Polar Maritime

Models are fandabidoobi this morning !

Relatively quiet sunspot 1947 decided to give us a little departing gift before rotating onto the west limb. The active region produced an M3.6 solar flare. Protons are sky high due to the X Flare yesterday...

Bitter.. Time to get the Long Johns out i think.

Even better runs this morning, with the colder air pushing further West.. -10 -11 850's touching most of the UK. Another exiting day ahead, some Eastern promise could soon be with us ! But i would continue to apply caution in detail, as im sure there there will be many different evolutions yet over our little Island, but cold is certainly on it's way. It's nice to get this chap out...

An early CME prediction model has been released following the X1.2 solar flare. The model is predicting the fast moving CME to deliver an almost direct blow to our geomagnetic field late on January 8th (Wednesday), early January 9th.

Thanks for the reminder CR, some nice live footage now from Norway, wish i was there ! Hopefully the UK may see something over the next week... X-FLARE HUGE SUNSPOT TARGETS EARTH: Giant sunspot AR1944 erupted on Jan 7th at approximately 1832 UT, producing a powerful X1-class solar flare. First-look coronagraph images from the STEREO-Ahead spacecraft appear to show a coronal mass ejection (CME) emerging from the blast site. If so, the CME is almost certainly heading for Earth. http://www.spaceweather.com/

Indeed Fred, im still waiting for the Atlantic to slow down ! More positive runs tonight, but we can now start to see the need for a second bite to bring us something of note.

A major X1.2 solar flare just !

LINK TO Dr Strongs TALK AT NASA Goddard Space Flight Center on 6 December: http://mediastream.ndc.nasa.gov/publi...

A strong M7.2 solar flare was just observed around sunspot 1944... Which is directly facing Earth.

Im glad you are in a warmer house that your last one, will be much better insulated to withstand the cold over there ! And no more life threatening cycle rides to work..

Looking at the signals you may need your Winter coat more often by the end of next week Botty, I hope you cope ok with the frigid cold they get over there ! You are in the best place for it.

Yes a long way to go yet, the pattern change has not even started in reality, folks must be patient, as it will be towards the end of week until we are any clearer on whether we will get a bite this time round. At least the Atlantic is slowly coming to a halt, which will leave us open to a much better chance for cold, so at least we are on a gradual cool now, Im with W.E and a few more that the models will flop about as per usual ... with the 2nd attempt being the one that brings the real goods, As Chio stated a few days ago, in line with his statt forecast. Lot's of interest in the models over the days to come.

Finally the GFS catches up at last, still lot's more flip/flopping to come but nice to see all three on board, Phew !

Worth a look... http://vimeo.com/79902085

Well after last year i shall wait until April.

These images were taken by photographer George Karbus this morning at 7:30 in Lahinch. You can see what the beach looks like on a calm day.. His facebook page can be found here:https://www.facebook.com/pages/George-Karbus-Photography/125621960817621

Yes you can see the Fog in the bottom left of the pic's, which were taken from the trail at Friden

GFS, ECM..

Tas turned ruff ! Feels much colder today. Heavy rain and gusty, Temp 3.5c, Dp 2.8, Wind Chill 0.3c. S/W 7mph Gusting 38mph.

Some more here same credit, none of mine have been played with.

Here's 2 from this morning Paul, Credit- Polar Maritime- R.J.W.

Is that Shed ramping.. The trend seems to keep growing stronger for a colder last 3rd of Jan, very positive signs from the models this morning. I think this is where the real interest starts as the models start to look beyond the turnaround point over the coming days. Very interesting times for us model watches.

Observation at 7:50am A slight dusting of snow here this morning, very icy with an overnight ground frost, a low of -0.6c. Current temp 0.3c, Dp 0.4c, Wind Chill -1.2c. S/W 4mph