bobbydog

After 10 years on this forum, I'm well aware of that... doesn't stop us hoping though....

I haven't woken up to a magical winter wonderland for nearly 8 years.... Extended cold, snowy weather or not. The 12z has something for everyone. Just once... this time... please....

To be fair, strat charts don't change as dramatically as trop charts so they're much more reliable. Here's a chart of the warming at just 72 hours, to keep you going...

It can take anything from a few days to a few weeks. The GFS is showing a complete vortex split in week 2. So... potentially... we could be seeing some classic charts showing very soon...

Whilst everyone is worrying about the next few days giving us a few snowflakes, (though I for one would love to see it..) we should be looking (wishing) for a cold pool to spill into Europe. Has anyone seen what's going on 'upstairs'?..... Now that... is a rare thing of beauty...

This... says we have a very good chance of something to look forward to...

Storm? What storm?....

Well I never...! IDO being optimistic??!! Dust off the sledges!! Winter's back on!

It probably won't but why depress yourself watching the same old rubbish churned out by the models. It does change, it can take time, so why not concentrate on real life in the meantime? Weather/model watching can become an obsession. It's good to take a break sometimes...

If you're thanking someone for relaying their weather-related thoughts on a weather forum, you will have a lot of thanking to do... On the other hand, if you are just throwing a bit of sarcasm about, a Model Forum Host is probably not the best person to aim it at...

It would be a memorable storm for all the wrong reasons....

I know. You can't polish a turd But you can put glitter on it...

Positives..... It won't be mild, southerly tracking jet, No European blocking. *awaits the 'negatives' posts.... Does there have to be any?....

Maybe there is some hope for this winter. Pure speculation of course but maybe the GFS is showing us the route out of this "zonal" rut. We have a very strong, monster of a trop PV in the latter stages of the run- However, with what's going on 'up there' It's enough to de-stabilise the PV causing it to rip itself apart by the end of the run. You just never know....

Ah, no, they only mentioned "considerable uncertainty". It was me who mentioned snow. The GFS has shown the possibility so it's not off the table...

It's been a common theme recently. It's in the first line in the 27th Dec to 5th Jan forecast. They obviously don't see much consistency in the models either.

I wouldn't put too much faith in the model output beyond a week at most. When the world leading Met Office are using terms like "considerable uncertainty" in their own forecasts, it could go in any direction... even snow... (We live in hope...)

Going by the 11 year (roughly) cycle, we are at the equivalent of 2008/2009 by timescale and we have surpassed the space-age record minima this year. There was a decent snowfall in february 2009 and 2009/10 and 2010/11 were two of the snowiest winters I have experienced since living in the south east (30 years) after moving down from the north east. Obviously there are no fixed rules where the weather is concerned but we are long overdue a decent spell of snowy weather. Bear in mind some of the most memorable snowfalls have only really lasted a week or two...

Not great is it? I had some optimism for this winter due to the deep solar minimum we have entered.

Nothing particularly of note in today's runs, apart from a few snowflakes in F.I. Still plenty of uncertainty, so lots of scope for change.

That's not how it works. I can't even be bothered....

All is not lost... Getting toasty up there...

Just to reiterate what Carinthian said regarding model volatility and of course the fickle nature of the weather itself, here's a snapshot of the 00z- It shows a countrywide snow event lasting a few days. However unlikely it is, it at very least shows we are not necessarily stuck in a mild rut for the rest of winter. Keep the faith- things can and do change at very short notice....

Fortunately, I remember the seasonals 'signposting' mild for winter 2010...

Why all the doom and gloom about F.I.? The trop vortex is showing no signs of getting itself together, The colder 850's are creeping ever closer, And the strat, which is always more reliable in modelling terms, is showing a potential warming event. This only takes us up to the 3rd of December! Give winter a chance, it hasn't even started yet....