A Winter's Tale
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Posts posted by A Winter's Tale
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March this year had a mean below 2C and there's a possibility that November could have a sub 3C mean. Since records began this has only happened 5 times.
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A pleasant day and a spectacular wintry sunset with pink/orange/peach/purple cirrus clouds against the blue evening sky. Failed to reach double digits. During the first 10 days, this happened on 9 occasions - since 1973, this has never happened before in November at the airport. It's great to see the first proper, arctic sourced cold spell of the season. This incursion early next week doesn't happen every year in November (and November snow isn't a perennial event for everyone aswell). It would be even more pleasing if we all see some snow during next week. The last time I saw snow here in November was in 2010 - the first accumilations arriving late on the 26th and before that the earliest I had seen lying snow was briefly on the 25th Nov 2005. This spell will sure bring winter excitement into the thread and with a bit of luck it might bring some very early lying snow for some. The cold, fresh air and crisp conditions should make things feel and look very festive aswell as greatly adding to the cool weather we've achieved so far this month.
Thereafter, looking at the conditions presented by the models - some frost, fog and cold, crisp conditions again would make for a fairly traditional, cold November ending with some settled, quiet winter weather without the snow and potency we'd be more likely to experience later in the season. Synoptically, it is 'gripping' again with some very decent and solid signs. However how such factors evolve during the days will create more model drama. This feels familiar, roughly this time last year - without a lot of solid stratospheric support - we witnessed high pressure make progress into interesting areas. There was a small window for 'big-freeze' like synoptics/conditions but instead the model saga went on and the result was a nice, festive, cold start to the winter with high pressure ending up just to our north. At the moment, I'd say things look a lot more promising for a more significant cold/or wintry start to winter than last year there are many hurdles in the way and options on the table. If we don't achieve a proper Greenland high the first time round, then it's likely that the interest in the models will continue with a possibility of further attempts. LS this evening has posted a few charts going back to Nov 2010 when around 5 days before the cold spell really got going, synoptically it looked promising with blocking already in place but it did take time for the conditions to follow.
The GFS 12z looked pretty good with the WAA into Greenland during an earlier stage - fingers crossed for more upgrades and support from other models during future runs. The high looks like moving towards Scandinavia - possibly liking with the Russian high - on some runs. ECM 12z and some other runs offer stunning synoptics with winds coming from the east but with lack of a cold pool over the continent. Such charts would bring unbelievable conditions during the middle of winter. We would need a section of the polar vortex to plunge south into the continent and then we would really be in business. BUS recently posted about 'GOB' and how the ECM 12z at face value doesn't look that great - but looking at the wider picture, any block that sets up around Scandinavia or Iceland could potentially retrograde to Greenland. Anyway, some decent winter conditions for late November is on the way - including some snow - and the winter model-watching madness has well and truly started.
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Coldest day since late March with a maximum of 6C - more like winter than early November. Already 8 days with the temperature failing to reach 10C:
Looking at recent years with single-figure maxima during the first 10 days of November:
2012 - 7
2011 - 2
2010 - 6
2009 - 6
2008 - 5
2007 - 0
2006 - 2
2005 - 0
2004 - 0
2003 - 1
2002 - 3
2001 - 2
2000 - 8
A pretty good start to November this year - making up for the lack of cold conditions earlier in the autumn. A fairly traditional start too with plenty of changeable conditions offering a mix of sunshine, showers, cool, fresh days and clear, crisp nights - which has been enjoyable. Good to hear that there has been enough snow on the Cairngorm mountain for an early start to 2013/2014 skiing season.
Just now it is a really cold, crisp November evening - absolutely clear and calm after some wonderful pale colours earlier in the twilight. Already -2C at the airport so a cold night is on the cards with a subsequent calm, clear, cold but bright start to Remembrance Sunday. Again, daytime temperatures should struggle but increasing cloud cover then rain from a front should see the temperatures rise - followed by a mild Monday with clearer conditions spreading from the NW. Tuesday should see a return to cool, fresh, showery air . I suspect around the 10th-15th, we should see a mixture of frontal, mild, cool, showery and settled conditions with mid-atlantic anti-cyclones moving east - slowly making progress further north - into Europe. We've had a cool start and at the moment there's no indication of any prolonged mild spell on the horizon - instead, there is a continued frequency for cool, changeable spells and there are hints of some potentially more interesting cold spells during a time when we traditionally see the coldest of the November weather. We are a long way from a November 2010 spell (although that possibility isn't a million miles away) but given the current theme across the models, there should be a number of shots at cold spells given the influence of the mid-atlantic high. They could be fleeting, but nevertheless, it should continue the cool theme to our weather and if things materialise nicely then we could be offered the first 'significant' cold spell of the winter that could deliver snow to some parts.
The models show the MAH wanting to move northwards.
The above chart however is an example of how brief cool spells is a likelyhood, BUT, the high pressure makes northward progress a bit to late for our liking as it moves into Europe. We need high pressure on the other side of the atlantic to be placed a little further north and then be pushed upwards. In that scenario, we could end up in a more than meaningful cold and wintry situation. At this stage, the likelyhood is such as spell would be brief but if high pressure could achieve a significant foothold over/or around Greenland then we could really be in the business. Certainly, where we stand now, model watching for what may unfold later this month will be interesting - the impact of the MAH in particular and the nature of resulting conditions.
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I think I've seen a couple of flashes of lightning over Glasgow.
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A very cold night with a low of -3C. A mostly cloudy day with some freezing cold rain. Now with plenty of showers in the area it's very wintry scene with a mix of clear, pale late afternoon sky and some purple/grey shower clouds and brighter colours where the remaining sunlight shines. So far the maximum temperature at the airport is 5C - quite exceptional for 5th November. Hopefully today will be the first of the winter with temperature failing to get higher than 5C. I've just come back from a walk and it is baltic out there. I couldn't see the Campsie hills but I wonder if there's any snow on them.
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The coldest temperature since April 6th with a low of -3C and the first proper crisp, sparkling, frosty morning of the autumn. Another day with the maximum in single figures and more glorious November sunshine and chilly clear blue skies. The sun has now gone below the horizon and the twilight sky has a cold, sharp quality of pale light blue. Now 5C and another cold evening and night to come but a front should arrive from the west during the early hours - snow falling to relatively low levels of 200m. A fairly typical start to November - quite similar to this time last year - but nonetheless it is pleasing to have this after a somewhat extended summer so far this autumn.
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A nice day here with sunshine and showers. Now a chilly, clear evening with the temperature already down to 4C. A cold night to come across many areas with a widespread frost likely.
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First snow of the season reported at Loch Glascarnoch. A driech November day but it was great to have a proper cold-feeling autumn day. Maximum of 7C at the airport was the coldest since the middle of April. It's been a nice fresh, partly clear November evening with the sound of fireworks, glimpses of the starry night sky as patchy, thin, wisps of thin/faint cloud drifts east across the sky.
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A cold, starry night after a changeable, fresh first day of November with a mix of bright and clear spells and showers. Hopefully there'll be another frost to the add the tally for this autumn - probably the first widespread risk of frost this season and maybe in some rural areas, we could see the coldest temperature since the Spring. Tomorrow could also be the first winter-feeling day of the season with a front bringing plenty of rain and suppressing daytime maximum temperatures. The maximum here and across many other areas should fail to reach 10C for the first time since Spring whilst in places such as Braemar we could see some wintry values such as 3C during the height of the day aswell as some notable snowfall on the high ground. So for now, all is good with some good-old chilly November weather. Hopefully we'll accumulate a decent tally of cool late autumn conditions come the end of the month.
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A nice calm, clear, cool final night of October 2013. It was an uneventful October with not a lot to remember it for (other than the storm making *or made by* the news in southern Britain). Not a complete right-off with regards to fresh, cool autumn weather ( 2 air frosts at Glasgow airport) but there was very much less of the chilly conditions that dominated October last year. A mild start (and mild overall) but recently it has been standard late October conditions. And despite the lacking of some cooler October weather, to me the conditions have been more or less close to what we'd all expect for the time of year. Now a shower has arrived to start November off. I've always liked November despite it being famed for lots of rain and wind and lacking extremes in temperatures. But I enjoy the light at this time of year, the colour of the sky and clouds during calmer/clearer periods on Bonfire night and of course the more noticeable chill in the air with the knowledge that winter is coming.
Last November was pretty chilly. This year, for the first half of the month, the atlantic is king in a very unsettled, low-pressure dominated, changeable and zonal outlook. This combined with probably some 'cooler' weather than what we've seen so far this autumn then that should make for a seasonal start to November. As we go through this month the risk of winter weather potential increases - and for us in Scotland, zonal weather can deliver the goods if we're lucky with the potency of polar westerlies. As ever, I suspect we have to be patient to get our first taste of and best bits of winter. We should have our fair share of run-of-the mill cold and snowy spells throughout the winter, however, concerning significant and prolonged winter weather then any likelihood for this is later in the winter if the many key-factors fall in place. But with past-experience and as we all know great things can arise from periods of normal, atlantic-dominated weather (2009 and 2010 rings a bell).
The Scottish 1981-2010 mean temperature for November is 4.3C. I'll say we'll end up with 4.9C this year. As we're now entering the busy period for the forum, how about having a Scottish monthly mean temperature game for kilted members. Post your entry (deadline Bonfire night) and then see how close it gets to the final value.
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I'll go for 7.7C please
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Sky with the sun out (yes sun out) rain pouring down and dark cloud to the east looks stunning. Rainbow soon me thinks
There was a rainbow here about 5 mins ago. Lovely pale light blue sky overhead moving east and beautiful purple/pink colours reflecting off the back edge of the rain cloud to the east. Around an hour ago it was quite wild with heavy, driving rain and some fairly strong gusts of wind.
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A much milder start to October compared to last year thus far but that's all about to change with cold fronts sweeping south and following behind should be the coldest upper air profiles since late May. It will be refreshing to have that autumn chill in the air once again and some of mountains in the Grampian region should see some snow in the showers above 600m. Further west and overnight into Thursday morning there could be a chance of a frost. After that and it's looking fairly settled but I'm sure looking forward to seeing this month unfold with stronger autumnal look and feel to things and hopefully some decent air frost opportunities or maybe a few pleasant shots of some early wintry showers at the end of the month just like last year. By then we should be nicely entering winter mode with the nights continuing to draw in and with November to look forward to with the first month of following winter synoptics. Fingers-crossed things in the NH tick-along nicely in the run-up to winter!
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It was fantastic to have a return to summery weather today with a maximum of 20C. Tomorrow looks like being the same but it could also be the last of the proper summer weather for this year.
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A chilly night here with Glasgow airport recording 4C an hour ago. Down to 3C at Altnaharra so there is a chance of an air frost. Quite a contrast to the warmth in SE England with temperatures still close to 20C after highs up to 30C earlier today. We had our heat yesterday and the day before and tonight we have the return of the autumn chill so it's quite nice to have contrasting but fine autumnal characteristics coupled with some pleasant clear and bright conditions. Lovely!
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Another lovely September's day with fine, light blue skies and some scattered white clouds and high cirrus clouds. An autumnal evening just now with Glasgow airport recording 4C not too long ago - coldest temperature since June 1st. It's good to have that autumn chill back after a pretty decent summer.
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I am in Arisaig. Since I've been up here on Saturday it has been changeable with rain being on and off - mostly cloudy but changeable and mixed skies. There is currently thin, high-level cloud cover but there is some sunshine coming through making for bright conditions. The scenery up here is amazing and it would be even better in clearer conditions. Having said that, I've never seen Glencoe look as atmospheric in the driving rain on Saturday.
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I've noticed that: the sky isn't as light in the late evening; a shorter duration between sunset and dusk; it is certainly darker at 10pm on clear nights, and earlier when it's overcast; the night sky is much darker around midnight. The early mornings don't seem to be as light aswell.
Glasgow for tomorrow; Dawn 0446, Sunrise 0532, Sunset 2113, Dusk 2158 - Dawn and sunset is similar to 1st May, sunset/dusk more like 9th May.
Hottest day (19th July): Dawn 0407, Sunrise 0500, Sunset 2146, Dusk 2239 - this far north, the light lasts longer in the evening which was really enjoyable last month.
This time next month: Dawn 0532, Sunrise 0630, Sunset 2000, Dusk 2038
21st June Glasgow: Dawn 0329, Sunsrise 0431, Sunset 2206, Dusk 2308
21st June London: Dawn 0335, Sunrise 0443, Sunset 2121, Dusk 2209
21st June Lerwick: Dawn 0146, Sunrise 0338, Sunset 2234, Dusk 0026
I really enjoyed the long days during the heatwave and on the clear and bright days in late May and June. The late light was great to make use of the garden until 10pm, and the late sunset and dusk was spectacular with with great views towards Highlands. There's still a fair amount of light to enjoy this month but it is nothing compared to a month or so ago. On the plus-side, it's also nice to see the nights drawing in again.
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16.8C please
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That black sky to the SE is coming right towards us.
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There was a mixture of hazy blue skies/thin cloud not too long ago. A grey/peachy haze just now with bits of lower cloud moving across - fairly dark, dull and humid looking. I've uploaded a gallery of yesterday and today's weather conditions - http://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/album/1365-weather-conditions-26th27th-july-2013/
This was the remains of a storm cloud stretching NErds from Paisley - taken around 6pm yesterday.
It turned out to be a pleasant and clear late evening with an impressive sky to the SE.
Earlier this afternoon the sky was looking quite menacing - I was on the look out for any lightning or funnel clouds.
Almost a funnel cloud
Brighter and more friendly looking skies futher east although there appears to be two funnel-cloud like features in this picture.
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Some pleasant sunshine and blue skies aswell as impressive shower clouds - especially further south and east. I was out playing tennis two hours ago and an impressive storm cell grew as it moved from the SW. A few loud rumbles of thunder and ominous looking skies made us take cover in the clubhouse for a while.
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Plenty of rumbles of thunder, a number of flashes and one bolt of lightning. Quieter now with steady rain.
Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013
in Regional
Posted
What a dramatic 36hrs it has been for the models with dramatic variations from day to day, run to run and model to model. Some of the models are struggling with subtle complications (at quite reliable time frames) and such small details have major implications on evolving synoptics and, inevitably, the mood in the MT. But putting aside the great swings in the output the bottom line is (and has been) for an early cold blast during the first part of the week (and securing 2013 a place along with 2010, 2005, 2001... as Novembers with notable spells of winter weather) and for the rest of the week it looks fairly cold (at least at the surface). High pressure looks likely to end up close to us (the implications on our weather is varied, but generally cold for the time of year). If the models can't handle important details within 120hrs then I would advise against buying exactly what the models do with the synoptics later this week. The door is still open for high pressure to migrate to Greenland but no one can know for sure if or when this happens because of so many factors such as atlantic lows, the strength or positioning of the PV and countless other things. You never know, this week or so could be a precursor to something special but we should be more than pleased at the weather we have infront of us next week and the interest there currently is in the models.
Sub -5C uppers look set to arrive and sink south during Monday with an increasing risk of wintry precipitation to lower levels and it would be great if the snow can visit all of us at some stage during the week. Like every year NAE charts, NMM, radar, Fax charts and lamp posts will be in use during the spell. It will be fascinating to see the sort and nature of features appearing on the fax charts and how good the convection will be. Then, later on Tuesday we have a wee feature moving in off the atlantic and at the moment, it looks like this at least will bring snow on its leading edge to many areas but with a few adjustments this could end up being a fairly widespread and significant snow event.
Let's see what the ECM brings. BRACE YOURSELVES!