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Posts posted by A Winter's Tale
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19 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
What impressive cold for March!
Now -11.4C
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No record at Altnaharra - the maximum was -2.4C - but it’s already -9.7C there so potentially a very cold night to come.
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Yet to be confirmed but it appears the official Met Office station at Altnaharra has recorded a daily maximum of just -5.1C. The record lowest daily maximum for March is -4.7C recorded during the best from the east in 2018 in Wales.
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It appears that the official Met Office weather station at Altnaharra has recorded a maximum of just -5.1C. If confirmed that would be a new record low daily maximum temperature for March.
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An absolutely stunning morning. Glasgow airport got down to -9C which is the joint coldest March temperature since 1973. Despite the lack of snow 2022/23 has been one of the more impressive seasons in recent years in terms of low temperatures. -15.2C in Kinbrace is the lowest March temperature since 2010 - and in the years since 2010 there have been a number of winters that failed to record -15C.
Sadly it looks like most of us - certainly the central belt northwards - are going to just miss out on a battleground snowfall....again. There’s the chance things may end further north than expected. There may be a few more opportunities for frontal snowfalls but I’m not holding my breath and certainly not expecting widespread snow cover in excess of 30cm. At this rate I’d be happy just to see some snow and would settle for a brief covering of an inch or two. Anything more than that would be a bonus and if we can’t get a mega snowfall of 30cm+ then a 10cm+ snowfall is rare enough in these parts for me to be very happy. Fingers crossed we are not so unlucky in this weekend and beyond.
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Sadly I think it’s over for the Glasgow area with another southward shift on the 12z. The Edinburgh area might just hang on but can’t afford any more movement south.
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1 hour ago, SW Saltire said:
Be a shame for the central belt. I might even miss out if this continues although I do remember being predicted to miss in 2013 and it made it a little further North than predicted on the day. Typically the models over correct south and then almost come back to a middle ground solution. We shall see, be pretty disappointing if England gets all our snow! This winter has been fairly poor snowfall wise for the southern half of Scotland we deserve some luck!
It’s been a while since frontal snow delivered at least a couple of inches of snow here (Jan 2018). March 2006 was the last major battleground snowfall I’ve experienced. As far as central Scotland is concerned often it seems heavy frontal snow either misses us to the south, or is too marginal and we end up with sleety/rain with heavy snow on the high ground and to the north, or the snow is light and patchy and doesn’t amount to much.
Hopefully this time last different. I’ve just had a look at the GFS ensembles and the uncertainty is remarkable. In some cases the snow ends up to the south of Cumbria, or to the north of the Highland Boundary Fault Line. I’d say most have much of the southern half of Scotland seeing some snow for a time. There’s also uncertainty with the timing.
This winter has been pretty frustrating. The cold spell we had in December doesn’t come along every year but the second half of the winter was as barren as I’ve experienced in terms of snow. So far I’ve recorded 8 days of falling snow (there may have been some more with sleet) and the cold spells in early December and mid January didn’t really help in thatcher regard although there was a decent 8cm fall in December. Last year was pretty dismal although I managed to squeeze a couple of 2 inch snowfalls out of it.
Hopefully the coming days will provide opportunities for most of us to get a decent fall of snow. Having gone nearly two months without snow I’d be happy to just see some snow flakes though I’d love a fall of snow o the magnitude of 2006 and 2018 to make up for the lack of snowfall of January and February. Wherever the snow falls later this week somewhere will likely experience a hefty fall of snow.
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Hopefully we don’t see any further southward shift - history suggests that will continue unfortunately. In any case I think the south eastern corner of Scotland is likely to see quite a lot of snow - how much remains to be seen. At the moment my location is just on the edge - any southward movement and the north side of Glasgow missed out. I expect areas to the south east will do quite well providing we don’t see another shift south. There could be more opportunities for frontal snow afterwards but probably not if the same potential as Thursday/Friday.
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Winter 2022/23 was a strange winter. December was cold and seasonal for once with one of the more notable cold spells of the past 10 years which saw some impressively low temperatures day and night and one decent snowfall in excess of 3 inches. Not many winters can boast the sort of weather we experienced in December. Sadly, in the end December 2022 prevented the winter as a while from being a write off. The last two months, especially the second half of the winter was as poor as I’ve experienced in terms of the lack of wintry weather. Since the New Year I’ve only seen two brief overnight light falls of snow with the last of these occurring in mid January. I’ve never known an entire winter month to be completely snowless.
Once more we are looking at the the return of winter in Spring - as a result of a SSW - as was the case in 2013 and 2018. It’s frustrating we have to wait for the official winter to end to get the Synoptics conducive to cold and snow. A slight covering of snow is more likely to hang around for longer in the crisp winter sunshine than the stronger sunlight of Spring.
Nevertheless winter can still pack a punch in Spring with large snowfalls and low nighttime temperatures. Two of the largest snowfalls I’ve experienced occurred in Mar 2006 and late Feb/early Mar 2018. Having gone such a long time without seeing snow I’d be happy to just see some snow falling from the sky though I’d love to experience a large fall of snow to make up for past couple of months.
I don’t expect the coming period to be as notable as 2018 in terms of severity or 2013 in terms of longevity - it may not even be the most significant period of winter weather thus season - but I expect it may rank alongside 2001, 2006, 2013 and 2018 as a notable late winter/early Spring cold spell. I expect like earlier in the winter the areas exposed to the northerly wind will be in the firing line for snow showers or more organised snow.
Here in the Glasgow area, the cold spells in early Dec and mid Jan were dry and I suspect we’ll struggle to see much in the way of snow from the north. Unlike early in the winter there appears to a greater risk of frontal snowfall. Past experience would suggest that we may be too far north to experience a disruptive frontal snowfall but maybe this time might be different. The longevity of the cold spell is uncertain though there is the chance Scotland will remain on the cold side or cold weather may return after a mild blip.
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The highest snow depth I’ve recorded was 26cm on 1 Mar 2018.
In my experience living just outside Glasgow I would consider:
Less than an inch - minor snowfall
1-2 inches - light snowfall
2-4 inches - moderate snowfall
4-8 inches - significant snowfall
8 inches+ - major snowfall
Since I’ve started recording snow depths in Nov 2010 there have been: 1 snowfall of 20cm+, 3 10cm+ and 17 5cm+.
I looked at the historic snow depth records of some stations around Glasgow since the the 1960s and kept a note of days with a depth of 10cm+. Here are days with a depth of 15cm+ from 1960-2018:
19 Feb 1960 15 Paisley, 15 Springburn
19 Feb 1966 15 Paisley, 18 Springburn
6 Feb 1968 15 Springburn
6 Jan 1970 15 Springburn
21 Jan 1973 25 Springburn
14 Feb 1973 18 Springburn
15 Feb 1973 15 Springburn
19 Jan 1978 15 Paisley
31 Dec 1978 18 Paisley, 24 Springburn
1 Jan 1979 24 Springburn
2 Jan 1979 15 Paisley, 16 Springburn
3 Jan 1979 15 Paisley, 16 Springburn
10 Jan 1979 15 Paisley, 23 Springburn
11 Jan 1979 15 Paisley, 19 Springburn
12 Jan 1979 18 Springburn
13 Jan 1979 18 Springburn
14 Jan 1979 17 Springburn
15 Jan 1979 17 Springburn
22 Mar 1980 15 Abbotsinch
16 Jan 1984 15 Paisley
17 Jan 1984 16 Springburn
18 Jan 1984 18 Springburn
19 Jan 1984 17 Springburn
20 Jan 1984 17 Springburn
21 Jan 1984 17 Springburn
22 Jan 1984 20 Springburn
23 Jan 1984 20 Paisley, 25 Springburn
24 Jan 1984 20 Paisley, 15 Abbotsinch, 32 Springburn
25 Jan 1984 20 Paisley, 25 Springburn
26 Jan 1984 20 Paisley, 15 Abbotsinch, 25 Springburn
27 Jan 1984 20 Paisley, 20 Springburn
28 Jan 1984 18 Springburn
12 Jan 1987 15 Springburn
13 Jan 1987 18 Paisley, 16 Abbotsinch, 26 Springburn
14 Jan 1987 18 Abbotsinch, 26 Springburn
15 Jan 1987 19 Abbotsinch, 19 Springburn
17 Jan 1987 15 Springburn
25 Jan 1990 15 Springburn.
7 Feb 1996 16 Paisley, 18 Abbotsinch
28 Dec 2000 23 Paisley
29 Dec 2000 23 Paisley,
30 Dec 2000 18 Paisley
12 Mar 2006 19 Paisley, 22 Bishopton
7 Dec 2010 15 Paisley
2 Mar 2018 46 Bishopton
3 Mar 2018 39 Bishopton
4 Mar 2018 34 Bishopton
5 Mar 2018 22 Bishopton
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Happy New Year! And some snow to begin 2023 - hopefully more to come this year.
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I’d like to wish everyone a merry Christmas. It appears some have had a technical white Christmas - I couldn’t tell earlier when the front was passing through but the rain looked sleety to me. The outlook for the foreseeable is fairly typical for the time of year with the changeable conditions and perhaps some transient opportunities for snow. Tomorrow will be pretty wintry for much of Scotland though I suspect the high ground and areas north of the central belt will stand the best chance of settling snow.
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Snow has arrived here but I doubt it will add to the cm of snow cover remaining from Friday. Nice to end an interesting couple of weeks of seasonal and at times notably cold winter weather with some snow. Tomorrow will be a shock to the system with much milder weather which won’t be completely unwelcome as far as heating the house and icy streets are concerned.
The Christmas period could be interesting though there’s a lot of uncertainty - the set up reminds me a little of last year so I’d remain cautious for now. It does look likely the festive period will be rather seasonal - if not especially snowy - which would be a fitting end to what has been a December with proper winter weather. While it hasn’t been a classic month for snow potentially Scotland could have a monthly mean temperature below 0C which would be very notable.
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Still snowing heavily - depth around 3 inches. Best snowfall since Feb 2021 and best December snowfall since 6 Dec 2010.
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I was beginning to lose faith in the saying “get the cold in first and the snow will follow”. About 10 days into this cold spell finally there is a covering of snow. It would have been nice had the snow came earlier in the spell like 2009 and 2010 but I’m relieved this cold spell will not go without lying snow. And it has been a notable cold spell as far as temperatures are concerned. Glasgow airport recorded four days with a mean of -4C or lower (equalling Dec 1995) and even earlier tonight it briefly dropped to -9C after three days of -10C minima. I have no idea how much snow we’ll see but given how cold the ground is the snow is having no problem settling.
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An exceptionally cold couple of days in Glasgow. Yesterday saw the lowest maximum and lowest December minimum at Glasgow airport since 2010 with a high of -4C after a low of -10C. It was even colder today with a high of -5C after -11C overnight. Very reminiscent of the coldest days in 2010 with the notable difference being the absence of snow cover which makes the current temperatures more remarkable. The lack of snow has been disappointing and has prevented this spell from being as memorable as others such as 2010 but the low temperatures have made this quite a notable period of winter weather. Perhaps we’ll see some more snow before the end of the current cold spell.
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19 minutes ago, Frozen Britain said:Well done to Ross B for predicting on Thursday that Saturday would be the next best day/chance of snow for the Glasgow area.
Snow this morning - and better than the flakes we got on Thursday.
Still snowing now and lying a bit too and hasn't melted either since it stopped falling out of the sky - goes to show how cold it is out there.
Hopefully that front crossing the country now will pep up a little before it fizzles out and moves south.
OK, anyone want to take a punt on when Glasgow will see snow again after today?
Is there a chance of snow later for Glasgow too once the once approaching now moves away?
That shower has just passed here with the first flakes I’ve seen this winter. I think later today provides the best opportunity for lying snow in this part of Scotland. It’s unclear just how many showers will reach this far west and how intense the precipitation will be. Hopefully we’ll see a good stream of showers through the central belt though I’m concerned about whether we will see a rain/sleet/wet snow mix or proper snow. The main activity for the Glasgow area should be between 6pm and 6am - I have no idea if conditions will be favourable for precipitation to fall as snow by then.
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Well what an interesting start to the winter! The potential in the charts at the moment is as high as I’ve seen on the 10+ years of following the models. There have been a number of occasions during the last decade when promising charts failed to materialise and after the failure of the cold spell last Christmas I will continue to remain cautious until we get to within 72-96hrs.
At the moment I am keeping expectations low and I would be happy if we can have a seasonal December for once with some cold and snow instead of relentless cloud and rain from low pressure systems sweeping off the Atlantic. The last 10 years have been disappointing in terms cold and snow in December with only 2012, 2017 and 2020 resembling something seasonal. Thankfully December 2022 is shaping up to be a proper winter month and it looks likely we are about to enter the most notable period of winter weather in the first half of winter since 2010. It’s a question have notable thus spell could be in terms of severity and longevity.
At the moment it looks like we’ll have a cold spell that lasts at least a week with decent opportunities for snow and low temperatures for a few days from the December 7th. Details concerning potential for snow and low temperatures will become clearer closer to the time. I would more than settle for a Dec 2000 style cold spell with a week of lying snow following a decent dumping accompanied with a few ice days and sub -10c lows.
The charts offer a lot of promise for snow with the potential for organised features to pop up at short notice as well as convective snow showers developing over the mild SSTs, not to mention battleground snowfalls as well. If there’s snow cover with cold air aloft in a slack set up then there could be some very low temperatures.
Regarding longevity it’s often the case once the cold arrives models underestimate the strength of blocking and cold air and the breakdown is pushed back. With the lack of polar vortex on the other side of the Atlantic and pooling of cold air on this side with a decent block in between I wouldn’t be surprised if this cold spells ends up being longer than 10 days. A severe spell of winter weather in terms of depth and longevity can’t be ruled out which would have negative implications concerning the current economic situation. Scotland’s northerly location should mean we stay in colder air longer or potentially experience battleground snowfall should the Atlantic attempt to make a comeback. It will be very interesting to see what the models will have in store over the coming days.
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4 minutes ago, Ross B said:
Just had a rumble of thunder here as the rain clears...
Pretty loud rumble where I am which came as but of a surprise.
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Between 7.20pm and 7.30pm as a heavy shower moved NE the wind very suddenly escalated accompanied by heavy rain. It all lasted around 10-20 seconds or so. The wind also changed direction with the trees blowing east to west. I’ve experienced squalls before but this seemed a bit different. I wonder if it could have been a small tornado, or a microburst.
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I wonder if my house has just been hit by a small tornado. It could have been a squall or a downburst but the wind very quickly increased then decreased and I think the wind might have been spinning. The cloud is moving east but the wind was blowing west.
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Coldest minima recordings season 22-23
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Already down to -14.6C at Altnaharra. -12.7C at Kinbrace. I think there’s a good chance tonight will be the coldest of the winter so far