Whether Idle

SE Kent folk alert.... The situation around 6am though is fascinating as the little lp that forms on the front runs through the Dover Straits. This means the wind will go SE for about an hour or 2 around 7am and this could produce a sneaky window for snow fall at somewhere like Whitfield (120m asl) , not IMBY (where I expect nothing) , before the wind switches almost immediately to a NWly and the low centre tracks eastwards and precip dies quickly. Fascinating...

it was sleety rain, had the halogen security light on. Air temp around 4.7c

Hi. Are you expecting anything here? I think we are too far east. As luck would have it though I'm walking in the west Chilterns near Hemel Hempstead with a mate tomorrow so I'm hoping for something there!

Nick, the lesser models are going for Atlantic dominance at 120 (take a look at CMA, Brazilian) some ECM ens members also follow what I think is a false trail. The UKMO version of events is maybe most wished for, but it is looking isolated, if it proves correct it would further enhance a growing reputation. We shall see.

Thanks Nick. Plenty of varying options in there with a few offering an early Atlantic return. Many blocked. Most cold, and dry.

Anyone have access to the 12z ECM ens and/or 120 postage stamps and able to post them?

Does anyone have a link to the ECM120 postage stamps?

Madrid has a cold winter climate and high altitude. It has colder Januaries on average than London.

The prospect of further light and isolated soft hail showers for the next 5 or so hours as the pool of sub -10 uppers moves across the region, enough to generate those shallow cumulus showers and soft hail. Will make for an icy slippery morning!

Graupel showers at Shepherdswell 125m asl NW of Dover. A mighty 1-2 cms of snow here now dusted with graupel (soft hail) which can fall from the shallow cumulus formed as -10 uppers move over the +9c Straits of Dover.

Its funny you should mention that. Drove along the A2 to Dover. Snow at Shepherdswell junction and light smatterings to Whitfield. Clear to Dover Castle. Then I see the vista across the Dover Strait and what greeted me ? The snow-clad hillsides and fields over the Nord pas de Calais in absurdly clean air that seems to reduce distance so I could almost reach out and touch it. Clearly a good streamer dumping over there.

THAT is interesting.

Yes. At the moment the convergence zone of 2 streams of wind is around the Capes of north east France. From around 3am the convergence zone (and streamer activity) should develop over easternmost Kent. Sadly the colder uppers will still be the wrong side of the channel - so only places say 5 miles away from a windward coast and with 120m + altitude will do well - sweetspot likely to be Whitfield north of Dover. Second phase is as streamer moves offshore about 11am just as the colder air digs in (ha!) this offers the chance of lighter SNOW showers widely across much of Kent as uppers drop as low as -10 before moisture is squeezed out and the last showers dribble out around midnight.

Frankly, an eminently sensible approach. I too IMBY expect almost nothing. I expect a slushy dusting up on them thar hills tho.

The problem is, Daniel, that risk (liklihood) the colder air arrives after the streamer has passed. Then we're into increasingly feeble showers created by uplift of an increasingly stable air-mass so places in the North Downs and just south like Ashford may do well out of that later in the day.

After midnight is when the DP drops and the wind swings E of N?

Yes. But that 10cms will amount to nowt a/ if theres no precip! and b/ if the temp is above 0 so....a slushy mass of a few cms is not out of the question. hills above 150m maybe 3-4 cms max???? Dover will not be the place to be Daniel - simply too near the E coast and too low. Somewhere in the east Kent massif like Whitfield 4 miles N or Capel le Ferne or Paddleswrth possibly or even further inland at the likes of alpine Hastingleigh at 175m. As someone (Daniel?) said, we shall see.

A hi-res model showing accumulated precipitation by Thursday night. Shows over 10mm in some parts of the east. With -8 to -10 uppers there is a chance some hillier parts might catch as much as 10mm or rainfall equivalent

Last shower was rainy sleety stuff. Hope for better come Thursday but not overly optimistic.

Looks like another sleet then snow then sleet shower incoming here in Dover Orange glow to my north east

Cold air forcing in on Friday on 12Z gfs:

GFS centric posting needs balance . Here's the Chinese perspective:

This current blob is brilliant for Surrey and Sussex. Keep the snow reports coming. Heres the updated SE Met O forecast for later today onwards: A cold day with outbreaks of rain and sleet, with snow on hills where a slight covering is possible. Perhaps just the odd brighter interval, mainly in the west. Maximum Temperature 5C. Tonight:Cold with further wintry showers, mainly affecting Kent where some snow may settle on the North Downs especially. Mainly dry with patchy frost elsewhere. Minimum Temperature 0C. Sunday:Further wintry showers on Sunday across Kent. Elsewhere it should be largely dry. Some sunny intervals are likely but the cold northerly wind will continue. Maximum Temperature 6C. Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:Remaining cold throughout with widespread frost. Further snow showers likely these mainly confined to Kent at first, but they could push further inland by Wednesday. Updated at: 0240 on Sat 31 Jan 2015

Thank you.

ECM 120 postage stamps - anyone got the link?