected. Really changeable conditions today now a sunny winter's afternoon after a dark morning. Not expecting much in terms of snow showers in this area but it's nice have some proper December cold after recent years. A really cold airmass over us for the next couple of days and oppurtunities for some snow as cold weather persists into next week and possibly beyond. Nothing exceptional but certainly much more interesting than recent years. 

    The last time there was any measurable lying snow here in December was in 2012. The covering of snow at the end of last month and the beginning of last November are the only occasions snow has settled here before mid January since 2013. It's always nice to have some snow before (or after) the meteorological winter and to have a covering is a bonus if nothing exceptional - although the hefty snowfall to accompany it was impressive. The last two November's have been quite similar with a quiet atlantic and a fair bit of frost and some snow and potential for blocking in the models. The models in the last few weeks have been fascinating to watch. The outlook has varied between mid atlantic high and northerly topplers, to full on blocking and deep cold, to an amplified pattern and frequent cold incursions with the jet tracking south to heights over Europe and mild SWlys. The hemispheric set up has been intriguing aswell and how it evolves over the next couple of weeks will as we head towards the festive period (how the PV over Canada behaves will be of interest).

     

     

     

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