SMU

ECM 144 in a Easterly wind I actually give up....

ECM 120- You have to laugh as the ECM alligns with the IKON.. Lol what a merry go round.... Wheres that computer smash GIF

No it was a lot more than that- Suites inc MOGREPS package leading UKMO update yesterday.. Anyway. lets see where the evening goes- Im on holiday till sunday so im happy theres a delay !!

So despite the early excitement from the IKON & GFs moving the shortwave early doors its been all down hill from there similar to 2012 the models have picked up a shortwave at 144 that will impede the retrograde North of the High- GFS / UKMO / GEM all now positive in the tilted atlantic- ECM had this last 2 runs- Pretty Pony TBH.

try again

So then for the haters, The IKON is going to own the GFS here around the s/wave

finally a pidgeon step from the GFS trigger low appears - the first steps...

So I have 20 mins spare to try & tap as fast as possible- I think theres probably a lot of people out there really scratching their heads on this one trying to make head / tails of whats going on- We have for some time known about the warming & the approx date where it bottomed out- within that though what the response would be from the troposhere - I do subscribe to background signals leading up to & supporting the warming - however post warming I believe whatever the background state whether that be neutral or nina based that signal in itself would be totally neutralised against the reverse zonal flow that develops as a result- So for once things are stacked towards colder blocking synoptics & within that more significanltly is reduced easterly movement of the jet - Now the warming has landed we are now at the business end of the evolution- & thats still very much up for grabs in the models - In terms of loose general trends the models show 2 distinct transitional times 1) around 96-144 With a high building NE out of the azores 2) High pressure in situ 'somewhere' close to NW europe retrograding & 'expanding' Northwards allowing for a larger parcel of Cold air to cascade underneath it. All models have diagreements on how evolution 1 works which then net impacts the exact location of the retrograde high ( or in the ECM Op no retrograde )- To trigger or not? Before we decide what we believe from the models we should recognise that the SSW of this magnitude & its influence are rarely modelled- maybe once a decade & so each model is going to respond differently depending on its resolution & if its a 'high' top model - Whatever the case is though- it clear the form book for whether a model is usually great or average isnt to be taken as gospel for this scenario- So the SSW has been a bit of a leveller there- In my mind We then try to break down what models could be correct / wrong with the shortwave trigger & with such a 50/50 split you can only rely on historic performance in that the GFS doesnt do well with energy moving south / South east - It always likes to go North East. Based on that & the fact that consistency wise GEM / IKON & somewhat the UKMO have generally been on that page then I am calling the GFS wrong & ECM- with a note that the middle ground could be the landing zone - which is the NW atlantic being slightly further East like ECM - but not to go as far as to say that the trigger shortwave & easterlies would start to encroach the UK at day 6-7... So my shout would be a watered down easterly flow initially, more favourable in the south - but becoming mor influential day 6-8 (144-192 ) as the high retrogrades- Something like the 00z GEM is my super ensemble mean today. moving onto the second phase - The profile of the high indicates that a natural burst of WAA to the pole is the order of the day, the ECM alligns that NNE & theres the problem being positive in the tilt means winds would at best be SE flow- However all the cold runs allign the high more Northwards or with a hint of NW - that then allowing for an undercut- Again due to the SSW conditiona favour less pos tilt & mor neutralness which is fine... Models discounted:' ECM OP- Winter 17/18 performance blighted by over progressive runs about day 4-6 out from Blocking scenarios from the NE- ECM appears to throw to much energy east at day 5 onwards- The model has also backtracked ovrnight to th expected outlook--- GFS OP 06z No trigger shortwave - Historic bias shows the model cannot move energy South... IKON / UK / NAVGEM UKMO occasionally has the bias of to much energy in the southern arm on the split scenario so while models like this winter have moved to the UKMO the UKMO model has backtracked slightly as well this winter back to the less amplified / extreme progressive scenarios which are todays 'cold in early' cluster. That leaves me with the GEM 00z which is my forecast evolution > Cold through the mid term from the watered down trigger low - but not especially cold as the initial easterly isnt deep enough- but post that the retrograde is in peak position to undercut the block similar to what the meto updates have been saying-.... Best S

can we read read the post to identify that there wasnt a winner declared - just observations on form & where models sit-

seasonality -ECM OP the biggest outlier in the suite- I will do an update later but all ECMs failings this winter are still appearing in this current output UKMO is the big win today NB following the IKON The middle ground is still ok without the trigger shortwave delivering for UK - GEM shows the middle ground with a the correctly positioned WAA pulse north to build the high- ECM looks way to positivly tilted- S

ECM 00z backtrack from 120 yesterday to 96 today Note the better profile now at 96 on the. right--

not really it doesnt matter tbh - what do you think the vefirication is going to be for the next 10 days based on the last 5 days modelling for europe because it certainly wont be the ECM - no need for data- just the fact that UKMOhas completely followed the IKONS outputs today & now at 96 the ECM is edging closer--- S

Things still coming along nicely now - IKON > UKMO has now followed to a suitable scenario - Can the ECM make it a full house? Far to many lemmings on here last night jumping off the cliff !

^^ sadly thats a long time past !! years ago --... Onto the models - The newly appointed front runner the Ikon is up & running...

No one said it doesnt effect the net energy in the system, its just to much of a coincidental event that in 15 years of people discussing net energy of the jet that a solar burst could suddenly arrive on the scene at the precise moment where it would suddenly scupper an evolution that was 4 days ahead- No one had mentioned the sun before in isolation & noone has mentioned it again- onto the ECM op- its 2.5c warmer at day 10 than the mean that has now dropped to 2c... ( from 3-4 before ) So the signal is getting stronger--

The notion that solar activity impacted the jet by a few MPH creating a shortwave in the wrong place is sadly nonsence- The models just got it wrong plain & simple- ... In terms of tonights models theres not a 'huge' amount between the cold or less cold - GFS / GEM V ECM - just a matter of how the high & the subsequent WAA alligns - colder runs are negative in the tilt ( or neutral ) - the milder ones are along the positive side - plum neutral is the best case scenario..

maybe look at the UKMO 168...

Hot off the press ECM mean- 216- No issues here - Greenland wedge more neutral in its tilt-

JMA sits better with me with a diluted down trigger low

Another awful ECM - might be better @192 but it really has been dreadful over the last 5 days - for inconsistency & overall blocking theme...

50:50 at the mo as in cold early doors. Im desperate for it to hold off until sat - The best ENS are the ones that land the deep cold Fri / Sat -- The early ones are nit so good for prolonged snow - however the GEM lands great all the way through- My gut feeling UKMO / GEFS slow progression with Thurs onwards being the optimal time... S

Interesting that every GFS ens has the trigger shortwave except the operational !!!!

GEM is the best run since the internet for england !

The easy summary tonight for cold NAVGEM / IKON / GEM ( beast ) fast for cold with shortwave trigger UKMO middle ground at 144 - cold in 168-192 GFs slowest evolution - cold in @216

The easy summary tonight for cold NAVGEM / IKON / GEM ( beast ) fast for cold with shortwave trigger UKMO middle ground at 144 - cold in 168-192 GFs slowest evolution - cold in @216 S