A Winter's Tale
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Posts posted by A Winter's Tale
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A light snow shower passed through not too long ago followed by wintry clear blue sky. This week looks like being the most interesting of the winter so far and hopefully at some stage we all end up with our fair share of the white stuff.
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6.1 please
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Just started snowing in last 5 mins.
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Briefly a bit of rain was reported at the airport but nevertheless that is amazingly fifty consecutive days with rain. A quieter day of weather today with some sunny intervals and tomorrow should be dry and cold day. Although we'd like a good dumping of snow before the season ends I think we would all settle for just some dry, cold/frosty or sunny weather. Friday - a few alterations could make for a decent snow event but any low-level snow could be brief but I think the weekend could be more favourable for some heavy snow showers from the west- albeit it's still marginal.
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Today was the 49th consecutive day with rainfall at Glasgow airport! That sums up the winter we are having this year. It really has been a roller coaster with the models but alas the past two days have gone in the wrong direction. There were some favourable details: low pressure in the jet, heights over Scandinavia, low pressure sliding se as well as some decent background signals across the northern hemisphere. The models never really showed a proper blocked and cold scenario and there was still an Atlantic theme (although not classic, raging, mild zonality) but given how traditionally the northern hemispheric set up is different in February in comparison to December there was still far more potential in the following three weeks than what we've had to endure since our last decent cold spell in late November. This hasn't changed as cold spells may still show up as we go through February (even if the vortex is in control with further zonal conditions). But in the past 48 hours low pressure systems being modelled after the weekend have taken a different track from se to ne and other factors are overwhelmingly not looking that great for February - although nothing is the be and end all. The segment of the vortex across the other side of the pond really had been king this winter. This year has been similar to 06/07 and 07/08 in terms of persistent and excessive lack of winter weather and just like exceptionally cold or blocked winters, years like this will come up once in every while although the former is more common. Anyway there is some more seasonal weather on offer this week.
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Some wet snow over an hour ago - other than that it has been a fine and chilly day with wintry sunshine and blue skies.
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Light snow - now larger flakes.
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Lovely sunny winter's day after some snow showers overnight. During the past week or see there was an encouraging trend in the models towards a possible easterly flow but it was always a fragile set-up - the past 36hrs has exhibited that. Although we'll all want a big dumping of snow to make up for the weather in the past 6 weeks, any seasonal weather that resembles winter will do for now. February should at least offer some seasonal weather but I think there might be a cold/wintry theme throughout the month.
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Happy New Year everyone! It was amazing to see the fireworks display at Edinburgh Castle.
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4.1C please
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After a damp and grey start on the journey to Fife clearer light blue sky followed from the SW. A nice afternoon and evening on the hill just south of Freuchie with the wintry evening sky looking south towards Edinburgh during the last sunset of 2013 - some pale grey/purple/blue cloud in certain parts of the sky. Pretty windy and chilly on the hill. Hopefully it'll be clear enough to see the fireworks at Edinburgh castle. I can hardly believe we're about to enter 2014 - pretty much the mid 2010s!
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A pretty wet day here until the afternoon. I had a nice drive around Aberfoyle and Loch Achray in the beautiful Trossachs - some spectacular pale pink tone in the sky, water and land as the front cleared, a nice mix of pale pink and grey/purple cloud aswell as a watery blue coming through the thin cloud. With all the rain recently Loch Achray was reaching right up to the edge of the road.
This has been one of those unsettled, atlantic driven Decembers with any seasonal weather being short-lived. The difference with this year is that it was overall much milder than your typical zonal December. A really mild spell after a coolish start was responsible. Other than that it hasn't been overly mild but the changeable nature of our weather this month has meant that frosts have been hard to come by and warm sectors in low pressure systems results in milder daily maxima. Despite how mild the month has been I've still be able to see snow on at least 5 days which is sort of respectable. This month could have had less in the way of relentless and constant low pressure, fronts, rain and wind and with a little more in the way of some frosty, cooler and settled interludes and to see a bit more of that low December sunshine or clear sky at day and night.
For New Year's Eve and Day I'll be away in Fife but in the New Year I'm hoping to start and complete a review of the Scottish weather during 2013.
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The wind is picking up now and in the heavy rain there was some wet snowflakes mixed.
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Getting stormier with some strong gusts and occasionally flickering lights - heavy, driving rain too. The Christmas Eve storm thankfully didn't turn out to be too serious for many. I hope everyone has a fantastic Christmas and fingers crossed for some snow too.
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A little bit of wet snow here. Other than a few strong gusts it has been nothing more than a bit breezy.
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Nothing notably windy just yet. Just now the ground has a white dusting - sounds like hail in heavier bursts but looks like graupel and lighter spells it looks like light snow.
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A very cloudy and wet day. It has been on the calm side but tomorrow will be a very different story. We record some of the lowest air pressure on record and the synoptics offer the potential for something exceptionally powerful and potent. Today's event further south deserved the coverage it got but I think the potential in the charts for northern areas should be mentioned in the case of another early January 2012 like event - or even worse. I have the feeling that this event despite warnings and forecasts could surprise people. Whatever materialises tomorrow, the fact that we a scenario like this for Christmas Eve of all days is remarkable. This will at the very least disrupt travelling and shopping plans but I'm also expecting plenty of power cuts. This sort of weather is fascinating but at the same time unnerving to follow. Whatever you all have planned for Christmas, I hope you all enjoy festivities safely.
On top of the winds, precipitation could be wintry, certainly for the high ground and some low lying areas north of the central belt, and it would be nice to see some snow for Christmas Eve. As for Christmas Day it is looking much quieter. Not that great chance for an official white Christmas - Aberdeen does stand the best chance - with less precipitation and the uppers could be more favourable.
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Quite a few flashes of lightning again.
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Another really big flash over Glasgow.
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I think I've just seen a flash of lightning to the sky south of Glasgow.
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Currently heavy wet snow. 4th day with snow so far this month.
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The wind has picked up with strong gusts coupled with heavy rain. Certainly more activity in the weather during the next 24hrs and more variability and variety upto and beyond Christmas with a more mobile and atlantic dominated pattern.
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The final frame of the ECM 12z tonight.
It's not brilliant but it's a far better looking chart than most on offer!
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Back in Fife now, currently -0.2/-3.3 so plenty of wiggle room temperature wise. Going to be 6am before the milder 950s push in but more like 3am for those Glasgow westwards. Precipitation on the radar looks light but with slightly heavier pulses and it is pretty far east already (if the radar's accurate) so I'd be expecting to see some lying snow here if and when it does reach us - maybe a nanometre or two!
Equally, I'm not regretting booking at break to Prague just before Christmas - this may be the first genuine 'Bartlett' setup during my time on the forum if it comes off. This is also why this particular spell of cold is worth making the most of - with the current charts as they are we're at least 8, and perhaps even more like 15+, days away from seeing a significant risk of lowland snowfall again:
This is for Aberdeenshire, which gives you an idea of just how poor the outlook is at present - no runs below -5C after tomorrow until the 16th:
Some longer term positives are that Wave 2 activity is forecast to propagate reasonably well into FI (D8-D9) which could assist amplification upstream (although that doesn't necessarily mean cold but maybe more of a 'battleground' setup or a UK high type setup):
Some signs too that the MJO may manage to make progression through the poor phases and back round to the 6-7-8-1 phases that we like. However, the MJO forecast have been lacking skill so far to say the least so I don't have much confidence, but hopefully the high amplitude will remain and give us a chance of getting another cold snap at least before month's end:
Mid December to mid January during the past two winters included prolonged mild weather. Thank god that this cold spell has ensured this December with some wintry weather to speak of but the next couple of weeks look really dire. The only hope we have is that the high could bring us some surface cold, and perhaps in future runs the position/duration of the high might change. Another positive thing is that most patterns don't last much longer than 2 weeks, so there is a glimmer of hope for something more festive around Christmas and we've still got two more months of winter to make up for a potentially very mild December.
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Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 27/01/14
in Regional
Posted
A recent shower brought a brief covering before melting. Now heavy snow but not lying on wet ground.